The material was created in cooperation with POLON.pl and Podcast Travel without Passport.
Mateusz Grzeszczuk, Journey Without Passport: I have only late talked to experts about the situation in Burma, where the military junta inactive governs, which has overthrown civilian authorities. At the turn of last year and this year, guerrillas attacked and it seemed that the situation of generals was not the best. What is the situation in Burma today? The rebel army has made crucial progress, including territorial progress.
Patryk Kugiel, Polish Institute of global Affairs (PISM): It can be said that the army of Myanmar's military government is on an expanding offensive, and cultural groups and democratic opposition are on a rising wave. Territorial advancement continues. We are talking about a situation that gained fresh momentum last October, erstwhile cultural groups and democratic forces announced the alleged Alliance of Troy – 3 armed groups that started Operation 10-27 (which started on 27 October 2023).
The offensive amazed the armed forces, and the rebels took control of respective 100 military bases, more northward and to the Myanmar border. More than 20 battalions and respective twelve cities were besides taken over. As a consequence of Chinese pressure, in January this year any rebel groups signed a ceasefire, and in June groups – especially Tang National Liberation Army – broke the agreement from the beginning of the year and began the second phase of their operation.
The situation in Myanmar is rather complicated due to the fact that we are dealing with respective cultural groups, with their own armed forces and armies. The situation in different parts of the country was different. However, the last 3 weeks have been another series of successful rebel groups. Recently, these forces have taken over over 80 more military bases, 10 battalion commanders and respective cities.
Currently, the Burmese military government has mostly lost control of state borders, including the most crucial border with China. Today, fighting is taking place in the very crucial city of Lasho, which is the administrative center of northern Shan State. This is where the northern command of the Burmese army is located. This shows how hard the current situation of the Burmese army is.
In the west of the country, Arakan Army, Rakhine, is stationed in the state of Rakhine, which continues to lead the offensive, has recorded a number of victories over fresh days. In the state of blackmail, respective cultural groups, independently of each other, lead the offensive and get further arms portions and military bases. The war is moving deeper and deeper into the heart of the country, moving from border states with India and China and entering even the Mandalay region. The city of Mandalay – the second largest city of Myanmar – seems to be another mark of rebel groups.
The situation of the military government is not yet hopeless, rebel groups have not yet won. Nevertheless, the ground is being removed under the regime's feet, we are besides observing interior tensions in the army, and the dictator and chief general of the Burmese army is subject to expanding interior criticism. The brutal civilian war continues at its best, there are over 3 million interior refugees in Myanmar, over 100,000 people fled to the countries neighbouring Myanmar – unfortunately, erstwhile the rebels get any land, the army responds with air raids or artillery fire, thereby levelling the areas taken over.
What communicative does the military junta usage today? I realize they inactive cling to power.
Junta doesn't have much to lose, so he doesn't talk about concessions. General Min Aung Hlaing one more time promises elections to take place six months after the military coup in February 2021, nevertheless they inactive did not happen. The current dictator announces that it will happen next year, and the government is to hold political talks with any opposition forces.
The general repeats an old communicative about the army being the guarantor of Myanmar's unity and survival, but it can be seen that it no longer convinces anyone. Remember, the war is between 3 forces. On the 1 hand, we have the Burmese regime. On the another hand, all cultural groups, making up 35-40 percent of Burmese society, which are very diverse and any of them fight the army, but not all (some have made a truce and have political dialog with the junta).
On the 3rd hand, we have the People's Defence Forces, which consist of cultural Burmese supporting democracy and the overthrown Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the main opposition party. They request the restoration of legally elected authorities of 2022, the restoration of Aung San Suu Kyi, the release of political prisoners (which may be up to 20,000) and the restoration of democracy, as well as the beginning of peace dialogue.
However, the situation has gone rather far. It is utilized to the top degree by cultural groups, which in many places gain self-reliant power, and Myanmar undergoes a process of fragmentation and fragmentation, which is not known whether even if the junta falls, whether it succeeds in Burma saying colloquially "stick" into 1 country, or whether there will be a emergence of a twelve smaller states to areas where there are circumstantial cultural groups. spiritual and cultural mosaics of Myanmar are very complicated.
For now, the army is on the defensive, but is not ready for a peaceful transfer of power. He fights for his endurance and knows he can't number on mercy, so he will usage all force and weapon they gotta defend his state of possession. As the war approaches central, ethnically Burmese territory, the advancement of the rebels will decline. The Army will so have more control over what is happening and will be able to defend itself for a long time.
I take it the Chinese tend to distance themselves from these events?
The situation in Myanmar is definitely not in the hands of the Chinese Beijing had immense plans for this country, they wanted to build gas pipelines, oil pipelines, they were to make an economical corridor and gain a fast and easy way to the Indian Ocean and the Bengal Gulf. The outbreak of the conflict in 2021 threatened to launch Chinese investments.
Beijing is so trying to put force on the rebel groups to scope political agreement and end the armed action. The regions bordering China have been taken over by individual cultural groups and trade with Burma has been fundamentally halted.
China has immense influence on insignificant groups. In January this year, the mediate State forced any of them to enter into peace with the Burmese regime, by closing access to goods and weapons, as well as money.
The best example of China's function is that during the 3rd organization plenary in Beijing in a motion of goodwill, 1 of the main opposition groups – the Army of the National Democratic Alliance of Burma – announced a four-day ceasefire in a motion of relationship towards China. The fight will surely resume after the end of the plenary on 18 July, but it clearly shows that the PRC inactive has a function to play.
Beijing is trying to reconcile water with fire. They would surely not want to weaken the junta and the current system, due to the fact that they do not care that there is simply a multi-party democracy in Myanmar that can mean chaos and fresh tensions. They would not want to lose an ally – now the Burmese junta mostly exists and operates thanks to Russian and Chinese support.
For Beijing it is an chance to preserve its influence. Aung San Suu Kyi's return means strengthening American or European influences. China is committed to maintaining the position quo: the end of the armed struggles and the improvement of a political agreement that ensures the autonomy of cultural groups, but without overthrowing the current regime.
China is trying to put force on rebel forces in this direction, but for now we are watching the stalemate. The rebels are presently in the offensive and hope to win everything: take over, defeat the Burmese army. no of the parties are presently curious in peace, so we can observe the diplomatic procedures on the part of China to stabilise the situation and conclude a truce, but it will most likely be ineffective for a long time.
The food crisis and the hard situation of citizens are deepening. Is the planet Responding?
This is not an easy time in the arena of global relations. We see so many conflicts and wars that we forget any of them. The attention of the planet is not mostly directed at Burma.
There are global humanitarian organisations, specified as UNHCR and UN agendas, operating in the region and helping interior refugees. The situation in Burma is besides unstable and dangerous for global organisations. Assistance for refugees reaches a limited extent, not all – in any places there are inactive armed struggles, elsewhere there is no known who is in power. Cooperation with the military junta is besides on the way to help.
There are calls for the authorities to recognise the autonomous rebel groups and to supply assistance straight to these places, liberated by the organizations. They are frequently cut off from the world, located advanced in the mountains, in the inaccessible jungle. In turn, the junta wants to take over the aid and regulate it, utilizing it as an component of force on cultural groups.
The West is busy with another conflicts in Europe or in the mediate East, not seen on the horizon of a political solution. The Chinese have the top influence in the region and it will depend on their political commitment to resolve the situation.
You can perceive to the full recording at the following link:
Developed by: Magdalena Melke
Written by Mateusz Grzeszczuk
