French Chronicles. Despite the increasing hybrid threat, France supports Ukraine. But how much longer?

A fewer months before the presidential election, French citizens powerfully feel the consequences of the war in the mediate East. Meanwhile, president Macron informs and warns against Russian hybrid threat, but keeps the line of unwavering support for Ukraine. However, after reaching the far right, the French support for Ukraine can shrink significantly. We urge the comment of our expert, Joanna Różycka-Thiriet.

On September 18, Emmanuel Macron accepted in his seat organization leaders present in parliament and presidential candidates to present to them the consequences of current global crises and threats associated with them. Interestingly, 2 highly noted candidates in the presidential polls – Marine Le Pen (extremely right-wing National Unity) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (extremely left-wing France Distorted) were not present.

France is presently experiencing advanced social tensions due to rising fuel prices. It revived the memory of mass protests of the alleged Yellow Kamizelek (Gilets jaunes) in 2018, which protested against, among others, the emergence in the taxation on petrol. So far, the government has not introduced any universal driver relief (which the Polish government introduced, for example, by limiting petrol prices at stations), due to the fact that the French budget cannot afford it. At a press conference after the gathering with the political leaders, Marcon pointed out the guilty fuel crisis: “This situation is entirely due to the wars and global situation. In particular, this is due to the closure of the Ormuz Strait and the consequences of the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, as the war in Ukraine has been ongoing for 4 years. As you know, France has not decided to fight this war. She wasn't involved. However, like many another countries, we feel the consequences of what it has caused."

Macron besides warned that the nature of Russian aggression and threats to Russia's Europe had changed. France is preparing for further hybrid attacks, attacks on critical infrastructure, drone attacks and cyber attacks. At the same time, the president of France assured us, "Our position is clear: support for Ukraine is more essential than ever, due to the fact that it is simply a condition for our safety and for returning to a just and lasting peace." He besides said, "The statements of Prime Minister Donald Tusk [warning Russian hybrid attacks] are reliable and supported by facts; it is the Prime Minister who has always shown responsibility, and I believe he draws reasonable conclusions from the events of the past weeks." "We are not intimidated due to the fact that we know that our safety is taking place in Ukraine present and tomorrow".

On 19 September, president of the Jordan Bardella National Unity and Marine Le Pen, organization candidate in the presidential election and likely their winner (so bodes the polls today), issued a firm announcement. "The question of France's diplomatic and strategical directions has a legitimate place in democratic debate, even more so in the presidential election. It must be able to relate in peculiar to the level of financial support granted Ukraine and the conditions for this support, as well as the inadequacy of initiatives to search for diplomatic dialog formats that can aid resolve the conflict. These discussions are justified. Pressures from abroad – no. We will never tolerate that the abroad power, in this case Russia, can hope to straight or indirectly dictate our country's policy by threatening, threatening, destabilising or intellectual pressure. (...) France’s abroad policy is decided in Paris, in a sovereign way, only in connection with the interests of the nation. It will not be defined in Moscow or in any another abroad capital."

The National Unity is inactive suspected of pro-Russian pulls. Given the past of the group and Marine Le Pen, these are not entirely unfounded concerns – the politician in the past expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin or claimed that the annexation of Crimea was not illegal. Now he is definitely denying his submission to Moscow. However, despite strong words against Russian interference, it all points to the fact that if Marine Le Pen becomes president of the country after the elections in April and May of next year, material support for Ukraine from France will be importantly cut off. On September 16, in a long interview with LCI television, the candidate stated that it was not possible to keep support on this scale, due to the disastrous budgetary situation of the country: “This is not an act of hostility towards Ukraine. We can inactive train their soldiers, their armies, we can inactive give them equipment to defend themselves. But financially, we can't do any more. We can't do any more."

By the way, Marine Le Pen and its group besides resent the French contribution to the European Union budget (France is simply a net contributor, but benefits a lot from the common agricultural policy). Given that the EU is presently negotiating the multiannual financial perspectives for the period 2028-2034, the change in the seat of president V of the Republic could have immediate consequences for the EU.

Indeed, the budgetary situation of France is very difficult. On September 17, economical Minister Roland Lescure said: “We are aiming at a budget deficit below 5.5%. We are doing everything we can to have 5.4%." The draft budget for 2027, which the government is presently working on, is expected to have a deficit of 5% of GDP. The government is urgently seeking savings. The taboos even stopped being saved in retirement.

The gap in the national budget is simply a comfortable fig leaf for the National Unity, which in words supports Ukraine, but in practice not necessarily. For example, in February 2026, members of the organization voted against a EUR 90 billion debt to Ukraine, without which the country would have nothing to operate and wage war. And on 16 September this year they were against the European Parliament resolution on the hybrid war, which explicitly states that "Russia, acting straight or through many supporters specified as Belarus, is the most serious state entity posing a hybrid threat and attacking the EU and its associate States".

During this interview for LCI, the politician besides recalled that she advocated a peace conference on Ukraine (with Polish participation), and France (following its tradition of equal distance from powers) should make conditions for negotiations. There's no telling what a peace conference would give. possibly Marine Le Pen, who has never held advanced state positions, and with Putin had contacts on a friendly foot, inactive retained the remnants of pro-Russian sympathy and it is hoped that peace can be arranged at a low cost of coffee and cookies at a peace conference, without worrying citizens and greater commitment. possibly she's hoping she's the 1 who can end a conflict that others haven't.

Joanna Różycka-Thiriet

Expert at Schuman Foundation