When Donald Trump first entered office in 2017, many questioned whether the United States would proceed to advance democracy. Throughout his first term, this was indeed deprioritized – but it was not eliminated, as mainstream conservatives kept the president in check. In the first months of his second term, however, isolationism appears to be the main force shaping an increasingly transactional US abroad policy.
This shift is simply a global emergency, as support for democracy remains not only an essential moral imperative but besides a strategical precedence for those who search a more unchangeable and prosperous world. To realize why, let us look at the aggression carried out in fresh years by authoritarian Azerbaijan against democratic Armenia in the South Caucasus.
That aggression had been going on intermittently for respective years. Its climax came in September 2023 with an Azerbaijani attack on the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the cultural cleansing of its 140,000 cultural Armenians. Armenia consequently became 1 of the top 5 refugee-hosting countries in the planet by proportion of population, with nearly 9 per cent of its residents being refugees (mainly from Nagorno-Karabakh). Moreover, as a consequence of the collapse of the enclave’s autonomous government, Freedom House, a pro-democracy NGO whose Armenia programming I headed at the time, downgraded Nagorno-Karabakh’s position from “Partly Free” to “Not Free” – reflecting its incorporation into full authoritarian Azerbaijan.
The global community, including the Biden administration, failed to meaningfully act, and the tragedy remains a grim reminder of what happens erstwhile democratic improvement and accountability mechanisms are neglected in geopolitically delicate areas.
Yet this result was predictable for those of us who had been studying developments in Azerbaijan more closely. Azerbaijan’s run against Nagorno-Karabakh paralleled intensifying home repression, including an always harsher crackdown on journalists and civilian society. This occurred against the broader backdrop of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which reportedly adopted any of the same military strategies utilized by Azerbaijan in an earlier war against the Armenians in 2020. The absence of meaningful consequences for Azerbaijan’s usage of force then may have indirectly emboldened others, contributing to a broader erosion of global norms.
Moreover, permissiveness toward Azerbaijan’s authoritarianism impacted neighbouring countries. Georgia, erstwhile seen as a democratic success story, has experienced increasing democratic backsliding. The Georgian Dream party’s distancing from democratic norms has repeatedly received the support of Ilham Aliyev. This reflects a calamitous dynamic: erstwhile autocrats in 1 country face no consequences, their full region can suffer.
The 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh erupted during president Trump’s first term. Despite the administration’s effort to broker a ceasefire, the agreement reached broke down quickly. The failure of the alleged “Minsk Group” (the US, France and Russia) to prevent continued conflict underscored the difficulty of navigating protracted disputes without meaningful global engagement. While the group represented a form of global involvement, it lacked cohesion, political will and enforcement capacity. As a result, the Minsk Group format yet proved ineffective and has since mostly collapsed.
The evidence from Russia, Azerbaijan and another authoritarian states suggests that peace is far little likely where democracy recedes. And there is simply a reason for this: democratic institutions aid prevent conflict by fostering transparency, accountability and public participation. Populations in most places seldom want to go to war. While democratic improvement must come from within, it frequently requires strong and sustained support from like-minded actors.
The same is actual of efforts to keep or reconstruct peace, especially in regions dominated by authoritarian regimes. global engagement is critical as the populations of these states are mostly not a factor, or are manipulated by the authoritarian control of local media.
Here, too, the South Caucasus case is instructive. Following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia and Azerbaijan entered intermittent negotiations aimed at reaching a peace agreement. Those talks have repeatedly faltered, but in fresh weeks both sides announced that they have reached an agreed text of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This presents a historical chance to end decades of conflict and illustration a fresh course for the region. Yet Azerbaijan has imposed fresh preconditions and is stoking further instability.
The global community must not stand by. The United States and the European Union should exert diplomatic force on Baku to finalize and sign the treaty without further delay. Sustained peace will only be possible if the process is rooted in global norms, respect and accountability. Anything little risks enabling further authoritarian aggression and undermining the fragile democratic gains in Armenia and the region. The peace deal may subsequently end up being remembered as 1 more manipulation and the prelude to yet more aggression.
To many policymakers in Washington and Brussels, the South Caucasus may not appear as a vital strategical interest, and this perception contributes to recurring inaction. But the region presents a critical test case for peacebuilding through democratic support, and success here could set an example for another regions struggling with authoritarianism and conflict.
For a while, there was any reason for hope. In January 2025, under the Biden administration, Armenia and the US signed a strategical Partnership Charter. Part of this paper stated that the US should reaffirm its commitment to supporting democratic resilience – not only in Armenia but in the broader region. Supporting democratic development, delivering humanitarian aid, and strengthening civilian society offer the region a chance at something long denied: lasting peace, dignity and human rights.
This is why it is specified a tragedy that the United States now seems headed in the other direction. As but 1 example of this abdication, USAID has been eviscerated, which has led to Freedom home and another American democracy-building operations being shuttered.
And this is not only an American failure. The EU advanced typical Kaja Kallas has emphasized that sustainable peace requires justice and accountability. However, European actors must go beyond statements of concern and genuinely invest in the institutions that uphold democracy.
The US and EU should not treat democracy as a secondary issue. They must champion it as the surest way to peace. Nagorno-Karabakh’s fall is not just a humanitarian tragedy but a warning. Without democratic values at the centre of global engagement, peace will stay elusive.
Andranik Shirinyan is simply a law and global relations specialist from Armenia. He served as the Armenia Country typical at Freedom home from 2021 to 2025.
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