"Leader vacuum". Analyst on the reasons for weakening the drive for further EU integration

Political instability in France and Germany threatens the plans for closer integration of the European Union. The European leadership vacuum is presently being filled by European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Tusk, who will take over the EU's rotating presidency from Victor Orban in January 2025," comments Matthias Mathijs, elder Analyst of the Council on abroad Relations, who fears to accomplish global global policy objectives.

The author suggests that Macron's weakened position and the deficiency of a strong German Chancellor – Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government has just broken up and the early elections will take place in February 2025 – makes Europe without strong leadership. It is essential that von der Leyen and Tusk fulfil this role.

The head of the EC has just signed a free trade agreement between the EU and the South American Mercosur trading block, whose negotiations lasted twenty-five years and which needs ratification. Von der Leyen will play a key function in trade negotiations with America after the oath of Donald Trump on 20 January 2025. The German will besides decide to coordinate defence spending in Europe. Steps towards closer integration are besides ongoing.

However, experience shows that "no advancement has been made in European integration since planet War II without strong and clear support from both France and Germany." In the face of the "lack of national leadership in Paris and Berlin, another leaders, specified as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni or Viktor Orbán in Hungary, could be tempted to negociate straight with Trump, which could fuel the increasing division in the EU", fears the CfR analyst, who points out that "the EU must talk with 1 voice". There is no place for a “cacophonic performance of various national leaders fighting for influence” due to the fact that this could undermine the European bloc.

Mathijs analyses the political situation in France. It points out that the collapse of the French government and political uncertainty in Germany have increased the force on president Emmanuel Macron in a situation of increasing tensions in Europe on migration, the war on Ukraine and energy policy.

"After the crushing defeat of the centre movement Ensemble ("Together") in the European Parliament elections in June 2024, French president Emmanuel Macron decided to announce early parliamentary elections to effort to stabilise the national political situation. However, Macron's hazard that French citizens would reward him with a fresh majority and a fresh mandate did not bring the consequence and ended with a "impasse" of the National Assembly divided between 3 about equal and politically incompatible factions," we read.

Macron appointed centre-right Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, but he was incapable to bring about a fast adoption of the austerity budget in order to reduce France's rising fiscal deficit. After failing to vote on the budget, Macron appointed a fresh head of government on 13 December, “one of his first political allies, a seventy-three-year-old centrist François Bayrou”. However, he may not meet the task he faces, since he must face the same parliamentary deadlock and expanding polarity in the country.

The issues that divide the French elite and society in general are akin to those in America and another countries in Europe and in the world. It is about rising maintenance costs, deteriorating state of public services, migration, instability in Ukraine and the mediate East.

Macron has been implementing reforms since 2017 to improve the pension strategy and accelerate EU integration in defence and energy.

Both the far left and the far right want to shift improvement costs to wealthy people. They request that pension improvement be withdrawn, including a simplification in the retirement age to sixty years. They are besides more Eurosceptic erstwhile it comes to transferring more areas for management in Brussels.

The Marine Le Pen organization wants to introduce more drastic measures against immigration and slow down the energy transition. He's skeptical about getting Paris active in abroad interventions. The Left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Olivier Faure would like to keep generous social safety while pursuing ambitious climate objectives.

There is simply a fiscal deficit to stabilise, which is 6.1 percent of gross home product (GDP). This would require spending cuts and taxation increases. France's current public spending has reached a record-high level of 58.3 percent of GDP, while taxation collection is about 52.2 percent. In the current situation, it is hard to scope an agreement between the parties.

The CfR analyst wonders whether "a sovereign debt situation can pose a hazard of wider EU infection?" Paris – due to the reduced rating of Moody’s agency from Aa2 to Aa3 – must pay more for the issue of fresh debt. The worrying situation is besides in Belgium, which is facing a advanced deficit and inactive no government. Italians besides have advanced debt.

The analyst hopes that, even in the event of a chaotic interior situation, Macron, as a president with broad powers to conduct abroad policy, will take advantage of his prerogatives to lead the pursuit of closer EU integration and to prosecute global objectives.

He showed this, for example, by going to Poland, where he sought "support for the creation of a forty-thousandth European armed force capable of protecting the Russian-Ukrainian border in the event of a ceasefire". He besides played an "active diplomatic function in the stabilisation of the mediate East after the fall of erstwhile president Bashar al-Assad in Syria".

The problem is that he will gotta put more effort into receiving additional support for financing abroad initiatives. Each time he will gotta get approval of expenditure by a majority in the National Assembly. However, and this may not be adequate to effectively support the aspirations of the EC chief.

Source: cfr.org

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