Jęczniak: Russian gas flees to China

The detonation of the Nord Stream pipeline sealed a extremist shift in Russian gas supply directions. The West said NOT so clearly that it is hard to imagine a stronger refusal. Whether the European audience wanted it or not. Roma locuta causa finita.

Russia has been preparing for specified a turn of things for many years. At the beginning of this century, it was entirely directed and linked to the export of gas to the west, to Europe. In today's slang it is called “addictive.” In reality, however, Russia was highly dependent on Europe, not the another way around, as it was honked with lice and towards. As many as 88% of Russian oil exports went to the Union, while gas – 70%. Conversely, imports of Russian oil account for 33% of EU imports and 34% of gas imports.

This was the case in 2013 and since then Russia has done a lot to free itself from this dependency. But not everything, so the transition period will be difficult, long and painful. As powerful gas or oil infrastructure that connects Russia and Europe does not arise at the snap of fingers. These 2 worlds have been connected for half a century since Russia pulled the first gas pipelines and then oil pipelines west. In 1968, russian gas reached Baumgarten, Austria, and in 1973 – West Germany.

The Russians, looking at how the U.S. is actually turning distant European imports, were preparing for the script of breaking energy ties, even those most vulnerable, or gas. 2 fresh export directions have been built for years: LNG and Asia, specifically China. This second way is the most spectacular, as there is simply a global geopolitics active – building an alliance against the world's Hegemon. Russia has found in it a player who will gladly buy all the gas that Europe does not want.

The first preparations lasted 10 years, since the signing of the strategical Cooperation Agreement in 2004 by the 2010 agreement of 68 billion gas to be solemn in May 2014 (in the presence of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping) a contract of the century on deliveries of 38 billion m3 per year was signed. Then the Siberian Power pipeline began to be built, which connected 2 completely fresh gas deposits of east Siberia: Chajandinskoje, and later Kowkta with the Chinese border. And on 1 December 2018, it sailed the first always pipeline gas from Russia to China.

Now this cooperation is developing rapidly. Gas exports are increasing rapidly, although they are far from the mark size and are inactive little than Europe. However, an increase in the first contract to 44 billion m3 is already being negotiated.

An crucial step in improvement was the signing of the agreement during the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, besides in the presence of Putin and Xi (and just before the Ukrainian War). It provides for the supply of fresh 10 billion m3 of gas (as much as Russian exports to Poland before) from Sakhalin 3 to the east provinces of China. Gas is to sail through Chabarovsk and Vladivostok – this is the task Power of Siberia 3. Numbering of projects, as you can see, distorted, but far east gas is much closer to the distance between the deposit and the recipient, smaller volumes, there are already pipelines and a natural material base is running, so the task can be implemented quickly.

Now another task is on – the Power of Siberia 2. Previously called ‘Altaj’, as the first version was to go through the advanced mountains of Altaj, where there is simply a short section of the Chinese-Russian border. However, the method problems needed to overcome the heights caused problems. The thought was abandoned, but the anticipation of redirecting gas from Western Siberia deposits from exports to Europe to Asia is besides tempting. It means that the Russians will not be sentenced to western direction of export, but the supply can be switched between these 2 powerful consumers of blue fuel.

The another thread is to go through Mongolia. Gazprom has already conducted a feasibility survey of the project. affirmative result, agreement with Mongolia concluded, joint-stocked company, way checked. All indicates that Siberia 2's power, along a completely fresh route, will be able to export 50 billion m3 of gas a year. 30% more than the first, East Siberian, and somewhat little than the damaged Nord Stream 1 or 2 pipeline explosions.

One thing is essential – a contract with China, and in it a price. Previously, it lasted 10 years, 8 years since the western task began... We'll see.

Andrzej Szczęsniak

photo by RIA Novosti

Think Poland, No. 45-46 (6-13.11.2022)