“Newsweek” revealed an interior Law and Justice poll. Kaczyński organization has the support of 35% of voters

“Newsweek” revealed the results of an interior survey conducted on behalf of the Law and Justice, which show that Jarosław Kaczyński's group enjoys 35 percent support. This result, although solid, does not give the organization the ability to govern itself, which is the subject of political reflection of observers and commentators. In polls published by various media, the result of the Law and Justice goes up and down all period – it is frequently very akin to supporting the Civic Coalition. Both groups run a peculiar race for priority, and the polling tribunal erstwhile ranks PO before the Law and Justice, another time vice versa.

From anonymous sources close to the organization headquarters, we learn that the PiS "is only 3 percent points short" of self-management. "We are returning" – 1 of the politicians was going to say so briefly in a conversation with journalists, suggesting that the forthcoming political phase could bring the formation back to full power.

It is worth noting that the consequence of 35 percent refers to the survey without taking into account the indecisive, which means that in reality the level of declared electoral support may be even higher. specified polls, although unofficial and non-official, are of considerable value in organization calculations and election plans. They point not only to real social facilities, but to mobilise for action, support morale and frequently service to convince private activists that they can exit the opposition bend.

At the same time, there are also polls – published, publically available – which show a much more diverse image of the political scene. For example, SW investigation reveals that the majority government of the Civic Coalition would be the best option in the opinion of nearly 20% of respondents, while 13.8 percent point to the government of the Law and Justice and 13.3 percent point to the independent regulation of the Law and Justice. The structure of support is thus visible between the various political constellations, which means that 35 % interior support does not automatically translate into the ability to get a parliamentary majority.

The opposition to attempts to make broad right-wing coalitions was besides reflected in political comments. Jarosław Kaczyński clearly indicated that he did not intend to share power with the Confederation. In interviews and statements, PiS politicians frequently cut off from possible agreements with this formation, indicating most frequently the immaturity of cooperation or insufficient experience of their leaders, especially in comparison with PiS characters like Mateusz Morawiecki.

Inside the circles of the Law and Justice there is simply a clear tension with the Confederacy, as Jarosław Kaczyński clearly said during 1 of the meetings with sympathizers, claiming that the Confederacy, if it had entered into a coalition with the Civic Platform, would have been on the anti-Polish and anti-patriot side – which he considered to be something that could be called a national betrayal. In a akin tone, a fewer days ago, Kaczyński reiterated that it must be the government of the Law and Justice, and any joint action with the Confederation is excluded, pointing out that he does not see the anticipation of ruling with Mentzen. In columnaries and publicist comments, it is more and more common to hear observations that the PiS is thus trying to strangle the Confederacy, and rhetoric has taken the form of delicate but clear threats.

This tension is of additional importance in the context of the debate between erstwhile Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the leader of the Confederation, Sławomir Mentzen, organized as part of the “Beer with Mentzen” event. The discussion focused on economics, innovation, public finances and improvement model. Mentzen powerfully questioned the point of placing himself on innovation, arguing that at low labour costs this is simply a hazard and that is usually the waste of money. Morawiecki listened with amazement, saying he did not believe his ears. In the further part of the event, Mentzen was harshly rejected, stating that he should not have come there at all, due to the fact that Mentzen's statements about Jarosław Kaczyński were absolutely unacceptable.

Analysis in social media confirmed Morawiecki's dominance in this debate – summary Data home Res Futura describes the event as one-man Morawiecki. They indicate that the erstwhile Prime Minister dominated the conversation through concrete, given and technocratic precision, which attracted the approval of even part of the Confederate electorate. The scope of the event was as much as 18 million, with 42 percent of the comments being affirmative for Morawiecki, and only 18 percent for Mentzen. According to the report, Mentzen – effective in memical format – lost communicative consistency in a serious debate.

In the light of these events, an interior PiS poll, indicating 35 percent of support, takes on a broader context: the organization seeks to strengthen its position and avoid cooperation with the Confederate, while Morawiecki showed strength in public debate, which could in fact weaken Mentzen's competitive narrative. This political scene takes on an increasingly polarizing character in which the PiS builds not only a polling but besides a communicative and strategical advantage, marginalizing the Confederacy and strengthening its leaders.

The political scene in Poland is increasingly faced with the question of the future of the coalition and the government, which can appear after the next elections. Citizen Coalition, Nowa Lewica, Poland 2050 and PSL – i.e. ruling formations now – evidence declines in polls and there are concerns that they will not be able to recreate the current coalition after the election. In specified a situation, the increasing position of the PiS may be an alternative, especially if the formation can exceed the threshold consequence and gather allies around it, although – at least present – it is simply a hypothetical scenario, not a certainty.

From the position of the observer, it is worth noting 2 dimensions of the polling reality: internal, built in organization staffs, and external, published in the media, which reflects the social sympathy and level of voter reporting. Another aspect is the dynamics of change – the results of the Law and Justice Office are inactive close. 1 period may lead the opposition, the next – the return of the Law and Justice to the first place. High-level stableness for both formations indicates that tiny fragments of electorates are attached to their preferences, and the movement in the polls is mainly a flow of indecisive or little mobile groups.

From the election perspective, the Law and Justice has a solid foundation, but not a set – the ability to govern itself is inactive beyond reach. In the context of the campaign, 35 percent is simply a consequence that gives a good position to negociate and mobilise, but does not let marginalisation of the opposition or the creation of clear government scenarios without the approval of another groups.

This discourse is all the more intense as the PiS signals the desire to govern itself, cuts off from the Confederacy's support, and interior polls are utilized as arguments in interior debates and mobilizing discourse. interior 35 percent shows that the PiS electorate – even if it does not win the elections alone – is strong adequate to exert a real influence on policy and negotiation. By analyzing all this together, we see a political scene more unpredictable than the polls of a fewer years ago. present the parties balance on akin levels, and the balance of forces can decision crucially in the coming months. The PiS may appear from the opposition from inside this device of poll persuasion – interior and public, strengthen the image and accomplish mobilization. But he inactive has a long way to go to the full political autonomy that self-governments give.