Aleksander Kisil: To consciousness - You gotta build a CPK!
date:25 January 2024 Editor: Anna
CPK is for Poland, not for any organization or government. It will be a gateway for goods and passengers of Poland and Poles around the world. present we bear quite a few costs that we deficiency infrastructure, connections with many places in the world, and the transport of people and goods from and to Poland takes place through German, Dutch or another ports.
The concept of central airport for Poland was born in the 1970s. In 2003, the SLD government conducted a feasibility survey of the fresh airport in Mszczonowo, in 2006 – the government of the Law and Justice Service survey and 3 locations, including Mszczon and Baranów (designed capacity: 70 million passengers), in 2010 the PO-PSL government conducted a survey for the fresh airport – whether the extension of Okęcia or the fresh airport – and the advice was unequivocal: to build a fresh airport, due to the fact that it would be disastrous for the improvement of Poland. In 2015, the government of Ewa Kopacz announced a improvement plan with Central Airport.
CPK is not expected to be just an airport, but a modern hub, i.e. a transfer and cargo airport, serving the full region of Central and east Europe – from Elbe to Dniepr, from Helsinki to Sofia. We can make quite a few money on this. We are at the centre of a very rapidly developing region of Europe, and individual has to make this improvement happen. Designed communication threads from CPK spread across Central and east Europe. The function of the hub besides serving passengers and companies from Lithuania, Estonia Latvia, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. will besides translate into the alleged soft power of Poland, to its greater importance in the region. LOT is already acquiring many passengers from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. For many passengers from these countries moving within the region, Warsaw is the main interchange point and accounts for 40-50% of intra-region traffic.
Aviation links with the planet and advanced levels of communication are a prerequisite for economical development. We are the 21st economy in the world, and aeronautics ranks 38th (in Europe, 6th state and 15th state). In relation to the population, air communications ranks us in Europe at 31st place, in relation to GDP at 35th place (sic! almost at the end!)
Today there is an environmental decision on the CPK, there is simply a master-plan, there is simply a concept design, the construction task is tightened up, within 6-9 months it is possible to get a location decision, all permits and construction permits. The airport will have a spatial reserve and modular structure, so it can be expanded.
The CPK offers fresh possibilities: more long flights, the break-out of Poland from the position of semi-periphery, the operation of flights for 24 hours/day, which cannot be in Warsaw (night excluded due to noise), the air traffic is followed by an increase in trade – example of Poland-Korea Pd.: without the improvement of air connections between Poland and Korea there would not be specified an increase in economical cooperation. In 2015, exports from Poland to Korea amounted to USD 692 million. We opened the airline connection at the end of 2016, and in 2021 export was already 1.27 billion USD. Now LOT launches another connection from Wrocław to Seoul. This shows how crucial aviation is to the world's largest corporations.
CPK is simply a chance for modernity, due to the fact that you can usage the experience gathered by planet aviation for over 100 years.
The CPK is very well placed in environmental trends (trends to overdosing passengers from aircraft to local rail connections) of the EU.
The construction of the CPK airport will let to close Chopin airport, and this means the recovery of good areas in Warsaw for investments, while Warsaw is choking. The inhabitants of Warsaw will gain silence.
There is besides a military aspect, national security: The CPK is needed for fast deployment of military forces.
Finally, it would be a pity to waste the existing expenditure and preparations for the construction of the CPK airport and, after all, the withdrawal of contracts would entail major financial penalties.
The CPK will let LOT to make to the position of planet lines serving many directions worldwide. In this way, the improvement of our national airlines would besides be animated. Hub CPK can, for example, operate calls from India to various destinations in Europe and on the east coast of the USA and Canada. LOT should focus on growth based on a increasing wave of request in Poland and Central and east Europe and the construction of attractive passenger transfer connections from India, the mediate East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. If a fewer percent of this immense and ever-growing global marketplace of LOT is already in decline, it will be a success and crucial revenue.
The aviation marketplace will grow – this is due to the steady increase in average income in Polish society. At the same time, the average yearly growth rate of the aviation marketplace is 14%. Our Polish propensity to fly is inactive much smaller than in the West: for 1 Pole there are 1,3 air trips per year, erstwhile in Germany or France they are almost 3 air trips per year.
Counter-arguments against CPK airport are irrational:
· expected giants – no, due to the fact that it will be the 12th airport in Europe;
· The airport can be unprofitable – it is not, due to the fact that already moving traffic from Okęcia will guarantee that the CPK airport is able to gain money. The improvement of Poland and the wealth of Poles will consequence in an increase in travellers, so profitability will be (taking into account that the Polish economy will grow by 2.5% per year, in 2040, with $25,000 GDP/head we can scope 2.6 travel/person per year, which will give the marketplace about 100 million passengers per year, the more so that future seniors will be more open to flying than the current 65- or 75-year-old)
· It is said that local airports will endure – it is not true, due to the fact that the proximity and capacity of the CPK as a hub can even aid make local airports, and it will not harm, due to the fact that most of the traffic from local airports are low-cost connections that will stay there; thanks to the existence of a large aviation hub 40-50 minutes of flight from a given local port, with respective regular flights, the connectivity of regions to the planet will greatly improve. Furthermore, home connections represent a single percent of flights from Polish regional airports, so even their full disappearance (which is unrealistic) would not be a crucial blow to these ports;
· The construction will take a very long time – it does not have to, the Turks built an airport of 90 million passengers in 4 years;
· The journey will be longer, due to the fact that we will gotta scope the CPK – no, the overall journey to different places in the planet will be shorter, due to the fact that there will be much more direct connections from the CPK;
· The construction of CPK will cost a lot – it is not true, due to the fact that with the appropriate ownership structure (Polish State 51% and private investors 49%) and good financing of the yearly budget for the construction of CPK airport will not exceed respective billion PLN;
We request a port to service 35-40 million passengers now. In addition, it is expected to be a hub airport, i.e. providing the anticipation of comfortable transfers and operating many passengers from outside Poland. all country that wants to make and build a strong economy needs to be connected to the world. Without this, we will not be able to get abroad investments, and our companies will not grow their presence in another markets. This is not just about prestige and soft power, which must not be overlooked, but above all about hard business. Without connectivity, there's no development. Without our own strong air carrier rooted in an effective aviation hub, we will not guarantee optimal communication between Poland and the world.
CPK as a LOT hub is not a naive dream. LOT returns to evidence flights to 10 million passengers, most of whom will usage Chopin Airport. In this port, around 30% of all passengers are transfer passengers (shifting on further flights). This is simply a good score close to the port of Amsterdam. Passengers from Scandinavia flying to the mediate East, Israel or India to Western Europe or the US will be able to control to CPK. LOT of these travellers already operates in Warsaw and could do so on a much larger scale if not for the limited capacity of the port of Chopin. Giving up this improvement chance would be irrational and simply harmful to Poland.
This does not preclude the admission to CPK of another large carriers. Looking at marketplace developments, we can presume that fresh carriers will appear on the CPK.
Sometimes there is an thought of a duo-port (Warsaw-Modlin), but this is simply a complete misunderstanding. No 1 will want to fly like this: fly to Modlin, train or taxi to the port of Chopin and there search further connection! It would be killing the thought of a hub. It won't work, and it won't work.
There has been an exhaustion of capacity at Chopin Airport, this airport is no longer expandable due to the fact that there is no place and there are environmental limits due to the sound that has already been reached. Any economical account of Okęcia's expansion did not match. The traffic at Chopin Airport is limited to 600 operations per day and this limit was already reached at the highest of the 2019 summertime season. To this should be added maximum operating limits on a belt and we see that in the arrival or departure waves already in the port of Chopin there is no capacity. We must besides bear in head that Chopin Airport is tiny – it is 1 of the smallest surface ports in Europe and its expansion possibilities are very limited. For comparison in Warsaw we have 880ha, Paris airport Charles de Gaulle takes 3000ha and the fresh airport in Istanbul as much as 7000ha. Many factors affect airport capacity. This, in addition to the capacity of the terminal itself and the permitted number of air operations, besides the number of take-offs and landings per hour, the hours of operation of the port (Chopin can not operate at night), the capacity of the non-Schengen zone, the efficiency of the baggage sorting area (too tiny for current needs and outdated), the number of parking and unloading stations, or even the ability to supply adequate fuel. All these investments in Okęcie, including the construction of a parallel belt, are simply no longer available. And even if Chopin's port was expanded and his working time was extended, it would open up a can of sound compensation for the residents of the surrounding districts. These are possibly dense billions of PLN. The argument about modern, quieter aircraft is not covered in real sound measurements made at various points of the city.
On the another hand, there is simply a limit of 66 operations per day in Modlin, and the airport itself is surrounded by Natura 2000 sites and nature reserves. The prayer can be extended, but at what cost and for what purpose? This is making a large gift for Ryanair. Ryanair's passenger charges in fresh years were very low, 5 PLN per passenger, and the port itself was inactive under the line. Now the charges are expected to increase, but they will not be high, due to the fact that for all passenger carried above what it presently has, Ryanair would pay PLN 6 while enjoying this volume discount, while each fresh carrier would pay respective times more at the beginning. This discourages another carriers from beginning calls to Prayer.
Some ask whether, in an era of progressive consolidation in the aviation market, LOT is able to sustain itself. Consolidation seems to be a bigger threat than it truly is. It has been spoken of in Europe for years, but this process is not going fast and is not as deep as in the US, where we have 5 large carriers. Europe is different, it is hard for many countries to quit their own carriers for economical and political reasons. There are 180 million people in our region who fly about erstwhile a year. In 20 years the inhabitants will be possibly a small less, but they will be richer and will fly more frequently – this in practice means about 400 million passengers to manage. LOT should focus on growth based on the increasing wave of request in Poland and Central and east Europe and on the construction of good passenger transfer connections from India, the mediate East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. If he can take advantage of a fresh aviation hub like CPK, he can take advantage of this chance to succeed. Of course, there will be Western, Arab, Turkish competition, but for them our region will never be a priority.
The efficient airport with advanced capacity and reception capacity of all aircraft (including the largest freighters and military aircraft) at any time of the day, which is besides the hub for further connections, is besides an crucial origin for all investors, especially high-tech, as they require high-speed passenger and freight transport. Without CPK airport there will be no chance of obtaining many possible investments for Poland. The request for global cooperation forces the existence of advanced supply chains. Participation in these chains requires investment in infrastructure, including transport infrastructure. There is simply a request for cargo infrastructure at airports, e.g. the infrastructure of cold supply chains to guarantee safe transport of products or handling of dangerous goods. specified developed cargo infrastructure Warsaw can only dream about. The share of our country in European cargo air transport is about 1 percent, and most cargo air shipments to customers in Poland land at German airports, where they are transported by trucks. We're losing quite a few money this way. We are besides sold out to tiny Hungary: in 2021, Budapest airport operated twice as much cargo volume as Chopin airport (sic!) It's time to start making money on air cargo.
Poles want to proceed the task of the Central Communication Port. This is the consequence of the United Surveys poll for RMF FM and the diary of Legal Newspaper. 51 percent of Poles support the implementation of the CPK project.
If the CPK audit is not carried out under a pre-established thesis, then it has to come out that you request to build a CPK airport.
Dr. Alexander Kisil
Cybernetic, psychologist, counselor, trainer, speaker, author.
Aviation links with the planet and advanced levels of communication are a prerequisite for economical development. We are the 21st economy in the world, and aeronautics ranks 38th (in Europe, 6th state and 15th state). In relation to the population, air communications ranks us in Europe at 31st place, in relation to GDP at 35th place (sic! almost at the end!)
Today there is an environmental decision on the CPK, there is simply a master-plan, there is simply a concept design, the construction task is tightened up, within 6-9 months it is possible to get a location decision, all permits and construction permits. The airport will have a spatial reserve and modular structure, so it can be expanded.
The CPK offers fresh possibilities: more long flights, the break-out of Poland from the position of semi-periphery, the operation of flights for 24 hours/day, which cannot be in Warsaw (night excluded due to noise), the air traffic is followed by an increase in trade – example of Poland-Korea Pd.: without the improvement of air connections between Poland and Korea there would not be specified an increase in economical cooperation. In 2015, exports from Poland to Korea amounted to USD 692 million. We opened the airline connection at the end of 2016, and in 2021 export was already 1.27 billion USD. Now LOT launches another connection from Wrocław to Seoul. This shows how crucial aviation is to the world's largest corporations.
CPK is simply a chance for modernity, due to the fact that you can usage the experience gathered by planet aviation for over 100 years.
The CPK is very well placed in environmental trends (trends to overdosing passengers from aircraft to local rail connections) of the EU.
The construction of the CPK airport will let to close Chopin airport, and this means the recovery of good areas in Warsaw for investments, while Warsaw is choking. The inhabitants of Warsaw will gain silence.
There is besides a military aspect, national security: The CPK is needed for fast deployment of military forces.
Finally, it would be a pity to waste the existing expenditure and preparations for the construction of the CPK airport and, after all, the withdrawal of contracts would entail major financial penalties.
The CPK will let LOT to make to the position of planet lines serving many directions worldwide. In this way, the improvement of our national airlines would besides be animated. Hub CPK can, for example, operate calls from India to various destinations in Europe and on the east coast of the USA and Canada. LOT should focus on growth based on a increasing wave of request in Poland and Central and east Europe and the construction of attractive passenger transfer connections from India, the mediate East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. If a fewer percent of this immense and ever-growing global marketplace of LOT is already in decline, it will be a success and crucial revenue.
The aviation marketplace will grow – this is due to the steady increase in average income in Polish society. At the same time, the average yearly growth rate of the aviation marketplace is 14%. Our Polish propensity to fly is inactive much smaller than in the West: for 1 Pole there are 1,3 air trips per year, erstwhile in Germany or France they are almost 3 air trips per year.
Counter-arguments against CPK airport are irrational:
· expected giants – no, due to the fact that it will be the 12th airport in Europe;
· The airport can be unprofitable – it is not, due to the fact that already moving traffic from Okęcia will guarantee that the CPK airport is able to gain money. The improvement of Poland and the wealth of Poles will consequence in an increase in travellers, so profitability will be (taking into account that the Polish economy will grow by 2.5% per year, in 2040, with $25,000 GDP/head we can scope 2.6 travel/person per year, which will give the marketplace about 100 million passengers per year, the more so that future seniors will be more open to flying than the current 65- or 75-year-old)
· It is said that local airports will endure – it is not true, due to the fact that the proximity and capacity of the CPK as a hub can even aid make local airports, and it will not harm, due to the fact that most of the traffic from local airports are low-cost connections that will stay there; thanks to the existence of a large aviation hub 40-50 minutes of flight from a given local port, with respective regular flights, the connectivity of regions to the planet will greatly improve. Furthermore, home connections represent a single percent of flights from Polish regional airports, so even their full disappearance (which is unrealistic) would not be a crucial blow to these ports;
· The construction will take a very long time – it does not have to, the Turks built an airport of 90 million passengers in 4 years;
· The journey will be longer, due to the fact that we will gotta scope the CPK – no, the overall journey to different places in the planet will be shorter, due to the fact that there will be much more direct connections from the CPK;
· The construction of CPK will cost a lot – it is not true, due to the fact that with the appropriate ownership structure (Polish State 51% and private investors 49%) and good financing of the yearly budget for the construction of CPK airport will not exceed respective billion PLN;
We request a port to service 35-40 million passengers now. In addition, it is expected to be a hub airport, i.e. providing the anticipation of comfortable transfers and operating many passengers from outside Poland. all country that wants to make and build a strong economy needs to be connected to the world. Without this, we will not be able to get abroad investments, and our companies will not grow their presence in another markets. This is not just about prestige and soft power, which must not be overlooked, but above all about hard business. Without connectivity, there's no development. Without our own strong air carrier rooted in an effective aviation hub, we will not guarantee optimal communication between Poland and the world.
CPK as a LOT hub is not a naive dream. LOT returns to evidence flights to 10 million passengers, most of whom will usage Chopin Airport. In this port, around 30% of all passengers are transfer passengers (shifting on further flights). This is simply a good score close to the port of Amsterdam. Passengers from Scandinavia flying to the mediate East, Israel or India to Western Europe or the US will be able to control to CPK. LOT of these travellers already operates in Warsaw and could do so on a much larger scale if not for the limited capacity of the port of Chopin. Giving up this improvement chance would be irrational and simply harmful to Poland.
This does not preclude the admission to CPK of another large carriers. Looking at marketplace developments, we can presume that fresh carriers will appear on the CPK.
Sometimes there is an thought of a duo-port (Warsaw-Modlin), but this is simply a complete misunderstanding. No 1 will want to fly like this: fly to Modlin, train or taxi to the port of Chopin and there search further connection! It would be killing the thought of a hub. It won't work, and it won't work.
There has been an exhaustion of capacity at Chopin Airport, this airport is no longer expandable due to the fact that there is no place and there are environmental limits due to the sound that has already been reached. Any economical account of Okęcia's expansion did not match. The traffic at Chopin Airport is limited to 600 operations per day and this limit was already reached at the highest of the 2019 summertime season. To this should be added maximum operating limits on a belt and we see that in the arrival or departure waves already in the port of Chopin there is no capacity. We must besides bear in head that Chopin Airport is tiny – it is 1 of the smallest surface ports in Europe and its expansion possibilities are very limited. For comparison in Warsaw we have 880ha, Paris airport Charles de Gaulle takes 3000ha and the fresh airport in Istanbul as much as 7000ha. Many factors affect airport capacity. This, in addition to the capacity of the terminal itself and the permitted number of air operations, besides the number of take-offs and landings per hour, the hours of operation of the port (Chopin can not operate at night), the capacity of the non-Schengen zone, the efficiency of the baggage sorting area (too tiny for current needs and outdated), the number of parking and unloading stations, or even the ability to supply adequate fuel. All these investments in Okęcie, including the construction of a parallel belt, are simply no longer available. And even if Chopin's port was expanded and his working time was extended, it would open up a can of sound compensation for the residents of the surrounding districts. These are possibly dense billions of PLN. The argument about modern, quieter aircraft is not covered in real sound measurements made at various points of the city.
On the another hand, there is simply a limit of 66 operations per day in Modlin, and the airport itself is surrounded by Natura 2000 sites and nature reserves. The prayer can be extended, but at what cost and for what purpose? This is making a large gift for Ryanair. Ryanair's passenger charges in fresh years were very low, 5 PLN per passenger, and the port itself was inactive under the line. Now the charges are expected to increase, but they will not be high, due to the fact that for all passenger carried above what it presently has, Ryanair would pay PLN 6 while enjoying this volume discount, while each fresh carrier would pay respective times more at the beginning. This discourages another carriers from beginning calls to Prayer.
Some ask whether, in an era of progressive consolidation in the aviation market, LOT is able to sustain itself. Consolidation seems to be a bigger threat than it truly is. It has been spoken of in Europe for years, but this process is not going fast and is not as deep as in the US, where we have 5 large carriers. Europe is different, it is hard for many countries to quit their own carriers for economical and political reasons. There are 180 million people in our region who fly about erstwhile a year. In 20 years the inhabitants will be possibly a small less, but they will be richer and will fly more frequently – this in practice means about 400 million passengers to manage. LOT should focus on growth based on the increasing wave of request in Poland and Central and east Europe and on the construction of good passenger transfer connections from India, the mediate East, the Caucasus and Central Asia. If he can take advantage of a fresh aviation hub like CPK, he can take advantage of this chance to succeed. Of course, there will be Western, Arab, Turkish competition, but for them our region will never be a priority.
The efficient airport with advanced capacity and reception capacity of all aircraft (including the largest freighters and military aircraft) at any time of the day, which is besides the hub for further connections, is besides an crucial origin for all investors, especially high-tech, as they require high-speed passenger and freight transport. Without CPK airport there will be no chance of obtaining many possible investments for Poland. The request for global cooperation forces the existence of advanced supply chains. Participation in these chains requires investment in infrastructure, including transport infrastructure. There is simply a request for cargo infrastructure at airports, e.g. the infrastructure of cold supply chains to guarantee safe transport of products or handling of dangerous goods. specified developed cargo infrastructure Warsaw can only dream about. The share of our country in European cargo air transport is about 1 percent, and most cargo air shipments to customers in Poland land at German airports, where they are transported by trucks. We're losing quite a few money this way. We are besides sold out to tiny Hungary: in 2021, Budapest airport operated twice as much cargo volume as Chopin airport (sic!) It's time to start making money on air cargo.
Poles want to proceed the task of the Central Communication Port. This is the consequence of the United Surveys poll for RMF FM and the diary of Legal Newspaper. 51 percent of Poles support the implementation of the CPK project.
If the CPK audit is not carried out under a pre-established thesis, then it has to come out that you request to build a CPK airport.
Dr. Alexander Kisil
Cybernetic, psychologist, counselor, trainer, speaker, author.
