The passing year prompts questions that come back all 12 months, but this time they sound highly strong: who won and who lost politically in 2025? And what we can anticipate in 2026 – not only in Poland but besides in the world, due to the fact that global events are more crucial to us present than always before.
Krzysztof Ziemec
Whether anyone likes it or not, 2025 in global politics belonged to Donald Trump, and in national politics belonged to Karol Nawrocki. They have defined the rules of play on their political fields, and they will be the ones who will give the speech to the coming months.
Donald Trump has indeed already shown the direction of planet politics. It enters an era in which the real force, alternatively than the declared values, counts. The question is, was it always different? possibly the difference was that cynicism had previously been covered with the tongue of ideas. There's no request to pretend today. Even if the planet resists it, complains, it will inactive gotta learn to play according to this tune.
Furniture
What is the situation in Poland? The election of Karol Nawrocki – in my opinion psychologically hard to imagine without Trump's triumph behind the ocean and many statements of people from his surroundings – opened a fresh political axis of dispute. In a sense, he besides redesigned the national political scene.
For respective months now, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has no longer led the main fight against Jarosław Kaczyński and PiS itself, which, as it turns out, inactive effectively scares "little children" in public debate. Today, Nawrocki became his real opponent: a young, dynamic and determined politician. Interestingly, this confrontation paradoxically adds fresh brilliance, energy and meaning to Tusk – despite the age that can be a ruthless argument in politics.
This is where the consolidation of the ruling camp and the increase in the Citizen Coalition's quotations comes from. Those who do not accept everything that is right-wing or conservative have gained a new, convenient mark of criticism, a fresh "bag to beat".
Nawrocki's election besides introduced fresh dynamics to right-wing environments – he dared any extremist politicians and their supporters, including those specified as Grzegorz Braun. Moreover, polls show that 25 percent of Poles already support the demands of Poland to leave the European Union, which shows the increasing importance of these currents.
Karol Nawrocki – for a “boxer” – is walking like a storm. He does not take prisoners, and so far he has not had a serious political or communication failure, which is of large importance in politics. Of course, opponents will always find a pretext for criticism, drawing veto and insignificant slips – although in fact they are much little many than the laws signed by him. As we know, communicative frequently counts more than facts in politics.
The year 2025 was besides a year of politicians specified as Donald Tusk, Mateusz Morawiecki, Włodzimierz Czarzasty, and any courageously besides point to Simon Holovnia. Donald Tusk stands out for his incredible ability to “rebirth”. He showed this already after returning to the country from Brussels in 2021 and later in early autumn, erstwhile after the losing presidential election of Rafał Trzaskowski and a short period of uncertainty, his strategy allowed the Civic Platform to regain energy and position in political rivalry.
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The year 2026 so promises to be a time of intense political play: fresh alliances, disputes and tests for both young leaders and experienced national phase players.
Donald Tusk skillfully defined his fresh opponent, consolidated his own facilities, absorbing the alleged "appetizers", and changed the communicative from a previously liberal to a more national one. It is hard to believe that the same politician who utilized to mock the thought of repolonization of the economy present speaks openly about it – utilizing precisely the same arguments that were previously the domain of PiS. And that's what benefits him.
Waiting to improve the quality of life
Increased support for the Citizens' Coalition shows that the government's ratings are weakening. 2 years after the election, it turned out that even for opponents of the Law and Justice, conventional "cleanses", settlements or promises were not sufficient. Citizens, including commentators and journalists who are so far in favour of the government, anticipate to improve the quality of life – especially in the wellness service, which is inactive not optimistic.
Poles want fresh narratives, fresh national and infrastructure projects. They want to yet see the Central Communication Port or the first atomic power plant. Their aspirations are different present than they were 10 years ago – and the rulers did not always realize that.
Young Poles anticipate first of all good, unchangeable work. They besides dream about their own apartment, but they know that without work it is impossible. Today, getting an flat without knowing or supporting, as before, inactive remains a immense challenge.
The celebrated slogan “we do, we don’t talk” became a meme among young people, but in the case of Donald Tusk it doesn’t hurt him at all. The blame in politics falls on the backdrop – an old, tried-out method according to which the fighters are liable and the “car” itself remains untouchable. Similarly, until recently, this was in the PiS, although in this organization the mechanics has ceased to function fully.
Winners and losers
Therefore, among the winners of 2025 I placed not Jarosław Kaczyński, but a politician who puts on the foreground – Mateusz Morawiecki. Kaczyński has been deliberately moving to the background. Morawiecki, on the another hand, understood the causes of the failure of PiS in 2023, drew conclusions, counted his facilities and had a clear action plan. He can “bite grass” – which is just as crucial in politics as in sports – and shows both the thought and the courage to face opponents, both on the Platform and in his own ranks. Will he be able to be independent? It'll show you time.
Another winner of 2025, I believe, is Vladimir Czarzasty. He went through a real “reanimation” as a leftist politician, calmly taking the marshal's seat on Simon Holownia. He returned to the tops of power as a leading figure in the state, and his main opponent is no longer Kaczyński, but Karol Nawrocki. Czarzasty fights mainly for himself, but at the same time paves the way for the fresh left to enter the Sejm in the coming parliamentary elections – which was not so obvious, given that in 2015 the left did not enter the Sejm.
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Simon Holowna is besides not to be overlooked. Although any observers may consider it a losing policy in 2025, I think otherwise. possibly he must temporarily go into the shadow of political Olympus, due to the fact that on the national phase the space for specified people is limited. However, it is worth remembering and appreciate for 2 things. Firstly, he did not give in to the force of his environment and allowed the fresh president to swear, which many politicians of the government option inactive cannot forgive him. Secondly, in April he did not let TVP to violate good morals and regulations while maintaining professionalism and standards that are frequently ignored in politics.
The year 2025 thus showed that the political scene in Poland is shaped by both experienced players and young leaders, and winners are those who can combine courage, cunning and consistency in action.
It is worth recalling that in the presidential run of 2025 a situation happened without precedent – Szymon Holovnia forced the debate only between Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski before the first circular of elections. Never before in past has anyone on state tv chosen 2 politicians to debate and thus enter the centre. The holovnia did this in part in its own interest, due to the fact that it ran itself in elections, but above all it showed the function the state tv took at the time.
The run was brutal and manipulative. any media were utilized in a legally questionable way. State media besides played a controversial function at the time – as Rafał Trzaskowski commented openly in the interview. However, there were no consequences in this case. This is simply a informing for policy observers – akin mechanisms can be repeated in future elections.
At the same time, Krzysztof Stanowski and his channel played their role. Although he himself participated in the campaign, his platform became the site of presidential debates, which in fact were more substantive than those on TVP. There were real confrontations of candidates, which importantly affected the media scenery of the campaign.
The presidential run of 2025 besides created fresh political players. Grzegorz Braun entered the lead, who, late leaving the Confederacy, amazed not only the PiS but besides the Confederacy itself. Braun shortly became an crucial point in the political scene, bringing the component of unpredictability and fresh dynamics to the public debate.
Grzegorz Braun will shortly attract media attention and may shortly become an crucial player deciding with whom the government's future coalition will be formed – in a sense like the Polish People's organization did for years. However, there is 1 condition: Braun must build structures and prepare electoral lists. For now, his organization is actually "one Braun", and that is not adequate to compete in the elections.
Nevertheless, its importance will grow, to the horror of liberal voters and commentators. They inactive do not realize that their own actions – the fight against the "darkgrod", the Church, the "Russian onus" or the excessive commitment to the criticism of the Union, including the attempts to delegalise Braun's organization – only strengthen his position. They do not see that in Poland there is an incorruptible independent mentality of voters, with which Braun can play effectively, regardless of external attempts to limit its influence.
Grzegorz Braun's success is simply a serious challenge and possible threat to the Law and Justice. This is 1 of the reasons why Jarosław Kaczyński's organization has been struggling late – for years it effectively controlled the right flank of the political scene, but Braun's appearance can change that.
Jarosław Kaczyński for years effectively cared for maintaining the unity of the Law and Justice, but time does its job. many factions appear more and more clearly in the party, which aspire to take over the schema after the “founder's father”. So far neither Kaczyński went on to political retirement to Sulejówka, nor the PiS fell apart. Individual factions are besides smart to go their own way now – in politics, in addition to the percentages of support, it besides counts for "The End", that is, strategical winnings that reward large groups, and smaller ones effectively marginalise.
This explains, among others, the increasing function of Grzegorz Braun, whose Civic Platform does not hide that he is using. Right-wing groups are scattered today: we can talk about three, and shortly possibly even 4 major parties, while on the liberal side there is practically 1 strong formation of the Civic Coalition. However, her actions inactive indirectly support the Law and Justice, as the division of the right maintains the predictability of the political scene.
If there is simply a division in the Law and Justice or a fresh organization of Mateusz Morawiecki does not exceed the voting threshold of 5 percent, the consequence will be the "turbo-charge" Platform, akin to that which gave the Law and Justice independent power in 2015. In specified a situation, the road to Donald Tusk's next word can be opened. In short: if a large regroup occurs on the right side of the political scene and any groups do not enter the Sejm, Tusk gains a crucial advantage and can number on another strong term.
What are they doing?! The biggest political failures of the year 2025!
What will 2026 bring?
You'd gotta have a glass bullet to answer that question exactly, but a fewer can bet now. It seems that there will be no earlier elections or the dissolution of the ruling coalition, despite the friction within and uncertain future of the organization Simon Holownia. The reason is simple – power binds power in itself, and its failure would simply be unprofitable. Similarly, PiS should not break up soon, although political emotions can introduce unpredictable turbulence at any time.
It is not possible to exclude the creation of the alleged "third road" – a large organization of the Centre under the umbrella of Mateusz Morawiecki, which could attract splitters from the Law and politicians from Poland 2050 who will not find a place in the KO or PSL. For now specified a creation seems a distant prospect, but in politics anything is possible.
Grzegorz Braun will proceed to service as a political "graszka" – attracting attention, sparking media discussions and integrating his own electorate. Its popularity will grow, and the Confederacy will not lose its position, although young voters and antipathy of part of the media can change its dynamics.
The year 2026 will besides bring economical challenges: an increasingly empty budget, wellness problems and rising energy costs. The introduction of ETS 2 or the continuation of the EU's "green transition" policy could make additional difficulties for businesses and households, which can naturally shift social sentiments in the right direction.
The popularity of Eurosceptic demands, including those voiced by Braun, will increase in proportion to Brussels' efforts to further centralise the Union. Poland, as a smaller country, may feel limited sovereignty, especially in the face of the inactive hard geopolitical situation – the war in Ukraine, the increasing position of China and the unpredictable US policy, especially Donald Trump towards Europe.
In conclusion, 2026 may not bring dramatic changes on the national phase in terms of elections, but it will be an interesting and full of political tensions and economical challenges. There will surely be no shortage of topics for discussion and comments, both at home and abroad.
