This text is written on May 2nd. In these hard times, a fewer days is simply a long time. Sometimes even very long. It's hard to tell what can happen in these 2 weeks? Let us exert ourselves, despite the dynamics observed, to a hint of speculation about the current position of Poland. Its policies, the effects it will most likely have.
Let us anchor our speculation on the most reliable foundation, that is, on the teachings, flowing from geopolitical premises. So what do we see? Poland, with its crucial location, with a certain territorial weight, but comparatively tiny population and average economical possible was not and will not be a completely sovereign state. Brezhnev's doctrine remains valid. but a fresh sovereign came after 1989. However, in the sense of knowing the destiny of the nation and its state, it did not change anything. We're inactive in the prefield. Comfortable to conflict in any distance from their own territories.
If we look at any investments in infrastructure in Poland, we will easy announcement that this is the destiny of the United States. In this belief, we must be strengthened, for years, by the increasing American military presence on the Oder and Vistula. 1 can even presume that everything was going in this direction from the beginning, towards the inevitable war on the western edge of the large Step. In this view, we can even go a fewer steps further; of this all knew, all those who hold the keys to the future of the world. Was it besides realized in Warsaw itself, it is hard to say clearly?
Is the function of Poland, our abroad policy so determined that in fact there is small that could be done to avoid all that has affected us, namely the destiny of a direct logistical backdrop for military activities in Ukraine, utilizing its human and state resources. However, this conclusion is besides far-reaching. For 1 thing, our executives are eager to do so. seemingly they were well selected in the process of building Polish political systems? Congratulations on your real local puppets! Against the background of the above-mentioned situation, 1 must leave the basic constitution: if the service of our authorities had not been so far advanced, there is simply a good chance that this war would not even have been or would have been more limited. The function of instigators is never interesting.
And whoever sows the wind collects the storm. He knows that and Russia, with which we are in fact at war. Despite this, the Kremlin retains far-reaching restraint and caution. But we don't know what his next plans are, what will end it? Furthermore, the absurdity of our strategical choice besides lies in the fact that all consequence of this conflict will be very unfavourable to us. Moscow with Ukraine will always manage. What about us? We are already becoming a game in the hands of the Kiev leadership. Still, there's inactive time for corrections.
It is adequate to even somewhat deviate from the destructive course and start with, for example, discreet support for Chinese peace initiatives. besides to re-establish closer relations with Hungary. The sinking of war propaganda, the conciliation gestures towards Belarus. Given what we see, it should be considered that these guidelines will not even be implemented. As usual, we go. Last but not least, our western neighbour, unlike us, is so “set” that all decision will bring political profits to Berlin.
Antoni Koniuszewski
photo public domain
Think Poland, No. 21-22 (21-28.05.2023)
