When a full-scale war began in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the planet held its breath, as the danger of a global conflict became rather real. Of course, this war did not break out overnight, and its causes were far more complex than what it was trying to present to us by biased and lying propaganda. As noted by an outstanding American political scientist John Mearsheimer, the prologue of the future conflict was the announcement of Ukraine's (and Georgia's) admission to NATO, at the 2008 Bucharest Pact Summit. These were clearly targeted at the geopolitical interests of Russia, which could be expected to respond. The further inflammation of the conflict took place in 2013, erstwhile there were carefully directed protests in Majdan, followed by a coup resulting in the overthrow of president Viktor Yanukovych. The continuation is well known, and the final consequence of the externally inspired actions was the outbreak of a full-sized war.
In fact, the war in Ukraine is simply a substitute war between Russia and NATO. Without financial support and military assistance from western countries, Ukraine would not be able to proceed its war even in a short period of time. In fact, it's mainly up to US politics how long this war will last. Further supporting the war will mean multiplying the number of victims, especially on the side of Ukraine. It is about both population and material losses. The consequence of the war, in addition to the failure of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, is besides the massive depopulation of the country (since February 2022 the population of Ukraine has decreased by more than 10 million inhabitants) and the collapse of the widely understood infrastructure. As a consequence of the war, Ukraine has become a state if not fallen, profoundly dysfunctional and in chaos. From the position of our country, this is simply a highly worrying situation. Ukraine's instability poses a direct threat to Poland. Data from the Ministry of the Interior and Administration of December 2024 show that there are 1.5 million citizens of Ukraine in Poland, while around 980,000 people benefit from temporary protection [1]. 1 of the consequences of the war in Ukraine is the change in the cultural structure of our country, which has ceased to be a single country of nationality. This should be added to the immense costs that Poland has incurred in helping alleged "Ukrainian refugees", which consist in peculiar of the costs of accommodation, food, medical care, education and social care. A separate issue is military aid to Ukraine worth over PLN 14 billion [2].
Prolongation of war activities in Ukraine increases the hazard of escalation, resulting in the hazard of a global conflict with unforeseeable consequences. This is peculiarly dangerous for Poland as a “front country” and especially active in assistance to Ukraine. Politicians' actions in this area are contrary to common sense and self-preservation. Therefore, the possible of ending the war, which appeared after talks by Donald Trump with Vladimir Putin, is good information for Poland and the world.The very fact of dialog and a joint declaration expressing the will to end the war is simply a milestone in the right direction and gives optimism. Of course, beginning champagne is inactive premature, since the way to peace can be hard and bumpy. Unfortunately, many environments and distribution centres are in favour of continuing their war effort and even their escalation. It is regrettable to note the presence of leading Polish politicians. Despite the obstacles and difficulties, however, there was a clear light in the tunnel and we should hope that the peace talks of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will bring affirmative results.
Michał Radzikowski
[1] Kamil Nowak: How many Ukrainians are in Poland? The hotel provided fresh data – forsal.pl – 19.12.2024,
[2] "Poland has provided Ukraine with military aid worth over PLN 14 billion" – www.bankier.pl – 19.11.2024.
