At the last straight, or 2020 election

I've been commenting on my fanpage or Twitter lately. On Monday morning, at the last simple campaign, I decided to prepare a tiny forecast of what should be happening shortly in the run and how things could happen. Many affirmative comments motivated me to make not the perfect one, but its entry with these fresh moments of the campaign.

So, here we go.

Exactly next week, we'll know for certain who:

• he went to the second circular – here the surprise will not be, and we can be almost certain that the President's seat will be fought by the current reigning Andrzej Duda and the Vladimir of the capital – Rafał Trzaskowski,

• They want their career to end – for respective politicians it will most likely be the last election. I'm certain there'll be heads in the headquarters,

• He will gotta make serious decisions in support of a candidate who will face Duda.

Therefore, the last 5 days of an intense run should theoretically not change much, but they can spoil a lot. Let's buckle up and go!

Before speculation – any of what brought the last run weekend.

• the intensive way of candidates,

• The number 67 that wanted to play porn but was 2 besides small,

• the shocking action of a abroad influencer on Tiktok, which led to spam comments on Andrzej Duda's profile. For the first time in run history, 1 of the candidates completely concealed the anticipation of commenting. I wonder if that's the end of it.

You've seen what's going on with Andrew Duda in the comments that I think started with this tickot.https://t.co/rpE8Bjq3EWpic.twitter.com/3QywJRcaZc

• a false American,

• force at the rally,

• 24 hours with candidate Holovnia during a live campaign,

• thousands of volunteers and millions of leaflets,

• The first female in the priesthood, or Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz on the pulpit on Jasna Góra,

• fresh spots of Dude and Trzaskowski.

This is where I'm staying.

Trzaskowski's place is simple but emotional. It allows you to get to know the candidate and his life better. It's a mini-résumé and life in a pill.

This is Spot:

However, the effort of the Duda Staff with the experimentation is not successful.

Here comes “Do not lie to Rafał” in the performance of Andrzej Duda's staff. Unlike Trzaskovsky, Duda prefers a lying and rude negative campaign. The butts burn in the president's staff, which is why they make a mistake for a mistake.

You can see the spot:

This mention to Trzaskowski's place from the 2018 local government campaign. Then the candidate's staff released a akin clip hitting PiS candidate Patrick Jako.

You can see it here:

We do not divide people, we do not endanger anyone, we do not want to intimidate – we give the level to Warsaw and Warsaw. due to the fact that Warsaw is for everyone.#Trzaskowski2018#Warsaw to Allpic.twitter.com/uJcIvIfF62

Calka and zero ingenuity

The main problem with Duda's place is simply secondary and archaic, and even a alternatively entertaining mention to the run 2 years ago. It is simply a pity that it is only readable for those very closely following the Polish political scene. So it will not go to most Poles and Poles.

The actions of Duda's staff are just pathetic. Things made in a hurry, without thinking.

This place is proof that the ideas at Duda's are completely over.

What should candidates do on the last consecutive line?

• meetings, meetings and meetings again – the more places visited, the shaking hands (although COVID) the better;
• large own activity as well as supporters – where the run cannot get there should be a powerful mobilisation of volunteers – fresh banners, flyers and posters, but besides a very intense run on social media,
• 200% online mobilization, shooting evidence coverage,
• the biggest advertising budgets of social media, highly specified targets,
• Focusing on yourself, not on counter candidates – exposing the program, personality, affirmative campaign.

What should candidates fight for? Who should I focus on, and what should I be careful of? [recommendations collected subjectively for selected candidates]

TRASASKOWSKI RAPHAL:

• a fight for a group that believed in Kidawa but lost hope and gave up participation in the elections, the trust of the KO;
• Undecided – especially young 18-35 to scope online,
• disgruntled those who want to vote for poorness or disappointed in this candidate and seeking an alternative.

What group lacked convictions?

• persons from tiny municipalities and villages. The advanced level of assurance in TVP communications weakens its position in smaller municipalities and villages – here it is essential to change the image in their eyes and effort to dialogue.
• people who vote for Duda only for 500+.

HOŁOVIAN SYMON

• young people going to elections for the first time 18-25 years not trusting in old politics,
• Catholic electorate of Dudy,
• Entrepreneurs who wanted to vote for Tanajno but quit the election.

ROBERT BEDRON

• the erstwhile rainbow electorate of Spring, who moved to Holovnia and Trzaskowski due to the change in Robert's narrative,
• Young liberals who can vote for the first time (access to the Internet),

Here are any crucial changes that should occur:

• changing the communicative to the last consecutive – from aggressive and geared against opposing candidates to affirmative with a larger note of "me, we will count" – Torwaru's communicative to pay attention to his program and real change.
• Rejecting that he would not support Trzaskowski in the 2nd circular again takes back his credibility, which he had already lost promising to give the mandate of the Euro MP.

ANDREW DUDA

• should fight for people aged 45-65+ from tiny municipalities who have not yet decided whether to go to elections,
• more Catholic electorate of Polish families, which takes distant his Holovnia,
• Young conservatives that Bosak takes from him.

Actions which are unnecessary and should be silenced:

• Napping on Trzaskowski – presently the run of Duda is based only on this
• lack of show vulnerability and success – vacation voucher is not all,
• Trzaskowski's electorate will not vote for Duda – the migration routes are Holovnia and Kosiniak-Kamysz – these candidates are helped by Duda's pursuit hence his strong decline in the polls.

Which can powerfully affect the percent points on the last straight:

• the nervousness of the candidates and the small focus on themselves and another candidates may take interest points,

• Support for candidates by influencers (these micro and macro ones) and celebrities – presently the leader in this issue is Hołownia and Trzaskowski. Indeed, there is simply a deficiency of infliers who were visible in the Biedronia run to Europarlament. An interesting phenomenon is besides the influencer militants against Duda, but at the same time not straight indicating this only candidate. We are dealing with this procedure, among another things, in front of Gontich.

Impressive in the full action is the transfer of video money to the association Love doesn't regulation out.

Similar anti-support for Duda represents:

• Maffeshion – strong criticism of the place #RafalNo Lie on his Instastories,
• Ania Maluje – strong criticism of the instasteries of Andrzej Duda's actions,
• Here Okuniewska – showing the hypocrisy of the Duda and the regulation of the Law and Justice on his institutions.

There are more anti-supportive ones, and even more incentives to go to elections – just like that. I hope that the next fewer days will give a fewer more interesting influencers.

Final opinion:

erstwhile it comes to results, they shouldn't change. Here we have clear leaders – Duda and Trzaskowski. However, the another candidates will anticipate the highest possible results:

• Trzaskowski and Duda can finish I circular with closely akin oscillating results at the limit of 42% for Duda, 38% for Trzaskowksi. specified a consequence will be the worst script for the ruling party. We may be faced with a akin situation as in the 2015 election, erstwhile the poorly known and inconspicuous candidate Duda defeats the then reigning Komorowski,
• Hołównia o consequence 2-digit – I think the possible candidate for president of Warsaw after the win of Trzaskowski,
• Poorer should fight by 3% to get a better consequence than Cucumber – otherwise his trust will fall, and in 4 years he will not simply rebuild the wasted potential,
• The fight will appear between Bosak and Kosiniak – they will fight for 2 best score in the ranking of non-secondary candidates, Bosak will definitely become a candidate for president of Warsaw after the win of Trzaskowski,
• a amazing consequence I can accomplish Waldemar Witkowski, who amazed during the debate,
• Jap can number on fans who will vote “for eggs” for his phenomenal action #Menelove – this may be the second consequence among “those who nobody knows” by Wikowski.

Thank you very much for your attention. This morning, any political thoughts for the last consecutive campaign. I can afford that, due to the fact that it's the first run in 5 years that I'm not in.

There will be quite a few political comments and observations this week, especially on my Twitter.