As the presidential elections in Poland are approaching large steps, the EU political scene remains seemingly neutral. However, as the French diary reveals Le Mondebehind the scenes is simply a subtle but very real game. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, although he does not officially interfere with the national policy of any associate State, “he can do much to aid Tusk before the elections”.
This is not the first time EU leaders have supported political allies. This time the stake is high: the second circular of the presidential elections in Poland, scheduled for 1 June, can find the direction which the largest country of Central and east Europe will take – towards integration with the Union or towards weakening ties with Brussels.
An ally from the same family
Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Tusk have known each another for years and come from the same political household – the European People's organization (EPP). As it reminds me Le MondeMr Tusk von der Leyen, among another things, has succeeded in re-election for the position of Head of the European Commission. This trust and political proximity have become the foundation of informal cooperation.
"As the presidential election approached, von der Leyen became increasingly knowing of the migration pact," she notes. Le Monde.
The minute of a joint press conference in Gdańsk was symbolic. erstwhile Tusk publically declared that Poland would not implement the EU migration and asylum pact – even though it was to enter into force in 2026 and is binding – von der Leyen was silent.
"She preferred not to make a large deal out of it, knowing that Tusk would follow the rules after the election," commented the journal.
This behaviour has not escaped the attention of European diplomats. 1 of them, quoted anonymously, acknowledged: “On the Green Deal to bring climate neutrality to the EU by 2050, Tusk is now allowed to make statements that another leaders would not accept." Von der Leyen not only did not object, but deliberately pushed the publication of the study on the goal of reducing CO2 emissions – a study unfavourable to Poland – in time after the election.
Strategic silence of the Commission
Such restraint of the European Commission in delicate matters is not an accident, but – as pointed out Le Monde A thoughtful strategy. Supporting Tusk without open commitment, von der Leyen avoids interference charges, while minimising political hazard to the pro-European camp in Warsaw.
An example? The issue of trade regulation with Ukraine. Decisions on this substance were deliberately delayed by the Commission until after 5 June – after the second circular of elections. This is simply a politically risky subject in Poland, where farmers are increasingly protesting against Ukrainian competition. specified moves may seem technical, but in practice these are political top-level calculations.
Similar tactics apply to the EU trade agreement with Mercosur – the South American bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay). Polish farmers argue this agreement for fear of price competition. European Commission notes Le Monde"he is besides in no hurry to act".
Why does it all matter?
Presidential elections in Poland are more than just a local plebiscite. The President's office gives a real chance to block government action with veto. If Donald Tusk, after taking over the executive power in 2023, fails to "recover the Presidential Palace", his ambitious improvement plans, including the reconstruction of the regulation of law and integration with the EU, will be paralyzed.
Von der Leyen understands this well. Therefore, informally, but consistently, he tries not to throw Tusk a lock. As he comments Le Monde"von der Leyen behind the scenes can do a lot to aid Tusk before the election".
This pragmatism besides has a European dimension. Von der Leyen knows that Tusk's success is not only a substance of the future of Poland, but besides of the political puzzle of the full EU. Strong, pro-European Poland is an ally in climate negotiations, budget negotiations and besides in the fight against the increasing influence of the utmost right in another associate States.
The limits of loyalty?
However, there are no critical voices. any commentators point out that von der Leyen's tactics are balancing on the political line of ethics – should the European Commission "turn a blind eye" to any actions simply due to the fact that they favour a "appropriate" candidate?
On the another hand, it is hard to deny that this aid is not done in the form of direct support, but alternatively as a series of restrained decisions – sometimes simply delays – that destruct the hazard to the current government.
How He Writes Le Monde, von der Leyen “knows erstwhile not to say anything to harm”. It is simply a shadow policy – subtle but effective.
The Kuliss That Make Up the Future
At first glance, it may seem that the EU is full neutral in this campaign. However, careful reading of the Commission's actions shows a very different picture. It's a mastery of diplomacy and political tension management. In this game, all silence, all delayed report, all omission is simply a decision on a European chessboard.
