The consequences of the deficiency of backing for the Baltic safety Initiative by the Trump administration

On September 5, citing an anonymous origin in the White House, the paper “Financial Times” reported that the budget proposal of Donald Trump's administration for fiscal year 2026 (1October 2025 – 30September 2026) does not include an extension of financing of the Baltic State defence capacity building initiative called Baltic safety Initiative(BSI). These reports were confirmed by the Estonian Ministry of Defence. BSI is simply a program created in 2020 under the United States Code: Title10, Section333. This section deals with the usage of budgetary resources for actions ensuring the training and arms of 3rd country armed forces. As part of the BSI from 2021 to 2020, the Baltic States received a full of over a billion dollars (see Annex). The money from this programme was mainly spent on training and exercises of the American and Baltic armed forces in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and on paying for the transfer of U.S. military weapons and equipment to their armed forces. The failure to extend BSI backing is intended to motivate European allies to increase their contribution to defence and deter NATO's east flank.

The conclusion of the initiative will not importantly affect the defence possible of the Baltic States, which in fresh years has importantly increased their defence budgets. However, they want to preserve the rotational presence of US forces in their territory. Hence, it is much more crucial for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and another east states of the NATO flank to keep the Trump administration's backing of the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) programme.

Comment

• Due to the importantly increased defence spending of the Baltic States, US BSI aid is no longer a major contribution to the defence budgets of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Between 2014 and 2020, Lithuanian military funds increased more than 8 times (from $428 million to $3.6 billion), Latvian – over 5 and a half times (from $293 million to $1.65 billion), and Estonian – 3 times (from $514 million to $1.5 billion). Thus, additional money under US aid is no longer as crucial as in erstwhile years, as the Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur explicitly acknowledged. However, the Baltic States will search alternate financial support in the US, talking to friendly forces in the American Congress. In fresh years, backing from BSI has most likely supported purchases of Javalin-led anti-tank missiles, HIMARS rocket launchers, and the implementation of a number of smaller Baltic orders in the American weapons industry. At the same time, the non-prolongation of BSI backing will have a negative impact primarily on the simplification of the scale, strength and frequency of military exercises conducted in the territory of these countries involving US forces.
• The BSI programme provided only part of US resources to strengthen the defence capabilities of the Baltic States and US military activity in their territory.The EDI initiative is crucial. It funds the enhanced presence of US forces in Europe, their exercises and training, retention of weapons and military equipment, infrastructure investments and strengthening the defence possible of allies. The EDI provides, among others, funds for the rotational presence of US land troops on the east flank, including in the Baltic States. backing for this program has been decreasing since the fiscal year 2019, erstwhile it reached $6.5 billion (see Annex). For fiscal year 2025, the proposed EDI budget is $2.91 billion. On this initiative, Air Force Bases (Shawle, Lielvārde, Ämari) and Infrastructure for peculiar Forces (Estonia) were upgraded in the Baltic States. Only the resignation of Trump's administration from continuing EDI would have a more serious impact on deterrence in Europe, including the Baltic States. The review of the budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 presented by the Department of Defence (War) does not specify the EDI items as in erstwhile years, but this does not mean the closure of the programme. backing from this initiative of individual infrastructure projects in Europe appears in respective hundred-page draft budget based on Trump's administration project. However, it is hard to find how much backing will be allocated to EDI in 2026. In addition to backing from BSI and EDI, the Baltic States besides usage American credits to acquisition weapons in the US under the abroad Military Financing procedure and grants from the global Military Training Programme (IMET).
• The Trump administration's proposal for the budget for fiscal year 2026 does not explicitly consequence in the completion of all the programmes in Section 333, including BSI (EDI is simply a separate case), and detailed decisions on the spending of funds on them will belong to the Department of Defence (War). In accordance with Section 333, the Secretary of defence (war) decides to usage money for programmes providing training and weapons to the armed forces of another states in agreement with the Secretary of State. The US legislature must be notified not later than 15 days before the launch of a circumstantial programme. The detailed allocation of funds is so hard to determine. They are straight managed by the defence safety Cooperation Agency (DSCA), whose budget for the fiscal year 2025 was $2.7 billion, of which little than 1.4 billion were foreseen for global safety programs (where funds for programs from section 333). According to a government proposal for fiscal year 2026, the DSCA budget is expected to be somewhat increased (by about $150 million), but the envelope for these programs is expected to be smaller by about $130 million. The proposal presented by the White home may be modified during the work in Congress. The bill approving the Pentagon budget is improbable to be voted on before the end of the current fiscal year (i.e. by the end of September), so a budgetary make-up must be passed.

ANNEX

Table. Budget of initiatives European Deterrence Initiative i Baltic safety Initiative ($ billion)