Brussels has not achieved its objective: an embargo on gas imports from Russia. Despite this, it is being pushed out of Europe in various ways. I'm amazed she inactive gets it. What is the map of Russian gas presence on the Old Continent?
Europe reduced Russian gas imports last year, bringing in only 62 billion m3 of gas pipelines (compared to 140 billion in 2021). This is to be just 40-45 billion m3. Including LNG.
Russian methane is so slow disappearing from the European energy landscape, as oil, fuel and coal have already disappeared. However, not everywhere the process goes the same – gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, the more north, the more frozen, the farther south, the hotter they work. The northernmost – tiny pipeline to Finland – closed after the operation "gas behind ruble" (Ruble gas, who lost? | Think Poland (myślpolska.info)
The world's largest gas pipelines – Nord Stream 1 and 2 by the Baltic – were blown up. They could send 110 billion m3/year. And although 1 of the 4 threads someway survived, nothing flows with it. It is actual that president Putin repeatedly repeats the offer of supplies to the public, claiming that the gas can flow the next day, “just unscrew the valve”. But Germany proudly says no. This pride comes from America holding their throats tight and beating off ideas of economical cooperation with Russia.
Polish “Jamał” (33 billion m3/r) was first drained by refusal to pay in rubles, then requisitioned the Russian part of the property in EuRoPolGaz. As retortions Russia imposed sanctions – it banned all interests with the owner. So it's empty. Paradoxically, more south the pipeline works through Ukraine. This is simply a country at war with Russia, sending it gas and charging for it. Not just gas, oil. Although twice as much gas could flow, only 14 billion m3/year flows.
The confederate part of the Old Continent holds much stronger Russian gas than the northern one. Austria, Slovakia and, above all, Hungary are hard on this supplier. Here the gas is besides coming through Turkey, to which 2 pipelines from Russia lead. The Blue Stream, sending 16 billion m3/year, and the Turkish Stream, whose 2 strands of 15.75 million m3/r besides supply confederate Europe. And they're working hard, although they've late grown a fresh unexpected barrier. Bulgaria itself, without importing Russian gas (as 1 of the few, she listened to Brussels' calls not to pay for gas in rubles), joined rather first sanctions. From day to day, on 13 October, she imposed a taxation on the transit of Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary. This is ~47 PLN/MWh at a gas price of 235 PLN, or 20% of the price. This is much more than a fewer tiny percentages of transmission charges accepted. This previously seemed impossible, even impossible, to impose customs duties on intra-Union transit. And present you can...
As you can see, part of Europe is inactive clinging to pipelines from Russia, but fresh European markets are acquiring Russian liquefied gas (LNG), which in the last half of the year the EU bought by 40% more. It is impressive, but quantitatively small – in ’21 imports were only 13.5 billion m3, in ’22 much more – 19.3 billion, and in the first half of the current 1 – 10.8 billion.
But LNG reaches, and as much as 37% of these deliveries are received by France, it is readily purchased by Spain (18% of Russian LNG exports) or Belgium – 17%. For comparison, China is 20%. These are completely fresh markets, as Russia in Belgium did not number (7th place among LNG suppliers) as in Spain (5th place). This second Russian gas saved from problem erstwhile the unrest in West Africa caused a disruption of supplies from Algeria. And it was for purely political reasons – Spain withdrew its support for Algeria in the Western Sahara case, so Algiers, after informing (did not help), redirected his deliveries to Italy. As you can see, Russian gas sometimes saves another countries from their energy problems, which is completely impossible to see from our place on the map.
Despite all this, Europe is inactive the most profitable marketplace for Gazprom. Last year it received incredibly advanced prices (984 dollars per 1000m3). This year, the appearance that the price will be around $500 erstwhile gas for China costs $300. The shrinking, diverse geography, but very profitable European marketplace - let us summarise this review.
Andrzej Szczęsniak
No 45-46 (5-12.11.2023)
