Lasecki: Housing policy of the fresh government

Housing and construction issues in Donald Tusk's fresh government were assigned to the Ministry of improvement and Technology (MRIT) headed by Krzysztof Hetman of PSL.

The deputy ministers in his hotel were Waldemar Sługowski from the Civic Coalition, Jacek Tomczak and Ignacy Niemczycki from Poland 2050 and Krzysztof Kukucki from the Left.

Krzysztof Hetman is simply a vice president of PSL, associate since 2023. From 2007 to 2010, he was Deputy Minister of Regional improvement in D. Tusk's first government. Until 2014, he held the post of marshal of Lublin Voivodeship and from 2014 he was a associate of the European Parliament, where he was, among others, Vice-President of the Committee on Regional improvement and the Committee on the interior Market. It is estimated that the fresh Minister of improvement and Technology has good relations in the home organization with both its younger generation activists president Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish and with older activists, being a crucial and influential figure in the PSL. It is besides estimated that in its organization it represents a liberal wing economically, as its priorities indicating deregulation and support for business. Meanwhile, to halt adverse demographic trends in Poland, it will be crucial to increase housing supply, including through the improvement of social housing. Institutions specified as the subject of MRiT will be liable for this.

The Disasters of Capitalistic Programs

Government housing programmes, focusing on expanding the purchasing capacity of the population, have failed completely. The “Family on His” programme implemented in 2007-2013 divided PLN 8 billion into 181.5 1000 preferential loans, of which 55% afraid the secondary market, without affecting the construction of fresh housing in any way. The Youth Housing Programme, which was implemented in 2014-2018, provided for interest rates on loans depending on the number of children, in fact supporting bank lending mainly.

In many cases, beneficiaries with a creditworthiness without government aid benefited from preferences. More than 70% of the aid besides went to the childless (!). Both programmes cost PLN 11 billion in total. On the another hand, under the PiS programme "Location Plus", 100 1000 fresh apartments were planned to be built by 2020, while by 2023 they were only put into service a small over 19 thousand, of which the State Real property Fund (PFR) built only 3.5 1000 apartments. According to various estimates, the housing deficit is inactive to be between 600,000 and 4 million and 36.9% of the population live in overcrowded housing.

Warming up liberal chops

The coalition agreement of the KO, the 3rd Road and the Left dated 10 November 2023 included a evidence of creating conditions for a crucial increase in the rate of giving fresh housing. The state is to support local governments in the restoration of voids, which assumes reaching into the existing resource. In addition, the proposals of the fresh government seem to meet mainly the expectations of the improvement lobby: housing is to be transferred to the areas of the State Treasury companies, post-offices, post-industrial areas and 835 ha as a resource of the National Property Resource for the purposes of the Housing Plus programme. The Polish Association of Developer Companies welcomes these projects, mainly coming from the KO programme. Concepts increasing in the expert base of the current government are neoliberal and are transplants from the US. It is proposed, among another things, to introduce regulations enabling the creation of Real property Rental marketplace Companies (SRWN) operating on the stock exchange as investment funds, to attract corporate capital to construction investments. This instrument is most widespread in the US, where it is called Real property Investment Trust (REIT).

D. Tusk's another ideas are typically ad hoc. For example, the fresh government wants to relieve about 150 1000 housing units presently rented by around 450 1000 students, through the improvement of a network of dormitories in large cities ("akademik for a buck" promised in the 3rd Road campaign), which would cost PLN 70-85 billion. There have besides been vague announcements of changes to the rental regulations to defend tenants and tenants at the same time, which seems internally contradictory.

Programme rejection of amendments

Meanwhile, the maintenance of the current PIS strategy of a 2% interest-bearing debt requires government to increase its budget, as it is moving out of money for the years 2023-2024. At the same time, KO promised to reduce the debt interest rate to 0% in the campaign. PSL is besides a supporter of low-interest loans. The coalition agreement does not address this issue. The position of the Left appears to be the most reasonable, arguing that subsidies increase housing prices and benefit mainly banking and improvement sectors. Also, the Left's next programming postulate – the construction by 2029 of 300 1000 housing units for inexpensive rental and usage for housing 1% of GDP – failed to push through in coalition talks, so the organization decided not to enter the government of D. Tusk. The government so remains to find the backing of social housing from 2024 in the expression of Social Construction Society/Social Housing Initiatives, where there are more than adequate resources to participate.

The challenge for the fresh government will besides be to extend the CO2 emissions trading strategy to housing (ETS2) from 1 January 2027, which will introduce a climate taxation of EUR 45 per tonne of CO2 for coal, gas or wood-heated houses and apartments. The main problem is 1.7 million single-family buildings, the cost of improving energy efficiency, which is expected to scope hundreds of billions of PLN. So far, the Government of D. Tusk has not presented any announcements as to how it intends to deal with this challenge.

However, in line with the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), which is part of the "Fit for 55" package as part of the European Commission's European Green Deal adopted in December 2019, from 2028 all fresh buildings are to be built as zero-emission buildings and, as of 2030, mandatory climate renovations of 15% of buildings are to begin. By 2035 (or with the approval of the European Commission by 2040) all fossil fuel boilers are to be withdrawn. By 2050, all buildings are to become carbon-free, as part of the European Union's climate neutrality by then.

Non-capitalist construction

The chances of an effective housing policy being developed by the central government are fundamentally zero. In addition to the agreement at the minimum level, i.e. the continuation of TBS/SIM financing, as the PiS government did, and the cosmetic adjustments on the secondary marketplace (withdrawal from the student market, amendments to the rental rights), the ideas of the KO and the 3rd Way do not go beyond the logic of capitalism, assuming increased purchasing capacity in relation to housing created by market-based businesses. However, the experience of housing policy so far shows that the usage of specified prescriptions is mainly based on business itself and lending banks’ demand.

Much more reasonable would be advocated by Lewica, and within its framework especially by Together, construction of inexpensive rental apartments. specified solutions have been successfully applied in the Polish People's Republic, dealing with successive waves of post-war demographic surpluses ("baby boom") and equally increased migration to cities, especially since the 1960s. akin successes were not achieved after 1989 by neoliberal programmes aimed at involving the private sector.

Organisation

Another aspect of the problem is the empowerment of provinces and the stopping of civilizational centralization in major metropolises. Especially in the context of the information and service and trade economy and the improvement of communication technologies, it is possible to push the civilizational decentralisation and improvement of villages and tiny and medium-sized cities, in place of concentration, centralisation and cartelisation, to which empirically evident capitalism has led itself. 1 of the more apparent aspects of this challenge is, for example, educational decentralisation in the form of a slimming of large cities of higher education, producing many unprepared for the work of ignorant people, to support local centres and the specificity of local economical structures of vocational education.

At least with respect to the first, it is crucial to be aware that the fixed-term solutions, thus applying to the omission of marketplace logic, will temporarily incur financial losses, i.e. they will be unprofitable in the market. However, the marketplace is governed by short-term logic (the logic of ad hoc profits), while the state strategy operates over decades. Demographic processes are besides of a long word nature.

A long-term strategy is so needed to address the demographic challenge. Without expanding the supply of housing and stopping the civilization and population centralization of Poland in the 5 largest cities (Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań), it will not be possible to reverse the negative demographic trend. However, a country issuing evidence amounts in Europe for arms and financing the war between Ukraine and Russia could afford even a costly and ad hoc housing policy. It is clear that specified a civilizational “turnover” is beyond the political and intellectual-ideal horizon, not only of the current ruling coalition but besides of the regime's pseudo-opposition in the form of the PiS and the Confederacy. In the meantime, Poland needs a profound change, so the political revolution – the Anti-liberal Transition.

Ronald Lasecki

Think Poland, No. 3-4 (14-21.01.2024)