On 11 November, the Patriots for Europe Foundation hosted an inaugural lecture in the European Parliament by prof. John Mearsheimer, 1 of the most influential figures of modern political realism.
A student from the University of Chicago with characteristic precision and clarity outlined his analysis of how the war began and 5 scenarios that could specify the future of Ukraine and the European continent.
"Europe is in serious problem and the origin of this crisis lies in the war in Ukraine," warned Mearsheimer at the beginning of his speech. "The same West, especially the United States, provoked conflict by trying to bring Ukraine into NATO". With this statement, the American prof. summed up over 3 decades of strategical errors that he thought turned Europe's balance into a plaque of permanent instability.
Mearsheimer recalled that after the collapse of the russian Union, “the Western elite suffered the illusion of monopolarity”, believing that the planet could be shaped “in the image and likeness of the American liberal model”. He explained that it was the same "hegemonic arrogance" that led Washington and Brussels to shift NATO's borders to the east, ignoring Moscow's repeated warnings.
Quoting erstwhile CIA manager William Burns, Mearsheimer recalled his celebrated 2008 memorandum: “The entrance of Ukraine to NATO is the brightest red line for the Russian elite.” He added: “Angela Merkel had already warned that this decision would be interpreted by Moscow as a declaration of war. But no 1 listened.”
According to Mearsheimer, the war, which began in February 2022, was not an imperial Russian offensive, but a "preventive war" to prevent Ukraine from becoming a "western aggression platform". With a typical numerical precision, the prof. compared the invasion to the 1939 German campaign: “Russia entered from 100,000 to 190 000 soldiers — forces insufficient to conquer a country the size of Ukraine. It was not a full invasion, but a limited operation."
For Mearsheimer, the situation is clear: “Russia wins the war to exhaustion. It has more people, more artillery and more industrial potential." In his opinion, Kiev has no human and material resources to defy indefinitely, and West fatigue only exacerbates the problem. "Ukraine is entirely dependent on western weapons and neither Europe nor the United States can keep this effort going bankrupt," he concluded.
In the final part of his lecture, the American student outlined 5 possible futures for Ukraine, all of which, he said, are “bad and any worse than others”.
- Partial triumph of Russia and frozen conflict. "The most likely scenario," he said, "is Moscow's ugly victory, consolidation from 20 to 40% of Ukraine's territory, while the remainder of the country becomes a fallen European dependent state".
- Pragmatic negotiations. "The best option for Ukrainians would be to get on a plane, go to Moscow and accept the failure of Crimea and east regions. That would be a bad result, but the least bad one," he stressed. "Every day more Ukrainians die in a war they cannot win".
- Regional escalation. Mearsheimer warned that "the tensions between Russia and Europe will not end with a ceasefire". He listed six possible future inflammatory points: the Arctic, the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad, Belarus, Moldova and the Black Sea. "Europe will stay a dangerous continent," he said.
- U.S. withdrawal and NATO weakening. "The safety structure of Europe depends on the American Pacific," he explained. But the United States is already turning towards Asia, and Trump has no interest in saving Europe. If Washington goes away, NATO will fall.”
- Political disintegration in Europe. Finally, Mearsheimer predicted a period of instability in the EU itself. "When defeat comes, the game of blame will begin," he said. "Europeans will blame each another and consequence in a more divided, poorer and little safe continent".
The full audience listened silently erstwhile the prof. concluded the reflection seldom heard during those days in the halls of the European Parliament devoted to political correctness:
“The disaster in Ukraine is the work of the West. If we had not promised to enter NATO in 2008, Ukraine would be intact present and Europe would be more prosperous."
According to Mearsheimer, the continent has reached its turning point: “Europe must learn to live without the illusions of globalist liberalism and without Washington’s curate. Otherwise, he will one more time pay the price for others' mistakes.” He concluded: “History has not ended, as Fukuyama erstwhile claimed. This is just starting over, and Europe remains without a map and a compass."
Behind: The European Conservative
photo. mearsheimer.com
