Who will replace Madame Euro?

Christine Lagarde (70) It has been head of the European Central Bank (ECB ) since 2019 , and its word of office is expected to last until the end of October 2027 . However, early departure seems now likely. According to reports, “Financial Times” Lagarde is going to step back before the deadline – thus releasing 1 of the most influential positions in economical policy in the euro area. The ECB stated that Lagarde had "not yet taken a decision on the termination of its word of office". It's hard to accept as a denial. After akin rumors from June last year, Lagarde herself declared that she was “determinate to finish her word of office”.

Le Pen should have nothing to say about the ECB presidency

The French resignation would most likely have a political background: presidential elections in France scheduled for April 2027 . According to current polls, it can no longer be ruled out that the country's power will include the utmost right-wing National Assembly (Rassemblement National) Marine Le Pen (57). president of France Emmanuel Macron (48) and Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz (70) could so find a successor as president of the ECB before the key elections. president of the French Central Bank, François Villeroy de Galhau (66), he had already announced last week that he would resign at the beginning of June in order to enable the appointment of a fresh head of the ECB to take place earlier.

As in 2019, the appointment of the fresh head of the ECB will most likely be part of a broader agreement between governments. Chancellor Angela Merkel (71) and Macron then agreed on 2 key personnel decisions. Ursula von der Leyen (67) , besides the German woman, became the president of the European Commission and IMF head Christine Lagarde joined the ECB in Frankfurt.

The ECB is preparing a series of fresh appointments: the word of office of Deputy Lagarde, Luisa de Guindos (66, Spain) ends in May of this year and the word of office of the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane (56, Ireland) ends at the end of May 2027. The contract of a German associate of the Executive Board of the ECB, Isabel Schnabel (54), ends in December 2027, shortly after the authoritative end of the Lagarde term. The highest position in the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), presently headed by Germany Verena Ross (57) , is presently unoccupied.

Candidates to succeed

From a German position Isabel Schnabel (54) and the president of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel (59) are considered promising candidates to win Lagarde. prof. Schnabel of Economics is considered a close advisor to Lagarde. In the autumn of last year, Nagel spoke with a reserve on his possible ambition to take the highest position: “In principle, each associate of the Governing Council of the ECB should have the competence to take the highest position in the Eurosystem. External candidates with different profiles besides have a chance," he told the paper "SPIEGEL" last November. However, at the Munich safety Conference, he amazed participants with a clear appeal for Eurobonds, a common European debt. The Bundesbank consistently rejected the Eurobonds that France had long demanded.

The Schnabel contract as a associate of the Executive Board of the ECB expires in October 2027; after 1 word of office, it cannot usually be extended. However, she could stay in the ECB as President. As a result, various media outlets have late listed her as a possible successor to Lagarde. Her position in monetary policy is comparatively restrictive: Schnabel consistently stresses the precedence of price stableness and warns against premature interest rate reductions.

However, sources in the ECB indicate that Germany's candidacy is unlikely, at least until von der Leyen remains president of the European Commission. She was late mentioned as a possible successor to the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier (70) whose word of office besides ends in 2027. If her successor isn't there German, the staff situation at the ECB may become interesting again.

Until then, however, the president of the Dutch central bank is considered to be the favourite for the position Klaasa Knota (58) and Director-General of the Bank of global Settlements (BIS) Pablo Hernández de Cosa (55) of Spain. The wick comes from a "hard" monetary policy camp in Northern Europe and advocates a price stability-oriented approach. Hernández de Cos is seen as a technocrat, seeking a consensus on stableness advocate. Unlike conventional monetary policy in South Europe, which focuses on favourable financing conditions and is more open to lower interest rates, Hernández puts emphasis on combating inflation. As erstwhile president of the Bank of Spain, de Cos enjoys large credit in the central banking circles.

Among the French considered successor to Lagarde are the erstwhile OECD chief economist Laurence Boone (56) and erstwhile economical advisor to Macron and prof. Hélène Rey (55).

Lagarde plans

Lagarde could besides make the exact date of its departure dependent on the "digital euro" action plan. The president of the ECB has always supported this task with large commitment. interior preparations at the ECB are almost complete, and political decisions on the introduction of digital central bank money are expected in 2026. With this historical legacy, the president of the ECB could then step down earlier.

As far as Lagarde goes, it's not clear at the moment. Last year founder of the planet economical Forum (WEF) The Secretary-General (87) he informed rumours that she was considering taking the lead in the WEF in early 2027. In Davos, however, Larry Fink (73) took the helm – although officially only temporarily. Lagarde's return to politics was besides mentioned, and any even consider her candidacy for president of France. Given her 70-year-old age, it would besides be possible to retire, although she never straight stated that she was considering this possibility.