For years Germany has been regarded as the most crucial state in the European Union: economically and politically strong, with the long ruling Chancellor Angela Merkel as a kind of symbol. But the Merkel era has long passed, and Germany – weakened by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the breakdown of the SPD, Greens and FDP coalitions – inactive do not have a fresh government.
However, this vacuum was filled: despite, or possibly due to interior political disputes in Paris, Emmanuel Macron is the fresh European star on the global political scene. In the midst of the global shock caused by US action under Donald Trump, the French president became the most crucial leader in Europe.
Germany is busy building a government
The Germans are now occupied with themselves. In Berlin, the CDU/CSU chapedencies that won the election effort to form a fresh government from the SPD, which led the erstwhile government coalition. Olaf Scholz of SPD is now acting as interim chancellor. And it is unclear whether his likely successor Friedrich Merz of the CDU will take office before Easter or much later.
Although Scholz and Merz work together to keep a unified state policy internationally, Germany is presently incapable to presume a strong leadership function in the EU. And it's at a time erstwhile Trump's duties and Russia's violent war in Ukraine origin global shocks.
President Macron is not standing still. He has always been 1 of the most respected heads of state in the world. In the current turmoil, this 47-year-old peculiarly frequently speaks, both as president of France and as informal ambassador of the European Union.
France has more and more to say
– She expresses her position – says Gesine Weber of Think Tank German Marshall Fund. Although it is agreed with the Heads of State and Government of another EU countries, Macron, as the expert emphasizes, is above all the president of France. However, the 2 roles are linked, "because most European interests are besides French interests and vice versa".
While most European leaders consider expanding defence spending and harmonising the defence strategy, Macron goes 1 step further. He has been talking for any time about the deployment of European troops in Ukraine. He besides proposed to grow the French atomic arsenal and turn it into a European shield.
In another areas of abroad policy, Macron seeks to advance European interests in a French way. “Europe has become very French over the last 5 years,” says Gesine Weber. After a tiny start, Macron is now a political leader in the EU erstwhile it comes to Ukraine. He besides tries to impose on Europe her line of action in a customs dispute with the US.
The affirmative origin here is that Macron knows Donald Trump from his first word in the White House. “He was the first European head of state or government to be able to establish or rebuild relations with Trump,” he says.
Macron doesn't have much time left.
But Macron is already considered to be a “ball duck”, the head of a state whose word is coming to an end and whose meaning and authority are slow decreasing. The next presidential election in France will take place in 2027, and Macron cannot run in them after 2 terms. This means that he has only 2 years left to carry out his imagination of France and Europe.
Jacob Ross, a specialist in German-French relations in the German abroad Society (DGAP), claims that France is well prepared to lead Europe through hard times today: "At least in intellectual terms, the French are in a very good position to take leadership."
The analyst points to the conventional attitude of France, which focuses on independency and sees a greater function for Europe in the world, independent of the US. Is this assurance adequate for France to play the leading European power? Jacob Ross, as an expert on France, has doubts: "France is very heavy indebted and has small area for manoeuvre to increase spending on various purposes, including defence."
According to Jacob Ross after taking office in 2017 Macron has become the main origin of ideas in European politics “The current situation is conducive to him, but France has no material basis to be able to fulfill its ambitions on its own”, the expert says.
Jacob Ross and Gesine Weber uncertainty whether a single leader, specified as Merkel – only this time from France – can lead Europe to a fresh function and greater importance in the world. In the face of the protectionist doctrine of "American First" by Donald Trump and the war in Ukraine, the best solution for Europeans may be to strengthen conventional alliances: the French-German axis with a strong ally across the English Channel, with a erstwhile EU-UK member.
