Modi in Zagreb: Croatian dreams of the Mediterranean hub

On 18 June, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Croatia, where he signed bilateral cooperation agreements on agriculture, culture, discipline and technology and education. Zagreb supported the finalisation of the negotiations for a free trade agreement between India and the EU resumed in 2022 and announced the improvement of defence cooperation. The subject of the talks was besides the possible participation of Croatia in the planned transportation corridor of India–Close East–Europe (IMEC), which fresh Delhi presents as an alternate to the Chinese Belt and way Initiative. The sea-land way would lead from the western coast of India to the Arabian Peninsula and then through the Israeli port in Haifa to Mediterranean European states (in the first version of the task only to the Greek port in Piraeus) and further mainly to France, Germany and Italy. He besides discussed cooperation under IMEC Modi 2 days earlier in Cyprus.

The Indian Prime Minister's journey to Croatia demonstrates Zagreb's aspirations to increase its function as a "Mediterranean gateway" to Central Europe. However, this will not be easy given existing infrastructure constraints, regional competition and political instability in the mediate East.

Comment

• The visit of the leader of the most populous state in the planet is simply a visual success of Zagreb. Modi visits the EU comparatively rarely, especially Central Europe (except last year's stays in Poland and Ukraine). This is besides the first time that the head of the Indian government has arrived in Croatia in more than 30 years of diplomatic relations between both countries. The bilateral agreements concluded are general and are of a framework nature, but thanks to them, Zagreb is in the vanguard of the EU's approximation with fresh Delhi. EU cooperation with India has intensified in fresh months, which besides has tensions with China. To date, the Adriatic and Western Balkans coasts have been in Beijing's economical interest orbit.
• Authorities are seeking to make the port of Rijeka a logistics hub. It competes in this area with Slovenian Koper and Italian Trieste. Croatia is so willing to cooperate with another Mediterranean countries, including Greece (Pireus) and France (Marselia). This is supported by the plan to launch the fresh Rijeka Gateway container terminal in September, which will be the most modern facility of this kind on the Adriatic. The task is implemented by the Danish shipowner Maersk APM Terminals and Croatian company Enna Logic. It is possible that Modi's visit is linked to fresh large – estimated at $5 billion – Maersk investments in port and logistics infrastructure in India. Indeed, the operators want to usage the port terminals in which they participate, due to cost optimization. fresh Delhi explores opportunities for cooperation with another actors in the Mediterranean and presents IMEC as an chance to make underdeveloped economical cooperation with the countries of the Tri-Mediterranean Initiative (3SI). Croatia, which will hold its summit next year, stresses its key position between Central Europe and the Adriatic, suggesting possible synergies between 3SI and IMEC.
• Obstacles on the way to the accomplishment of ambition Zagreb may be characterised by infrastructure constraints and regional competition. The full usage of the transhipment capacity to be provided by the Rijeka Gateway terminal will impede the state of transport infrastructure, especially railway infrastructure. The main investment, which will importantly improve freight transport and increase port capacity, is the extension and modernisation of the railway line moving from Rijeka through Zagreb to the border with Hungary, but the completion of this task will be earliest in 2032. Strong opponents in the context of the competition for the operation of the markets of the Tri-Mediterranean States and connections to the IMEC Corridor are, as has already been mentioned, Italy and Slovenia, with larger and better-connected ports in Trieste and Koper.
• The prospects for the IMEC corridor appear uncertain. The concept was announced in September 2023 during the G20 summit in fresh Delhi. Its premise was to show the Global South countries that the West is able to offer an alternate to the Belt and way Initiative. Despite the announcement of the signatories (except for the US, EU and India, the cooperation agreement on the establishment of the corridor was signed by Saudi Arabia, the United arabian Emirates, France, Germany and Italy) neither the "road map" of the task has been developed nor the announcement ofthe appropriations for its implementation. The current tense situation in the mediate East region makes IMEC a stalemate, although during the February gathering in the capital of India, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Modi stressed their determination to make this initiative. The question of the cost-effectiveness of transporting goods along this way is inactive to be answered against the conventional roadand maritime – for example due to the multiplicity of transhipments and the deficiency of direct rail connections between the mediate East countries.