Two crucial events have permanently changed and in fact destroyed the propaganda image of the Russian-Ukrainian War, which was definitely built over the past year with “free media” in particular.
The first, the most important, is the economical disaster of Polish agriculture as a consequence of the inflow of Ukrainian agricultural crops. The second is an equally massive leak of secret U.S. papers concerning this war. The first of them illustrated (painfully) the apparent thesis that pro-war east policy is not only completely unprofitable but even economically disastrous for us. Losses in tens or even hundreds of billions of PLN are irretrievable and pointless due to the fact that they have no nonsubjective influence on the result of this war. Allowing the unlimited sale of agricultural produce to respective "international companies" which took over an crucial part or even most of the arable land in Ukraine is of no military significance.
Ukrainian troops are full supplied by 3rd countries (including Poland) and to my cognition we do this for free. The economical demolition of Polish agriculture (structural inefficiencies) which has not been known in the past is already a fact, due to the fact that the late embargo on imports of cereals will change little, due to the fact that in their place, for example, Ukrainian flour will come much cheaper than that which will arise from Polish grain. For now, the only solution is to cover farmers from public funds the resulting losses, that is our taxes. On the shoulders of the depleted society as a consequence of the current "Eastern Policy", which has already lost at least one-fifth of its assets, the failure of farmers as a consequence of the senseless beginning of EU markets to Ukrainian agricultural crops will be borne.
There's no money in the state budget. I realize that the full political class, which is liable for this disaster, will pass an extraordinary taxation or taxation which will finance farmers' losses due to the “winner war” of the Kiev governments with “Russian aggression”. “World leadership” announces that this war will proceed for a long time, so this taxation will not be charged for many years. I look forward to projects of this taxation (taxes), which should be fiscally effective, giving at least PLN 10 billion for a year, as they will at least bear the failure of farmers as a consequence of duty-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine. Who would pay this tax? surely not "international investors" who have been enjoying many generous taxation privileges for years (e.g. low excise duties on their products). If individual had the courage to destruct these pathologies, additional budget revenues would amount to at least PLN 10 billion. We are waiting for a imagination of these taxes to appear in opposition organization election programs. By the way: left-wing politicians organized a collection to buy a combat drone for Ukrainians, possibly now they will propose a collection to cover farmers' losses, for example PLN 100 per individual per month.
Budgetary gross this year will be lower than planned and may even fall compared to last year. According to authoritative information, after the first 4th of 2023, only 20% of the gross was collected, which means we are under a thick line. And it can be even worse, due to the fact that the only successful economical operation of the last year is widespread impoverishment, especially for consumers and tiny and medium-sized enterprises: request is falling, and this besides means a fall in budgetary revenue. And this "success" goes hand in hand with a decrease in taxation revenues. We will be poor, frightened by the threat of “Russian aggression” and possibly burdened with excessive taxes, all in the name of defending current regulation in Kiev. We can only “comfort” that the demolition of Ukraine is much greater, but all these victims are essential to “defeat Putin”. So far, all the forecasts of Russia's “disruption” and the assassination of its president and the fresh post-bolshevik revolution have failed and will most likely fail.
The end of this conflict can be helped by an accident: it can, for the most natural reasons, go to eternity by 1 of the 2 old men who wage the last war of their political life. besides individual (as it is done in “great” politics) can usage the usage of the main actors of this war for the pursuit of their global interests and everyone sees the eventual unification of China, which wants to occupy the rebellious state that is present the American protector. We better not be on the side of losers in a literal sense (we are already losing economically). The next election could be a disaster for an crucial part of our political class. Just as Sanacja lost the 1939 war and never returned to power again. possibly that's good?
Witold Modzelewski
Think Poland, No. 21-22 (21-28.05.2023)
