The Gulf oil blockade hit China the hardest, which had already lost its second origin of supply. This could be the next step in cutting off oil and gas sources to America's large competitor.
Donald Trump plays with fire, dragging the Iranian crisis to infinity. Peace is being announced all moment, signing agreements, ending the blockade of the Strait of Ormuz, but it's all just media noise. There is simply a real blockade of the world's most crucial logistics point, and a certain aspect of this game someway escapes observers in a crowd of statements, entries, price fluctuations, etc. ...
This is China, the most affected oil recipient in this crisis, whose problems had already begun earlier – since the kidnapping of Venezuelan President. After the surgical operation of peculiar Forces on 3 January 2025. Nicolas Maduro landed in fresh York City in handcuffs to stand trial before an American court under rampant charges of drug trafficking. This allowed Washington to take full control of the world's largest oil deposits and control all Venezuelan oil trade by American banks and decide who will be selling and what income goes on. And illegal exports are blocked by an American fleet in the Caribbean Sea. As a result, black Venezuelan gold no longer flows to China, but lands in the United States or India.
However, these were not crucial quantities – about 4 percent of imports. But now Donald Trump has dealt with China's largest origin of oil: the Persian Gulf. This war – non-war has been going on for over 100 days, erstwhile it goes on, erstwhile it dies, but 1 component is stable: the blockade of the Strait of Ormuz. And that's what cuts off China's not only sanctioned Iranian oil, but most supplies from the Gulf. And it was over 5 million barrels a day, which is almost half of the full imports of oil into the mediate East.
China imports 70% of the oil they need, so cutting off their supply is highly dangerous for them. And the war with Iran hit this weak strategical point of natural materials the hardest. Of the quantities which were missing in the global market, the most – 3 quarters – were missing from China. Their oil imports decreased by a 3rd – from 11.7 million in February to 7.8 million b/d in May. For us to have an thought of the scale of the problem – this is more than 5 times the oil consumption in Poland. The main supplier, Saudi Arabia, is now gathering its commitments, the amount of oil exported has barely changed thanks to the Red Sea pipeline. Iran did not reduce exports for any time either, but another suppliers, specified as Iraq, the Emirates, Oman or Kuwait, practically ceased their supplies.
Iran itself was of course an crucial supplier of oil to Beijing, but it was only 12% of Chinese imports. For Iran, China was a strategical recipient – 80% of all Iranian oil production, subject to US restrictions, was smuggled there, so there was no trace in authoritative statistics.
The blocking of the Strait struck China a striking blow, the most crucial Chinese sources of supply were effectively blocked. And it's not easy to replace this oil, everyone's hunting it now. Even Russian oil, which had previously been reduced by $20/b to neutralize US sanctions, now sells like fresh buns. Without any discount, and free of sanctions. Strangely enough, its exports to China besides fell, almost half. But the Chinese demanded large discounts, so now they could be bid by another recipients.
The Ormuz Strait Blockage besides deprives China of large amounts of LNG. Nearly a 3rd of the imported liquefied gas passes through the Strait, primarily from Qatar. However, natural gas plays a tiny function in the energy mix of the mediate States (9% share in energy sources). Oil is simply a key natural material to find Chinese development.
Donald Trump's actions to date are beginning to form a coherent whole. It is just the energy and the measurement directed against you. For a reason, the loudest strategy of the U.S. president is "Energy Domination". But let's get any more leads...
Andrzej Szczęsniak
Think Poland, No. 25-26 (21-28.06.2026)
