The escalation of the conflict in Greenland was the dominant subject of the weekend. The central question was: How do you react? After the president of the United States Donald Trump (79) announced on Saturday criminal duties, Germany and the 7 another countries afraid initially rejected Trump's claim to the Arctic island of Greenland in Denmark on Sunday. "We are determined to defend our sovereignty," said Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Netherlands, NorwaySweden and United Kingdom in a joint statement. They express "full solidarity with the Kingdom of Denmark and the people of Greenland". They powerfully criticised Trump's threatening peculiar duties: "Terms of introducing customs undermine transatlantic relations and pose a hazard of escalation".
In the evening, representatives of EU associate States met at ambassador level at an extraordinary meeting. The EU summit is expected on Thursday.
In an unprecedented Trump decision announced the duties on Saturday via their social media. As of 1 February, an additional 10% work will be imposed on imports from Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, large Britain, the Netherlands and Finland. If these countries, all NATO allies, do not retreat from the US's plans to annex Greenland, the rate of work will emergence to 25% from 1 June.
What effect would specified criminal duties have?
Whereas Germany, according to the preliminary calculations of the Kilonian Institute of planet Economy, has a moderate, short-term decline in economical growth of 0.08 percent points, Norway is to evidence a decrease of 0.28 percent points. Economists from Berenberg Bank believe that this fresh uncertainty could cost Europe between 0.1 and 0.2 percent points of economical growth.
However, manufacture officials raised the alarm on Sunday. The announced duties one more time showed how unpredictable US trade policy has become, warned Volker Treier, manager of abroad Trade in the German Chamber of Commerce (DIHK) . "Almost 10% decrease in German exports to USA In 2025 it will so be only the beginning.” The German Automotive manufacture Association (VDA) talked about immense additional costs.
But the most devastating is the political message. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (70, CDU) warned against the failure of trust caused by Trump's threat. Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil (47, SPD) stated: “We must not be blackmailed by what is happening now.”
What possibilities do diplomacy offer?
Classic diplomatic protest methods include, for example, a coordinated call from US ambassadors to convey outrage to Washington. The joint declaration of 8 European countries was besides the first crucial diplomatic signal.
The answer will be coordinated. At the same time, the message signals the desire to proceed dialog with the United States: "By continuing the process launched last week, we are ready to launch a dialog based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity."
Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (49) It has already offered mediation. He has a comparatively good relation with Trump. Italy They were besides not active in the exploratory mission in Greenland. One anticipation may be the planet economical Forum in Davos. Trump is expected there on Wednesday, as is German Chancellor Merz.
Can the EU respond with retaliatory duties?
In spring, US president Trump announced the introduction of criminal duties in the EU. After painful negotiations, both sides reached an agreement last year. According to it, most European products will be subject to a 15% US duty. On the another hand, customs duties on American industrial goods are to be abolished and barriers to imports of certain food products are to be abolished. The European Parliament was to approve the agreement this week. Now it seems unlikely.
According to the EPP leader, Manfred Weber, The European Parliament has postponed the gathering indefinitely. The customs agreement is suspended for now.
The EU could besides impose fresh retaliation duties. However, EU Ambassadors were incapable to scope agreement on this at the gathering on Sunday evening. If a diplomatic agreement is not reached, the retaliation duties already announced in July, with a full value of EUR 93 billion, covering goods specified as American bourbon, aviation parts, soya and poultry, can automatically enter into force on 6 February, reported the EU diplomat Reuters.
Are there even sharper instruments?
It is considered likely that the EU will now endanger to usage a fresh instrument against commercial coercion: the alleged anti-force instrument (ACI). It is besides referred to as a "trade bar", as it gives the EU far-reaching and flexible capacity to respond to economical coercion. It allows retaliatory action against 3rd countries exerting economical force on EU associate States. According to the EU, deterrence is the main objective. This instrument is most effective erstwhile it does not should be used.
There is support for this instrument in the German industry. president of VDMA, Bertram Kawlath, "The European Commission should examine whether this instrument can be utilized against forced trade measures". The DIHK representative, Treier, expressed a akin view, but stressed that its application should be a "finality".
The French Government announced on Sunday that it would immediately request the mobilisation of this instrument. president of France Emmanuel Macron (48) he advocated its launch in the summer, during the first trade dispute with the United States. At the time, however, he failed to push his points. The German government initially opposed this and only later changed its position.
What another force on economical policy is possible?
First, we have an energy policy. In a trade agreement with the US, the EU has undertaken to acquisition $750 billion in energy products from the US over 3 years. They primarily included liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petroleum products and to a lesser degree atomic products. With the suspension of the trade agreement, the energy contract is besides threatened. This could exposure Trump to political force in the country.
On the another hand, we have regulations on technology. American technology companies make quite a few money in the EU. For example, 3 quarters of all listed companies in Europe usage software Microsoft and Google. Much of the non-cash payments in Europe are processed through US companies specified as Visa, Mastercard and PayPal. On the 1 hand, this creates dependence, but on the another hand it gives the EU an advantage.
The sensitivity of Trump's administration in this area was late demonstrated by an EU fine imposed on Google last autumn, which was immediately confronted with the threat of criminal duties. Through EU competition controls and technological regulations specified as the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act, the administration has effective rules to combat the abuse of technology companies. Moreover, the thought of an EU digital taxation could be restored.
Can Europeans endanger the closure of US military bases?
For decades there have been dozens of large American military bases in Europe that are of large importance for American operations around the world, for example in the mediate East. These bases store soldiers, weapons, ships, and aircraft; they service drones and supply medical care to injured people. In Germany, they include the United States Armed Forces Command (EUCOM) in Stuttgart and Ramstein Air Base in Rhineland-Palatinate, which serves as a hub for the US Air Force. The United States besides maintains another crucial bases in Italy and the UK.
If Europeans had decided to limit or ban the operation of these military bases as part of a protest against Trump's policy towards Greenland, the logistics of the American armed forces would have faced serious problems specified as replenishment of soldiers' stocks in another parts of the world. However, specified a solution is unrealistic due to the fact that soldiers and atomic weapons of the western welfare power, the US, stationed in Europe, are inactive considered an essential deterrent against external aggressors, despite the repeated criticism of NATO by Trump, especially since the Russian war in Ukraine.
Is NATO inactive capable of action?
So far, all parties have tried to avoid serious harm to NATO. Even Trump late made it clear that he did not intend to usage belonging to the alliance of the world's strongest military power as a tool of force against allies. He announced on his fact Social net platform: "We will always support NATO, even if it does not support us."
The basic rule of NATO is that it meets its main objective, as long as it effectively deters opponents specified as Russia, from carrying out a military attack on an alliance member. The Baltic States, in peculiar Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, see this as a kind of life insurance policy that must be maintained at all costs. Although European allies, Britain and France, are besides atomic powers, their arsenals are very limited and are not considered adequate to guarantee adequate deterrence for Europe as a whole.
Would a boycott of the FIFA planet Championships be possible?
Expert on CDU abroad policy, Jürgen Hardt, He made that idea. – in case of illegal annexation of Greenland by the USA.
On Saturday, Deutschlandfunk said that specified a "tab breach" would fundamentally change Europe's relation with the US. He can't imagine celebrating a happy football vacation in the United States this summertime under these circumstances. It would then be essential to examine "if we can participate in specified games." Trump needs to realize that things that he considers to be "expensive and important", specified as this year's planet Cup, would be threatened if he took specified steps. erstwhile asked, he said he had not spoken to Chancellor Merzem about this.
FIFA planet Championships are organized by FIFA and Germany will participate in them through the German Football Union (DFB). Relationships work mostly autonomously. Moreover, boycotts in sports are perceived very critically. akin considerations before the 2022 Qatar planet Championships, due to the situation of human rights in this country, led to many months of debate – but yet did not have any effect.
