Mapping Europe’s Coming Population Crash
This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, shows the projected change in population levels for every European country between now and the year 2100.
Data is sourced from the UN World Population Prospects 2024, using their medium variant estimates.
The medium variant scenario means the UN thinks this is the most likely outcome, taking into account birth and death rates, and migration patterns.
Ranked: Europe’s Population Change by Country
For the last few decades Europe’s birth rates have fallen below replacement rate (which keeps population levels the same), and this will only accelerate going into the future.
As a result, most European countries will see their population fall between now and the year 2100.
| UK | GBR | +4.8M | +7% |
| France | FRA | +1.8M | +3% |
| Sweden | SWE | +710.3K | +7% |
| Switzerland | CHE | +158.7K | +2% |
| Luxembourg | LUX | +67.5K | +10% |
| Monaco | MCO | +9.1K | +24% |
| Liechtenstein | LIE | +3.5K | +9% |
| San Marino | SMR | -2.4K | -7% |
| Ireland | IRL | -21.9K | 0% |
| Andorra | AND | -35.7K | -43% |
| Iceland | ISL | -35.7K | -9% |
| Denmark | DNK | -139.3K | -2% |
| Malta | MLT | -185.5K | -34% |
| Norway | NOR | -209.5K | -4% |
| Montenegro | MNE | -306.7K | -48% |
| Slovenia | SVN | -485.0K | -23% |
| Estonia | EST | -518.7K | -39% |
| Kosovo | XKX | -579.4K | -35% |
| Belgium | BEL | -697.8K | -6% |
| Netherlands | NLD | -839.3K | -5% |
| Latvia | LVA | -928.2K | -50% |
| North Macedonia | MKD | -950.8K | -52% |
| Finland | FIN | -1.0M | -18% |
| Moldova | MDA | -1.5M | -50% |
| Albania | ALB | -1.6M | -57% |
| Lithuania | LTU | -1.6M | -57% |
| Portugal | PRT | -1.7M | -16% |
| Croatia | HRV | -1.7M | -44% |
| Austria | AUT | -1.7M | -19% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | BIH | -1.8M | -56% |
| Slovakia | SVK | -2.1M | -37% |
| Hungary | HUN | -2.2M | -23% |
| Czechia | CZE | -2.4M | -22% |
| Serbia | SRB | -3.0M | -45% |
| Bulgaria | BGR | -3.2M | -47% |
| Greece | GRC | -3.7M | -37% |
| Belarus | BLR | -4.6M | -52% |
| Romania | ROU | -8.1M | -43% |
| Germany | DEU | -13.1M | -16% |
| Spain | ESP | -14.8M | -31% |
| Russia | RUS | -17.6M | -12% |
| Poland | POL | -18.8M | -49% |
| Italy | ITA | -23.8M | -40% |
| Ukraine | UKR | -23.8M | -61% |
Naturally the most populous countries on the continent will see large swings, like Germany (-13.8 million), Poland (-18.8 million), and Italy (-23.8 million).
Regionally, Eastern Europe has seen declines since the 1990s, and that trend will only accelerate as this century progresses. Russia and Ukraine will together lose 40 million people by 2100.
Nevertheless, migration (both within the continent and from outside the region) can boost population levels.
For the UK (+4.8 million) and France (+1.8 million), this will lead to population growth rather than declines.
However, this is a small group. The UN projects that only seven European countries will have a larger population in 2100 than in 2025.
Important to remember that these are all estimates and can vary depending on the source. Eurostat (the official data source for the EU) has more countries in the green than the UN, though their estimates were made in 2022.
What Does This Mean For Europe?
A population decline is not something most economies are built for. Fewer people equals shrinking consumer demand, critical to the economy.
It also means a smaller tax net, which directly funds expansive social security measures that Europe is famous for.
For the last few decades migration into the region (from Asia and the Middle East) has kept the population growing.
However, the booster effect from international migration is set to drop off a lot closer than most expect. Eurostat projects that 2026 will be Europe’s peak population point, after which levels will begin to trend down.
Need more Europe info on your radar? Check out Europe’s Most In-Demand Jobs in case you’re looking to move.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/15/2025 – 08:45
