November polls have brought further shuffle on the political stage, but they are not the ones that are most emotional today. Public attention has been drawn to the sharp conflict on the line by the European Commission - X, which has grown into a symbol of a much deeper dispute over the limits of freedom of expression, the function of EU regulation and the direction Europe is heading. In the background, tensions in Euro-Atlantic relations, strategical shifts in U.S. policy and ever-voting rebellions by associate States against Brussels office are increasing. And Polish political elites? They inactive do not seem to keep up with the fresh reality in which the existing pillars of safety and Western order are breaking.
We've got a November poll behind us. What did he bring in the short term? The Citizens' Coalition was strengthened as leader, with a 4–5 percent point advantage over the weakening Law and Justice, whose rankings fell below 30%. In a clear 3rd place is the Confederation, which maintains support of 14-15 percent. Further is Left – 6–7%. A small below this level is the Crown of Grzegorz Braun, and the others – I mean the organization Together, Polish People's organization and PL 2050 – are under the electoral threshold.
Theoretically, the coalition of Law and Justice and the Confederacy would have a majority, but its formation present seems hard in the face of systematic exchange of shots on the Jarosław Kaczyński – Sławomir Mentzen line.
Theoretically, it would besides be easy to establish a coalition that is theoretically possible, with the participation of a large part of the Confederacy and civilian Coalition. And the least likely – although arithmetically possible – would be an agreement between the civilian Coalition and Law and Justice.
The word is: although there are respective options on the horizon giving the majority after 2027, in practice we must prepare for political instability.
Leaving poll poles on the side – public attention has been focused on the European Commission – X, or erstwhile Twitter, for respective days. This relates to the punishment imposed by Brussels for the failure of Elona Muska's platform to comply with EU rules on the digital market. They are intended to defend us Europeans from misinformation.
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Many of the 50+ generation most likely remember that in the interest of us to receive only those good for power and not necessarily for the public, we had a censorship office in the Polish People's Republic.
Now Brussels has put this concern into terms and names that sound convincing to the ear – at least during the first phase. Who wouldn't want to fight force or force in the media, including the social media that we're in awe of. Only that if you go deeper into the subject, the thing starts to odor a small George Orwell from “Animal Farm” or “1984”. For there is simply a thin line between what is defined as evil and what can be defined as evil.
Opening a field to a show for the democratic totalitarians who are dressed in coats, who dream of interfering with freedom of speech, is nothing new. They dream of harmonising everything and everyone.
Let's go back to the war of Brussels with Musk. A year ago, 1 of the richest people in the planet informed the public that the European Commission had proposed an illegal, secret deal to Company X. He added that if the platform had secretly censored statements without informing anyone, then it would not have been punished within the meaning of EU regulations. It's hard to believe.
As Musk refused to cooperate on Brussels terms, it remained only a substance of time before the European Union decided to impose a punishment on his platform. This has besides happened, and the dispute we are watching present is another act of an always deeper conflict between EU regulatory ambition and platforms that do not want to become a tool for silent content control.
The European Commission's decision triggered the immediate reaction of Elon Musk himself. However, another players on both sides of the Atlantic have besides joined in the exchange of harsh sentences, which has only confirmed how much business has diverged, the thought of the future and the full set of values between Europe and the United States. So there is simply a fundamental question: how much more can we talk about the Euro-Atlantic community in the way it has functioned over the last 3 decades?
This is all happening at a time erstwhile the United States National safety strategy was published, in which black and white it was stated that Europe was rolling up, being badly managed and turning into a museum. At the same time, Washington announces that on the European continent, it will focus heavy on the governments of the states that emphasise the issues of sovereignty and the national community. What is more – Americans regularly send signals that Poland is among the “better ones” from the position of the White House.
Under these circumstances, our master of diplomacy, Deputy Prime Minister Sikorski, alternatively of shoving his tail and sitting quietly, glad that the statements of support did not even get specified a French cock Emmanuel Macron – and the position of Germany does not look besides unchangeable in this substance either – he decided to hit Musk after all, read: in Donald Trump. Master of twitter diplomacy.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk besides launched his first one, and I quote: “Dear American friends, Europe is your closest ally, not your problem. And we have common enemies. At least that's been the case for the last 80 years. We gotta stick to that. This is the only sensible strategy for our common security. Unless something has changed.” End of quote.
Well, it's changed, apparently. The diplomatic-analytical services of the alleged democratic camp are so unorthodox in this fresh planet – a planet that is happening before our eyes – that they have not outlined a fresh agenda for the Prime Minister of our country. Our second, next to Sikorski, master of twitter diplomacy.
Besides, it is simply a broader problem, which comes down to the fact that both the civilian Coalition and the Law and Justice – 2 inactive leading formations on the Polish political scene – are shocked that the safety construction in force since the end of the Cold War, that is, since 1989, is undergoing profound transformations today. They were all convinced that what they had put into their heads in the early 1990s: just enter NATO, enter the European Union and Poland will be safe, resourceful and unharmed - it will be binding forever. 1 direction, no reasoning about option B or C.
Unfortunately, we have these infantile, self-appointed elites. And here comes the fresh one. The United States must search to bring Russia closer to China – due to the fact that China and its power are the most crucial challenge for the United States. all kid in kindergarten knows this, but, as you can see, does not know the verchushka in Warsaw.
Polish politicians sleep?! Europe falls, USA changes strategy!
That is why the U.S.'s view of Europe will be different. This is why Europe will gotta take care of quite a few things on its own without looking at friends from outside the Atlantic. It makes you think, forces you to act.
In addition, we have a crisis in the European Union - a crisis of leadership and a way towards the future. National states are starting to revolt. A loud “no” for years for centralization, craziness of climate religion and immigration policy, says Budapest Viktor Orbán, joined by Slovakia Prime Minister Fica. And since the fresh elections, the Czech Republic has been cooking in a gold dispute with the European Central Bank on the Rome–Brussels line. Italians want to control their resources. We besides have powerful demonstrations in Bulgaria against the introduction of the euro.
Have you heard about the conflict on the Rome–Brussels line, Rome–Frankfurt (ECB) or about demonstrations in Bulgaria in the leading media stream? Nothing like that.
A week ago, the erstwhile head of European Union diplomacy, Federika Mogherini, was arrested in the background of corruption. Besides, the most crucial question is for the reasonable and predictive: not ‘or’, but ‘when’ will come for von der Leyen herself? For the scandalous acquisition of vaccines from Pfizer for billions of euros.
The comic thing about all this is that this European Union – without order and composition, bent towards decline – is that all another day, something is going to be over there about the community and the bright future.
