The Pisca bill named lex Tusk hung over us and triggered a reaction. But what will it be for longer than a fewer days of increase? What will it do? Apart from the march of definitely awesome attendance? Apart from the fact that we will again find that “there is power”? It's clear what we all think of a written idea. And what they think of him in crucial places abroad. But it is in no way clear what we will do ourselves. In this case, a fewer thoughts, if I may. Lex Tusk, treated properly, may have the possible to build a movement that wins elections or deprives the Law and Justice erstwhile the ruling elections decide not to, for example, do not.
Contrary to many voices lex Tusk is no threshold moment. Although everyone is repeating about the final breakup with democracy – neither is the first act of outright lawlessness, nor the most important, nor is it surely the last, due to the fact that within a fewer months before the elections we will see many. It is besides not the first attack aimed straight at the freedom of elections, due to the fact that here we have besides practiced many, headed by the 2020 presidential vote. If this minute gives emergence to an increase in particular, then possibly it is good, due to the fact that possibly it will yet scope us in a social, besides electoral scale, and not only in our bubble, that it is time to end with the power of the Law and Justice. It may besides come to us – which I think is more crucial – that elections in the autumn do not gotta take place at all or that the political committee of the Law and Justice will decide who is allowed to run in them. We should know for a long time that possibly the elections will should be challenged – internationally – that we request opposition and strong social legitimacy of leadership in this resistance, alternatively than the policy we are utilized to. I cannot measure the likelihood of specified options, but it must be taken seriously adequate to prepare for them. If lex Tusk and the agitation we see has a chance to do so, then at least that's good.
Purpose of the written provocation
We do not know him well, and any analysis of possible written calculations besides disturbs uncertainty about the intellectual condition of this camp. We are not certain – there is simply a difference of opinion and utmost assessments – whether we are dealing with a bunch of idiots or highly clever strategists. I myself powerfully thin towards the first assessment, but with each of these opposing assumptions, the written strategy can be recognized, uncovering an answer to all possible variant.
Lawyers, for example, are a bit hysterical present erstwhile they say that the vagueness of the unusual wordings of lex Tusk and the bill of liability for the violation of public finances, to which it refers, can be utilized by the average writers, precisely to ban candidates in elections. Assuming the rationality of the policy of the Law and Justice, it would not make much sense to effort to take distant the right to exercise power from the enemy after the victory, since if it did, they would take it without any trouble. So if lex Tusk has a rational purpose, then it would be logical to see in it a means to exclude an opponent from the game, alternatively than to take distant his joy from winning, due to the fact that it cannot be done. But exploring the rationality of the strategical election of the Law and Justice is, in my opinion, an aberration, contrary to myths of the president's farsightedness. In my opinion, he's a cymbal who's made a good time for cymbals and circumstances in which he doesn't request reason for anything. Lex Tusk may not have a rational goal, but without it it can besides be effective, as many another completely chaotic PiS actions. With the Kaczyński Act he overstepped unwisely, as happened to him many times – e.g. with the attack on courts and conflict against this background with the Union, with the envelope elections that threatened him with an effective boycott and yet with the ban on abortion, which brought him the first serious and lasting decline in polling quotations. All these were cardinal errors, but we should remember that although each of them could cost Kaczyński power, no of them cost.
It is besides worth to be aware of a number of limitations that all aspiring dictator is subject to and respective poses that he must take on in his role. In 2020, just before the envelope election, the utmost right-wing press wrote about them the lyrics I would compose myself. That it's against reason against the threat of a pandemic, that it's against the constitution and whatever the concept of legalism and fair play. The SS electors like to think, they like to have an excuse to think that democracy inactive works, and the written “people's justice” has at least the justification that even freedom of choice does not violate and everything that power does takes place with the consent of the majority. This pretext of PiS supporters was lost erstwhile the presidential election began to bury. They recovered it erstwhile the opposition agreed to the presidential vote. But not long after the abortion ruling, Kaczyński would have lost the election if it had taken place, due to the fact that the PiS voters stated that the full ban on abortion was an exaggeration, just as it was crazy to start almost a civilian war at the top of the pandemic, which these people yet began to take seriously, frightened completely not at all.
So I think that lex Tusk is simply a PR tool, not a repression against which the PiS has consistently retreated, although it was frequently provoked by enemies and encouraged by supporters. Tusk in the name is besides of PR importance – as a tool of repression it should be, for example, lex Pawlak. Tuska will, yes, grill more intensively than today, but the right to service will not deny him. nevertheless strong is the hatred of the written followers to Tusk's wolf eyes, the effort to openly forcefully exclude him from the game will take Kaczyński's legitimacy from his own followers. And Kaczyński knows that, no substance how much he was breathing out his head with a desire for revenge. Thus, sanctions will fall alternatively – if they fall at all, which I highly uncertainty – alternatively on others, according to the tactics of cutting salami. The goal will be chosen to prove easy in power.
What would we do if the penalties provided for in Lex Tusk fell, for example, on Waldemar Pawlak? Including a no-candidate?
Imagining myself in the place of Kaczyński and in his function – I would have struck Pawlak. I can already compose texts present that the leaders of the 4 opposition parties would make on this occasion, and possibly under any circumstances they would actually publish. That “scandal” that “the end of democracy” that “there will never be our consent”, that, however, nothing can be done against “sey arithmetic”. That in the "play in all conditions" election we must stand to them, although they break the constitution and we must win them. If Polish politics are to look like what it has looked like over the last years, we will besides swallow this frog – who would die for Pawlak? In specified a situation, however, the election does not endanger us. It is worth remembering – it would be adequate to kill us so that we would have a certain, though Pawlak even with the full PSL, is simply a marginal number of votes. I do not believe that Kaczyński will take this advice from me, but the triumph besides moves distant from us erstwhile another, in my opinion, the actual intent of the written interlude is fulfilled.
It serves – not accidentally launched on the eve of the planned opposition offensive and march on 4 June – to cement the polarization we are experiencing in anger. The Pissian storyteller is expected to have fun while watching power crush agents who are afraid to squirm. He will not crush them in the end – he will show that spies are going to the elections against her mainly to avoid deserved punishment. However, polarisation is more important. It silences and will silence long disputes on the right, which will set off for a long-term war against Russian agents, but besides cements the opposition camp around Tusk's character and around the customary lamentations of written lawlessness and about our outrage. The aim is besides to specify this polarization, which limits opposition supporters to supporters of PO and Donald Tusk. It is besides Kaczyński who cuts opposition "wings". To any extent, all of this has been happening for any time, although we will not be able to announcement it for a while now. The way out is to break the inability of "symical arithmetic", which opposition politicians are always talking about by spreading their hands. The way out is to show that you can. The exit is an offensive initiative.
One must know, of course, that the triumph will besides go distant erstwhile the Law and Justice organization starts juggling, for example, extraordinary states. In charge of the Law and Justice, there are inactive “political gold” threats from Putin (Putin will be happy to usage them, as long as he is not besides busy) and many another possibilities.
Offensive scenario
Lex Tusk is lawlessness. This law should be considered non-existent. And knock out her teeth, making the committee openly powerless – whether we believe in the horror of the hoody court, as most comments inform her, or whether we put it in the fairy tales, as I see it. The opposition absolutely must boycott this bill—with all the consequences. Not only must it not be included – this ban is apparent and I hope it does not rise controversy.
You can't stand in front of this committee. You can't respond to her calls. It is hard – fines in a full of PLN 70,000 are a problem that needs to be dealt with and more or little we know how to do it. The essential engagement of the courts and public financial contributions is not a problem at the same time, but an asset for always greater mobilisation. No 1 should appear in front of a committee another than the force carried out in handcuffs. He should besides refuse to answer any question. Have it broadcast to the TVP as planned by the bill. The Law and Justice on this can only lose. There is neither a good tv script for them, nor a changing image of the repressive action game.
Any individual and any institution that sends any material to the committee should be treated as a collaborator of the regime. Social force and all forms of force should be as strong as possible, and universal. present we must request from all that ruthless disobedience that the judges have shown so far – how effective! – but unfortunately no 1 else. Or indeed, lex Tusk is simply a war waged by democracy and free elections, or it's just how we talk about it at press conferences that no 1 (all right) believes in anymore.
The opposition should already powerfully announce present that if lex Tusk deprives anyone of passive electoral rights, the opposition will boycott the election. It is possible, indeed, not to make an effective boycott and to make the manipulated choices impossible to admit anyone in the Western world. respective costly and hard conditions must be met – but their fulfilment would possibly not be essential at the same time, but surely more than adequate condition for election triumph if the election were to take place.
Lex Tusk, of course, does not end the problem. In fact, just as the Law and Justice are starting a series of easy to imagine further actions, so should we begin our own series. The problem is – as it has been said – not only the maximization of the electoral result, it is besides the question of those who are not yet able to dispel “what if” and the anticipation of specified utmost manipulation that elections must be considered illegal and invalid. A clear attack on democracy and freedom of choice and their hard defence yet make the anticipation of a actual definition of the upcoming electoral clash.
For years I have been and stay with the Polish citizens a supporter of the common list. Not under conditions imposed by the strongest organization and negotiated in cabinet organization meetings of leaders, but chosen in universal, interparty primaries. I thought and inactive think that the main reason for the failure of the common list, which almost everyone is expecting today, is the fact that Donald Tusk and his strongest organization are inviting her and critically crucial for the endurance of the remaining parties the sovereign necessity, so in their opinion it is essential to separate “count” in elections. I thought and inactive think that not the program alliance, but the competitive primaries that make the PiS not another organization and not a organization coalition, but the full democratic parliament, are the only way that the voices of the democratic alliance add up to each another alternatively of putting up with each other. Finally, I thought, and inactive think, that only in this way, an effective electoral strategy will not deny the principles of democracy, but will give voters a sense of origin for participation in the "election revolution", which is simply a critically crucial condition for today's massive mobilisation. The civilian performance of fewer people today, on the eve of the fight for everything that needs to be won, and the concern for democratic elegance seems far besides incomprehensible to the seriousness of the challenge. But the common list chosen present is becoming more crucial than ever. He answers questions, what if there is no election. Or they will be so manipulated that they will should be effectively undermined.
The primaries are needed to appoint representatives and leadership with an undisputed mandate. Capable of taking up and resisting erstwhile he becomes necessary, alternatively of being able to unbreak his hands helplessly again, losing another vote. The black scenarios of the written assassination, which come to our heads erstwhile we perceive to comments about lex Tusk, necessarily require the existence of specified a strong legitimacy of opposition leadership, so that it can become a credible alternate to power. I'm afraid we might request that. Representation with a strong and credible mandate besides without elections. These scenarios cannot be ruled out, they must be considered and prepared for.
Millions of labour hours
We have heard about the primaries, and we inactive hear that this cannot be done, even if we wanted to. That's not true. In particular, it is impossible present to give yourself a chance of triumph if you do not believe in the anticipation of campaigning in all municipality and reaching all village. In order not to get into boring details here, I urge alternatively further thought experiments after Waldemar Pawlak deprived of the right of the Law and Justice to run, which in itself would deprive us of our chances of triumph if we did not change our way of thinking.
So let's imagine first that on June 4th there will be a million of us in Warsaw. I'm not that optimistic, though I think we might be about that. It's just an exercise of imagination. Let us besides presume that each of us will devote an average of 8 hours to this – since a large part will gotta get back and distant frequently from distant places in Poland. So that gives 8 million man-hours. So a million labour days. Let's divided it into a squad of a 1000 people working. It's a 1000 days of work for a squad like this. Including days off work – over 3 years. There are 4 months until the election, so about 10 times less. The million labour days are so 4 months of work for 10,000 people! Of course, it is impossible to translate time demonstrating people for 1 day into a multimonth, regular work. But 1 can think of what kind of mobilization we truly request erstwhile we see on Sunday how large the request and the anticipation of mobilization is in us. We have 300 districts in Poland. Although we are not yet able to scope a group of tens of thousands of election observers, a squad of respective thousands of people is able to cover all borough in each county. Twice – to carry out primaries and a truly effective campaign.
Another imagination exercise. Rafal Trzaskowski voted us in about 10 million. As we know, it was not adequate and we should know that it is not adequate again – especially if the parties issue respective letters and divide our votes among them. But the $10 million are real. And it's mobilizing again. Let's presume that all tenth of these people are determined adequate not to boycott e.g. Orlen, which was urged after Obietek took over the Polish Presse, but to contribute a litre of petrol to the citizen media fund supporting the run all month. 6.5 million a period is something. All they gotta do is pay those who come to the march on Sunday and do it regularly these fewer months. That's adequate for a refund. Or the media in the campaign. Right?
In Tuska hands
Accelerated by Kaczyński's actions, polarization has been taking place in Poland for a long time and will only accelerate as the run progresses. Cross-party games on the opposition side, supported by lex Tusk, have led to absolute dominance here: it is only Donald Tusk that brings attention today. I'm not going to live – that's the facts and you've seen them for a long time. No script on the opposition side has a chance of being realized unless Tusk calls him. I'm convinced that Kaczyński's ophthalmologists gave Tusk a deadly weapon for himself. With a small courage, there is no script in which the Bolshevik bill will not become a nail to the PiS coffin on the 1 hand, and a cornerstone of the winning social movement on the other. In spite of everything, I believe that in these dreary times, this is an highly happy occasion. However, the condition for its usage is not organization thinking, but social thinking.
