Donald Tusk, not a day, but respective days after the election, actually flew to Brussels, but so far he has not obtained the declared effect of unlocking funds from the KPO. Why? due to the fact that the EU under German management expects Polish authorities to act alternatively than declare. And this is not about passing any laws restoring the alleged regulation of law in Poland. As Tusk himself said erstwhile he returned from Brussels: “We request to show applicable first steps and they should suffice."
What are the applicable first steps? The first step is to approve the amount of the eco-tax on cars, called the exhaust tax. The taxation on the interior combustion must pay owners of all cars with combustion engines in all EU countries. This is simply a condition for the mobilisation of national recovery plans. The KPO has so far received payments from those countries which have approved the amount of specified tax. In the Netherlands, this one-off amount is 650 euro for each diesel car and covers the year 2024. Let us presume (optimistly) that in Poland the taxation will be 500 euros. At the end of 2022 there were 26,675,000 cars registered in Poland, of which 32,555 were full electric. Poland will so pay the European Union an interior combustion taxation (collected from car owners) of: EUR 26,642,445 x 500 = EUR 13,32 billion, i.e. counting at a rate of PLN 4.5 per euro. PLN 59.94 billion.
Let us callback the amounts allocated to Poland from the KPO programme. Poland is to receive PLN 158.5 billion, including PLN 106.9 billion in the form of grants and PLN 51.6 billion in the form of preferential loans. The debt must be reimbursed, so the amount of the grant of PLN 106.9 billion is important, of which in the budgetary position for 2024 is recorded PLN 36 billion. The first applicable step will look as follows:
Tusk will pay PLN 59.94 billion to the Union after which it will receive PLN 36 billion from the KPO
and announce it as its individual success in recovering blocked funds for Poland!
This is the first step Tusk will take. What's next? There will most likely be many of them, 1 of the next will most likely block the construction of the CPK – Central Communication Port. Why? Let's look at facts and figures again. Chopin Airport in Warsaw (Okęcie) is only 35th largest airport in Europe. We do not have a large global airport in Poland. It must be stressed that this is not a question of passenger traffic, but, above all, of cargo transport. Although air freight transport is little than 1% of the world's volume of freight, in terms of the value of cargo transport, air freight transport is more than 30% of global freight transport. It is mainly electronics, luxury goods and agri-food. Therefore, destination airports through which goods enter the marketplace (national or continental) derive tremendous profits from customs duties and taxes charged on the value of these goods alternatively than on their volumes. Today, a large group of goods purchased by Polish customers goes to our country via airports in another countries, mainly in Germany and the Netherlands, and the associated customs and taxation charges feed their budgets. In the event of the creation of a CPK to be the 10th largest airport in Europe (the 10th, not the first, it seems to those who talk about megalomania), the situation will be reversed. In the CPK, not only goods ordered by Polish customers will be sent to another countries specified as the Czech Republic, Austria or even Germany. And it is Poland, alternatively of paying another countries the fees related to the clearance of goods at their airports, that will start charging them for the Polish budget.
individual might say it sounds nice, but it's just a theory. So let's look at the numbers and the analyses developed by renowned global financial agencies. 1 of them is the UK agency EY, whose name comes from Ernst & Young Global Limited associate companies, each of which is simply a separate legal entity. EY has over 700 offices in 150 countries, as shown on the map below, so it is hard to presume that this agency is on the PiSu bar and the current Polish government:
According to Ernst & Young, the state budget for the construction of the airport will return after 12 years, only from customs and VAT revenues. It is worth noting that the analysis of the UK agency is based solely on the forecasting of the gross to the budget resulting from the trade in goods. The analysis does not take into account another factors, specified as passenger traffic charges, or the effects of stimulating the economy as a consequence of entering the Polish economy and the Polish logistics and communication network. Ernst & Young adopted 3 scenarios erstwhile assessing customs and taxation revenues: base and low and advanced demand, allowing a realistic (not optimistic) estimation of these revenues.
The calculated 12-year profitability of CPK construction is an excellent forecaster. erstwhile constructing motorways, their profitability based on toll revenues is estimated at 20 to 30 years. Only another factors, specified as the simplification in the number of accidents, the simplification in the cost of car operation or the simplification of negative environmental impacts, are causing profitability and social costs to return after respective years. In addition to assessing the viability of CPK, an crucial component of Ernst & Young's analysis is the forecasting of future budget revenues. The authors estimation that in the span of respective years from the minute of the return of investments, the Polish budget will receive PLN 200 billion from the customs and taxes themselves. No wonder The consortium of Vinci Airports and the IFM Global Infrastructure Fund reported their willingness to invest PLN 8 billion in the construction of the CPK, in exchange for taking number shareholdings (49 %) in CPK. Their function as strategical investors will be not only to contribute capital to CPK, but besides to experience and know-how associated with the implementation of this kind of investment and their subsequent exploitation. The Paris-based Airports Consortium is simply a global leader in large infrastructure processes. It operates in 120 countries and participates in managing and operating 65 airports in 12 countries. The IFM Global Infrastructure Fund is an infrastructure investment fund based in Australia. It manages assets of a full value of about $143 billion, participates in investments related to the construction and expansion of 17 airports on respective continents, including Vienna, Manchester, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth or Brisbane. It is hard to presume that these companies are on the PiSu belt and the current Polish government.
I have discussed the financial consequences of only the first 2 steps that the Tusk government intends to take after taking over. But the list is long. On this list is besides the halting of the construction of the container port in Świnoujście and another pro-development investments, which were expected to make advanced profits for the Polish budget, affect the financial safety of Poland and the wealth of Polish citizens.
The government of the full opposition with Donald Tuski at the head is ready to cut these investments, is ready to give back billions of PLN to Germany and the European Union in exchange for a penny in aid schemes. It is ready to bring the Polish economy to a full collapse and Polish society to poverty. Does another minister of the Tusk government gotta announce that there is no money and that there will be no Poles, alternatively of looking at the aparity of elected politicians, start looking at numbers and comparing costs and profits?
But if we hear again that there is no money, will we inactive have a choice? Will Members of the Polish Land be elected by us, or will they be appointed by the national European authorities based in Berlin?
Mr Bogdan
P.S.
There was a mystery once: the easiest way to lose weight. As follows: buy the weight for 500 PLN and then sale it for 100 PLN. Now there is simply a fresh puzzle: why nearly 65% of Poles voting in the last elections supported specified transactions.
