We have a fresh war. It began more than 24 hours ago unannounced and unprovoked, so contrary to global law, the attack of Israeli and U.S. aircraft, and rockets launched from U.S. Navy ships. According to U.S. president Donald Trump and the war criminal – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (formerly Milejkowski – is the Warsaw surname of this family!) – this is to be a quick, short winning war. Operation "Epic Fury" (Epicka Furia) is to overthrow the Iranian regime, as Mr Trump claims.
The first nearly 30 hours of Operation Epic Fury have passed and it is time for a summary, short results. Let's see what you can see erstwhile the first conflict dust came down carefully separating propaganda and lies from facts. The first casualty of war is truth!
Elimination of Iran's leadership (Decapitation Strategy)
The main nonsubjective of the first wave of attacks was the physical elimination of the highest state, spiritual and military authorities of the muslim Republic of Iran. It is besides a war crime under global law. Iran has legally elected authorities, like the US or Israel. The most crucial "success" is the death of Ali Chamenea, a spiritual and political leader of Iran. any 40 elder commanders, government officials, were besides killed. Is this a giant blow to the central tense strategy of the regime?
The answer is negative. Chamenei Avenue appointed a successor, and the takeover of power went smoothly. alternatively of average Ali Chamenei, the power was taken by radicals from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. There are no signs of unrest, riots or rebellion. Hundreds of thousands of people publically mourning the death of a leader attest to the anger and desire for retaliation from the Iranians. A imagination that allegedly lights and an enlightened part of society obli ajatollah government proved to be a dream. Ali Chamenei on the eve of the attack agreed to US demands and virtually liquidated Iran's atomic program, which was expected to be the main demand. Nevertheless, the US attacked showing that the atomic program was just a pretext for war! Killing Ali Chamenei is simply a shot in the foot. With Ali Chamenei the usa could make peace or truce, with his successors no longer. The margin of agreement has fallen to zero.
Don't we know the past, or can there be an interior colaps of the regime? But it's an highly improbable scenario. The execution of Ali Chamenei and another leaders did not weaken the regime, but strengthened it. I think this was Ali Chamenei's intention, who, despite warnings, remained at his office dying with his family. He was a man for whom sacrifice for his homeland and faith, or martyrdom, was not an empty slogan. His successors will see that his sacrifice is not in vain.
Destruction of Iran's anti-aircraft defence and radar stations
The second key pillar of the operation was the complete breakdown and demolition of Iran's anti-access systems (A2/AD) and the integrated air defence strategy (IADS), which was to guarantee the coalition's full dominance in airspace and operational freedom in the following days of the campaign.
Official version: The demolition of ground-based radar systems has been greatly successful in creating "blind corridors" in Iran's airspace, allowing the safe introduction of further waves of multitasking aircraft. The effectiveness of this operation proves the gigantic technological advantage of the West in the field of radio-electronic combat (EW) and precise stand-off fire.
Unofficial version: The Iranians dispersed and relocated their anti-aircraft defense, e.g. radar stations, anti-aircraft batteries and impacts destroyed empty buildings and bunkers. Radars are silent due to the fact that they're off, not destroyed. Losses are, they are hard to measure for apparent reasons but did not violate the ability of the Iranian anti-aircraft defence to fight, which is stronger than ever.
Estimates and analysis of the means utilized for the coalition's air raid
The scale of the first twenty-four hours of conflict, measured by the number of nearly 900 documented strikes in critical targets, implies an unprecedented consumption of advanced, highly costly combat measures since Operation "Iraqi Freedom" in 2003. Estimated rocket consumption during the first day:
BGM-109 Tomahawk (TLAM) - 350 - 500 pieces,
AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti-radiation Missiles) / AARGM - 200 - 350 pieces,
AGM-158B JASSM-ER - 250 - 400 pieces,
The full consumption of highly valuable rockets only in the first day is estimated to be over 1000 pieces, not counting precision glider ammunition and smart bombs, which clearly confirms the nature of this operation as the heaviest bombing in the modern past of the mediate East.
This means that only within 24 hours of us Navy utilized from 2/3 to 3⁄4 rocket possessions, each at a price of $1 million up. Loading empty launchers is not possible at sea. The nearest base is Diego Garcia. Cruise to base and return pulse 1, 2 days per charge to about 10 days! This means that president Trump's threat that he's only now going to strike with all his power is just a bluff. His ships have empty launchers. Of course there are inactive bombs, planes can fly, but the deficiency of rockets perfectly limits the U.S.'s combat capabilities. A ten-day absence from the Navy means that all the rage of the Iranians would focus on the Persian Gulf countries, the allies of the US and Israel.
Retaliation of Iran, Scale and number of rockets and drones launched
A precise statistic of Iran's usage of effectors in the first 24 hours is not yet full available, but experts agree that strength is well above the 12 day war figures of June 2025. The number of ballistic missiles launched in February 2026 oscillates around 400-500 units, and drones exceed 1500 machines fired in massed salvos (swarms) in just a day.
China, ace up the sleeve
Iran carefully prepared for the war, He didn't waste those 8 months. He gained valuable allies. The most crucial of them is the People's Republic of China. What did he gain, buy in China?
1. CM-302 rockets, deadly anti-rotting weapons, hypersonic rockets, velocity ranging from Mach 1.5 to Mach 3, flight just above the surface of the waves (sea-skimming), highly hard to detect, operational scope 290 – 300 kilometres and 250 kg warhead with a powerful destructive force. They're called aircraft carriers' killers. At the end of the flight, they shall activate an active radio-location self-propelled head (GSH) capable of rapid, evasive manoeuvres.
2. Chinese networks of modern radar stations (SLC-7 and YLC-8B) Mobile radar with three-dimensional active phased electronic scanning (AESA), working in an highly delicate "L" band. Extended long-term informing radar with phased antenna operating in the metro and decimetre bands (UHF/VHF). Specially developed by the Chinese agency CETC to find 5th generation Stealth aircraft technology. With these radars, Stealth aircraft are no longer invisible. Iran has radars that detect them.
3. Access to Baidu's Chinese colocation system, Iran's rockets no longer usage American GPS and can no longer be disrupted and entrenched by manipulation of GPS.
4. Computer science. China supported Tehran in creating completely isolated and coded server structures (replacing delicate Western protocols) to full safe ballistic rocket positions against malicious penetration software from American CIA agencies and Israeli Mossad.
5. Other, electronics and optoelectronics including modern gyroscopes to improve rocket accuracy
6. So what don't we know...?
Iran's arms at CM-302 have already had a deterrent effect on USS aircraft carriers Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford, forcing their operations at a greater distance and complicating shield missions for their own aircraft.
Russia, second ace up the sleeve
Russia is the second ace up the sleeve. Iran has been supporting Russia in war in Ukraine for years. An example of a good Shahed. Now president Putin is returning the favor. What?
Anti-aircraft rockets 9K336 Drill. Theoretical scope from 500 m to 6,000–6.500 m. Effective from 10 m to 3,500–4,500 m. Theoretically, hand-held rockets weigh 17.25 kg, but it is best to mount them e.g. with pry in a truck or in a van. According to intelligence sources, the first tranches of equipment were rushed from Russia and deployed just a fewer days before the US-Israeli invasion on 28 February. This strategy created a direct and highly lethal threat to combat helicopters, low-flying impact swarms, but most importantly, it is able to capture U.S. subsonic maneuvering missiles BGM-109 Tomahawk moving the flight profile at an highly low altitude, which forced US planners to revise the attack vectors.
This contract included an emergency transfer of 500 portable launch modules (MANPADS) and a package of 2,500 9M336 9K336 Drill rockets. According to intelligence sources, the first tranches of equipment were rushed from Russia and deployed just a fewer days before the US-Israeli invasion on 28 February. The Wierba strategy operates an advanced three-channel multispectral (infrared and ultraviolet) guidance head, exhibiting exceptional opposition to western automated flare launchers and apparent targets.
The ground forces (mainly IRGC) have in fresh weeks integrated packages of armored MRAP "Spartak" class vehicles delivered from Russia and have deployed highly specialized and customs Orsis T-5000M sniper kits at their disposal.
The most crucial cognition known – how. Russia passed on experience from years of war in Ukraine with Western systems. Data about this, specified as Western systems (such as HIMARS, Excalibur or maneuvering missiles) behave in a highly disrupted environment (GPS spoofing). Drone operations, usage of dorn swarms to optimize operations, disrupt and fight electronically.
Don't underestimate the Russians. Whoever does this makes a large mistake. The war in Ukraine showed that western highly specialized and costly weapons are losing to inexpensive and simple Russian products. That's a valuable lesson for Iran.
Ormuz Strait
Last ace thrown on the table. This morning, the Iranian Revolutionary defender radio announces the closure of the Ormuz Strait. The closure of Ormuz represents a ~80 % drop in oil exports and LNG by 100 %. They did it Sunday morning. Exchange's closed. But on Monday, the stock exchanges will open and blood will flow over the dance floor. Oil transactions have died in open markets. Nobody sells due to the fact that they don't know the price! Presumably from a price below $70 per barrel, the price will jump to 120 – $200. West, the U.S. got hit on the tenderest point. It was better not to kill Ali Chamenei, he wouldn't close the Ormuz Strait. What's next? Will the Navy unlock the Ormuz Strait? Answer: NO. Not a chance.
First of all, ships don't have rockets. Or they don't have enough. Even if they return with full launchers, the effort to de-soil the strait would be highly dangerous – Chinese radars and CM-302 rockets. And seamines, tiny submarines, and swarms of motorboats loaded with explosives. You can't unlock the Strait alone with a Navy and aviation. We request a land attack. But beyond the strait there are the mountains of Zagros, powerful, dangerous, unconquered. Turned by the Iranians into fortresses full of tunnels, bunkers and traps. In the Zagros mountains Alexander Macedonian lost his army, died of hunger and thirst. A memento. In fact, it's easier to get Tehran than to take over the Zagros Mountains. This means that until the war is over, the Strait of Ormuz will be shut down.
Conclusion
It's been over the days of the Gulf War. This is simply a qualitative and quantitative difference to the war from 8 months ago. The U.S. and Israel enjoy the success of killing Ali Chamenei, Iran's leader. As they say, good is simply a bad beginning. But these successes translate into victory. Chances to win the US coalition – Israel worsens with all hour. Unless there's a spectacular collaps, a breakdown or a military revolt in Iran. The Emperor's son, Padishach, as he lives, will die in exile.
One thing's for sure. Tales of a fast winning war have dispelled like smoke. The Iranians haven't shown anything they've prepared yet. Usa and Israel are facing a heavy, hard and long war, and their triumph is not certain. The longer the war continues, the odds of losing will grow. Time does not play in favour of the US and Israel. You can't topple a large country like Iran with just air strikes. Ridiculous assumption. The US can yet be forced into land war and that would be a disaster. Short: bad, worse.
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