New! Poland is not ready to attack from the air

wbijamszpile.pl 10 months ago

The events of 26 August 2023, erstwhile during the massive attack on Ukraine in Polish airspace an unidentified object was to enter, raised serious doubts about the effectiveness of Polish defence systems. Although first reports indicated the detection of an unknown object on radar, it was announced after 10 days of search that no airspace breach was likely to occur. This raised questions about whether Poland is not ready for an air strike sufficiently protected against possible threats, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and fresh incidents involving drones.

On the day of the Russian attack on Ukraine, radar systems in Poland registered an object that allegedly flew into Polish airspace. The military immediately took action – all anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence systems were launched, steams were lifted into the air, and ground and air troops began searching in Lublin Voivodeship. Operational Commander Gen. Maciej Klisz informed that the facility was confirmed radiolocationally by at least 3 radiolocation stations, which seemed to be conclusive evidence of a breach of Polish space.

However, after respective days of intensive search, covering both air and ground activities, the object was not found. Finally, after 10 days of action, Operations Command reported that "very advanced probability" there was no airspace breach. This kind of termination caused serious misunderstandings and questions about the quality of the Polish air defence system.

“We do not let any negligence”

The national defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, in an effort to calm public opinion, stressed that all actions were in accordance with the procedures in force.

We do not underestimate any signals – after the incidental with the rocket under Bydgoszcz we introduced fresh recommendations and now all radar way is being checked thoroughly," said the minister.

Despite his assurances about full control of the situation, there are expanding doubts about the real effectiveness of Polish radar systems and consequence procedures. Isn't Poland ready for an air strike?

Kosiniak-Kamysz besides added that the verification of signals from radars lasted respective days, and the military searched over 250 km2 in the Lublin Voivodeship, utilizing drones, helicopters and specialized units of the Territorial defence Army. However, no object was found, suggesting that Poland could misidentify the breach of its airspace.

Polish airspace like a holed sieve?

The full situation raises serious questions about the state of the Polish air defence system. Repeated incidents of airspace violations over the last 2 years, including the tragedy in the Wire, where 2 people died as a consequence of the fall of the missile, and an unidentified rocket found in the vicinity of Bydgoszcz, cast a shadow on the effectiveness of the protection of Polish borders.

The problem seems to be not only the method defence infrastructure, but besides the procedures and their consistency with the real threat. The fact that the object was detected at 3 radiolocation stations, but failed to find it, may propose serious deficiencies in the accuracy of radar systems.

As the gene indicated. Film, in consequence to the incident, analysis of the operation of systems is planned to optimise them and avoid akin situations in the future. But will that be adequate to warrant safety?

Russian drones – Belarus reacted efficiently

The incidental with an unidentified object in Poland reminds of another threat - Russian drones, which regularly violate the airspace of neighbouring countries. On 5 September 2024, Russian Shahed drones attacked the north of Ukraine, and any of them penetrated Belarus. The independent Belaruski Hajun portal reported that 2 unmanned men flew into the Belarusian area of the homel region, which triggered an immediate reaction of the Belarusian armed forces.

In consequence to a breach of airspace, Belarusian fighters launched from a military base in Baranovich and most likely shot down Russian Shaheds. This shows that Belarus, despite its cooperation with Russia, effectively reacted to the threat, protecting its airspace. Although the Belarusian authorities have not officially commented on this incident, their fast consequence contrasts with the problems encountered by Poland in monitoring and protecting their air borders.

This kind of activity of Belarus indicates the efficiency of their defence systems and the fast consequence of the armed forces. Faced with an expanding threat from Russian drones and missiles, the Belarusian authorities cannot ignore the threats, even if they are linked to the actions of their strategical ally. Although Belarusian propaganda can convince the public that Ukrainian drones violate their borders, military action shows that regardless of political narrative, airspace safety is taken seriously.

Can Poland learn from Belarus? Air attack

Of course not. We should beat Minsk to the head. However, in the context of these events, questions about the tightness of the Polish air defence strategy become even more pressing. If Belarus, despite its alliance with Russia, can respond effectively to violations of airspace, why does Poland, a associate of NATO, have a problem with that?

The fast and effective consequence of the Belarusian armed forces sheds light on deficiencies in the Polish air defence system. Should Poland, with advanced technology and support of NATO allies, not be able to act equally efficiently?

Accident with rocket under Bydgoszcz – inactive unanswered

The ambiguities surrounding the fresh incidental match the case of the Ch-55 rocket, which fell in the vicinity of Bydgoszcz in December 2022. At that time, radio-location systems detected the rocket, but its search began only after a fewer months. It was only in April 2023 that her remains were found, which raised serious doubts as to whether Poland was able to effectively monitor its airspace.

MON Deputy Cezary Tomczyk admitted that radar systems had located the rocket at the time, but later actions were inadequate.

We knew about the rocket the same way we knew about the drone, but no 1 was looking for it. Later it was pretended not to be found," said Tomczyk, referring to the rocket incidental close Bydgoszcz.

Does Poland now repeat the same mistakes, ignoring threats?

Working with NATO does not solve problems

Although Polish commanders and politicians emphasize that Poland works in close cooperation with NATO allies, questions about the effectiveness of these actions remain. NATO provides support in the monitoring of airspace, but the work for actions in its own territory lies with Poland. Meanwhile, many incidents with Russian rockets and drones show that the Polish defence strategy has serious gaps.

Experts inform that Poland, as a border country with Ukraine, which is at war, should have modern and precise air defence systems. Any ambiguity in the operation of radiolocation systems can lead to tragic effects akin to those in the Wire.

What's next? The request for modernisation and greater transparency

Recent events point to the urgent request to modernise Polish air defence systems. Poland is not ready for an air strike. Although the military acted in accordance with the procedures, the very fact that there was specified a serious misunderstanding should prompt decision-makers to rethink their border protection strategy. Poland, which is bordering on the armed conflict, must be certain that any possible threat will be identified and adequately neutralised.

Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz assures that verification of radar signals was accurate and the military acted in accordance with procedures. However, the situation in which the search is cancelled despite earlier signals about the breach raises serious doubts about the effectiveness of the Polish defence system. Poland cannot afford specified a "hole sieve", especially in the face of the escalation of the conflict in the east.