- I'm sorry. Karol Nawrocki's triumph in the presidential election was in a sense the end of Donald Tusk's political project, as it was defined in 2023. And his political authority in Europe was mostly based on his very strong democratic mandate in Poland," says Deutsche Welle Piotr Buras, European Union and German abroad policy expert.
"Poland's window in Brussels closes today"
As stressed by the head of the Warsaw office of the European abroad Affairs Council (ECFR) – the influential Brussels survey centre – the return of Poland – and Tusk himself – to the mainstream European policy was based on the reversal in 2023 – of the triumph over the Law and Justice organization – of the political trend in the country. But the conflicted coalition composed by the Prime Minister utilized the presence of president Andrzej Duda as a kind of excuse not to do certain things. “What ended disastrously,” the expert says.
In a period the Polish Presidency of the EU Council ends. June is her last month, the finale of semi-annual projects and the conduct of Brussels policy. The centre of gravity of the EU – the second one, next to the main 1 in Brussels – will decision from Warsaw to the next capital – Copenhagen. Does this mean that the Polish window in Brussels will close next month?
– It is closing present – Piotr Buras, who briefly says that the Presidency was an component strengthening Polish presence in the EU, but the key factors that translate into Poland's position in Brussels are its economical and military strength and the already mentioned individual position of Tusk himself as the author of the triumph over populism in 2023.
Disputes in the country will translate to the strength of Poland in the EU
Piotr Buras reserves that it is not even Nawrocki's choice itself that will have major consequences, which hazard weakening Poland in the EU – due to the fact that the president in the Polish strategy does not formulate abroad policy and especially in the EU field is not equipped with strong powers – but the fact that a number of topics concerning this abroad policy, including European policy, will “be the subject of a very fundamental dispute between the institutions of the state”.
“This means that president Nawrocki will be even stronger than president Duda did, and in a rhetorical sense he promoted a completely different kind of imagination of Polish politics in the planet or in Europe than the government does” he explains.
The bone of disagreement will be the transatlantic direction. “In particular, Nawrocki will effort to play an American card by criticizing the government for being under-pro-American,” says Piotr Buras, adding that “this is evidently absurd” due to the fact that the problem is the attitude of Donald Trump himself, who turns his back on Europe, and the Polish government and Tusk himself “do everything to keep something going.”
In the field of EU policy, the ECFR expert believes that "the most crucial measurement will be the attitude towards all European Union arms initiatives". Buras recalls in this context that already during the PiS and Nawrocki election run they criticised the government for allegedly undermining the transatlantic partnership.
The EU projects and initiatives to strengthen the European defence sector, announced and prepared for respective months, are intended to supply an injection of money to EU arms companies and to stimulate the European economy. Meanwhile, Poland – which is the aftermath of the Law and Justice governments – bought and inactive buys quite a few weapons primarily from the US and little in Europe.
The EU was ready for Nawrocki?
– Many people in Brussels hoped that, especially in the EU context, Rafał Trzaskowski would win due to the fact that this would strengthen the current government. But although these were the hopes, the expectations in turn were that he did not necessarily gotta succeed. And it affected the reactions we see. Both scenarios were considered likely, so in a sense it is not a surprise,” says DW Janis Emmanuelidis, Vice-President and manager of investigation for the Brussels survey Centre of the European Policy Centre (EPC).
The expert points out that the electoral run showed that the Tusk government was under force in the country, e.g. on migration or refugees from Ukraine. It besides points to the division in Polish society and the possible of elections in 2027, "although 2 years in politics is simply a very long time". However, it states that "both candidates have achieved very akin results and although the president will be new, it is the government – old".
“And the question is, what will work at EU level with this government, besides in the end of the Polish Presidency,” explains the deputy manager of EPC.
Expert: The strength of Poland in the EU is not only Tusk
He besides agrees, although with any reservations, with the opinion of Piotr Buras about weakening Poland's influence in the EU after the election of Nawrocki. It points out that Tusk's position would, of course, be strengthened with the win of Rafał Trzaskowski, and the correctness, which applies not only to Poland but to all associate States, especially the large ones, is that if the heads of government or governments themselves are weakened in the country, it has a negative effect at Brussels level.
– But Poland plays a strong function in the EU not only due to the fact that Donald Tusk is in charge, but due to what our planet looks like, especially after 2022 – the Brussels expert notes. And he adds:
– I believe Poland is and will proceed to be a strong actor in the EU and, if nothing changes, Donald Tusk will be Prime Minister of the country by 2027, And in 2 years, as I said, political reality can be completely different.
According to Emmanuelidis, the position of the Tusk government compared to the situation if the president were to be Trzaskowski will most likely be weaker, but compared to the past – it is inactive stronger than it was.
"And I presume that there will inactive be many political actors in the EU, whether in Brussels or in the capitals of the associate States, who want to keep strong relations with this government and its Prime Minister," he concludes.
The EU right is happy. How strong will Nawrocki have?
What about the political actors who present enjoyed Nawrock's victory, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and a organization of European Conservatives and Reformists, where Poles from the Law and Italians from Melona play the main roles?
Janis Emmanuelidis stresses that president Nawrocki will not have the same influence on Polish policy in the EU as the 2 mentioned above – it will be crucial that the Tusk government weakens on its own field, i.e. in Poland – and only this will have a shift to Brussels.
Piotr Buras points out that nationalist and pro-trumpian views – including a more critical attitude towards Ukraine – will be increasingly crucial in Polish interior politics, and the consensus on abroad affairs – which Duda and Tusk have respected – will be crushing.
This, combined with the government's inability to implement its policy, will affect its position in Brussels.
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