The end of Syria we knew

Krystian Kamiński.

Lenin stated that “there are decades erstwhile nothing happens and then there are weeks during which more is happening than in erstwhile decades.” He said this in mention to his transformative times of the real beginning of the 20th century. 12 days between 27 November and 8 December mark this very minute of acceleration of past in the mediate East.

The End of Baasism

The Syrian arabian Republic has fallen. Not only did 1 or another president and the elite around him fall down. The last Epigonic creation of the ideology of Baasism, a secular panarabian nationalism focused on the construction of centralised states according to the European model, fell. The Panamanian bassist ambition was abandoned in the 1960s, erstwhile it turned out that the common future could not build not only a fewer 100 million Arabs, but even Baas activists themselves, who broke apart into an Iraqi and Syrian faction, continued in common hostility.

The End of Syria as we have found

Lenin stated that “there are decades erstwhile nothing happens and then there are weeks during which more is happening than in erstwhile decades.” He said it in mention to his transformative times of the real beginning of the century... pic.twitter.com/UlCZxT4LL2

Al-Assad elder achieved success. Syria in practice had the last word in Lebanese politics, had its assets in Palestinian political life. His flexibility was measured by the fact that Syria joined the invasion of Iraq under the leadership of the US in 1991. His boy had to proceed his policy of keeping the state on the surface, which was constructed in the heat of conflict with Israel and his American protector, during the hegemonic minute of the latter.

It is easy present to mock Bashar al-Assad in the face of his fall. However, it should not be forgotten that he ruled for 24 years, during which he never held besides good a hand. Syria was a relic of expired ideology, a player alternatively lost in the process of a "cold war", and, above all, a country in territorial and population terms at most average on the scale of its region, lacking as large resources of natural resources as Iraq, Iran or the Gulf monarch.

Al-Assad elder played above his league. His boy must have dropped his tone, but he did it effectively. After 30 years, he withdrew Syrian troops from Lebanon in 2005, but did not lose influence on Lebanese politics. Accepting the real arrangement of Bashar al-Assad forces recognized Iran's leading function on its side, or the mediate East barricade. A corner of American occupiers in Iraq, but secretly adequate not to become a mark at a time erstwhile Washington's hegemony was about to end.

Hafyz al-Assad, the father of Bashar, whose fall we were just observing, took over the second and over all Syria, in order not to prosecute the pan-Rabic idea, but Pansyrian one. There was a historical paradox in this, due to the fact that Baas had previously been absolutely fighting the Syrian Social-Nationalist organization promoting pansyrianism. The Asads continued to spread Pan-Rabic slogans, in practice they pursued the SPSN ideology – the pan-Syrian ideology. The blade of this paradox is dulled by the fact that the spouse al-Asada Sr. and the parent of the junior – ANisa Mach-luf came from the household of SPSN activists. Bashar's comparative from his mother's side – Rami Machluf tried to support his oligarchical interests by conducting 1 of the tolerated on a larger or smaller margin of the SPSN faction. Until he and his organization ceased to be tolerated from 2019 to 2020.

Weight of sanctions

For 13 years, al-Assad remained at the helm of shrinking and then expanding domains, even though he resisted armed groups that rapidly became middlemen of the United States, large Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United arabian Emirates, Turkey. He besides experienced an unprecedented flash of the jihadist global jihadist in the form of the “Islamic State”.

At first he could only trust on Iran, Hezbollah and another Shiite paramilitary organizations of the region. Russia intervened for him only in autumn 2015. Al-Assad managed to get a comparative frost of the conflict in a reasonably beneficial territorial arrangement, keeping the vast majority of the densely populated, once-developed country belt with access to the sea. Oil deposits remained under American control in the state of Give erstwhile – Za-b. However, having them would make small difference to Syria. It was subject to very dense sanctions, which did not so much prevent it from rising from the rubble, which caused further collapse of the economy of the state and the material situation of its inhabitants. These sanctions did not dare cross the Sheiks of the Persian Gulf, even though they normalized political relations with al-Assad.

As a result, the state ceased to execute its basic functions, for which there was simply no money. People were starving, including soldiers. wellness services in the state almost stopped working. Hyperinflation. No decent shelter for a large part of society. Despite the diplomatic efforts of the president of Syria and his allies, there was no possible of turning things around. The largest sector of the real economy was the production of the drug – fenetiline, which only deepened the feudalisation of the state and army. The resources were no longer adequate even for the elite. In the fall of 2024 she besides turned against al-Assad.

On 27 November he was alone, only with his family. His brother Mahir, commander of the 4th Armoured Republican defender Brigade was the last to effort to defend his power.

System implosion

The Syrian army did not fight but retreated, leaving weapons behind. The only major clash of this “campaign” is the one-day conflict of Hama. Before and after, there was practically no 1 fighting. The finale featured information about direct orders to soldiers, including the Republican Guard, who, after all, always played the function of the system's praetorian to avoid fighting.

Nominated in September by al-Assad Prime Minister Muhammad Gchazi al-Jalali on Sunday morning, while militants of various authorment were chaoticly walking on the capital already, he was waiting for talks with upcoming Islamists.

The fall of al-Assad and the full Syrian arabian Republic strategy is not a question of the success of HTS (the “Lebanon Liberation Organization”) and another anti-government groups. It's not even a substance of abandoning the erstwhile president by allies. The first days, filled with Russian bombings of HTS groups and backdrops, or concentration on the border of Iraqi, Shiite hAsz-Sha-bi troops seems to propose that the second was not doomed. Al-Assad fell due to the fact that in Syria alone there were no social groups ready to defend his power. The strategy of this power fundamentally imploded, not broken.

I dare say that this attitude can affect the Syrian alawites, Christians, and fellow believers in the future. The fall of the Syrian arabian Republic is simply a success of the United States. You fall with the gene of anti-Americanism and anti-Zionism, although flexible in your politics. As I have already stated in earlier entries on my social platforms, the Caesar's bill pushed back in 2020 removed the carpet from al-Assad's feet. What failed Barack Obama and Donald Trump became the culmination of the word of scorned Joe Biden, and this is only 1 of his victories in the mediate East. The fall of al-Assad is the crash of the Iranian “Osie Resistance” against Israel.

Hamas was brought back to the rank of an underground organization. Hezbollah was decapitated, stripped of much of the staff, part of the surviving force, and utilized up rather a condition of the arsenal. Now the link between them and Iran has collapsed.

There is no case that HTS began its march shortly after the announcement of an unobserved truce in Lebanon, which confirmed the usage of Hezbollah's forces. Israel – the second winner in this situation immediately began bombing targets in Syria at an unprecedented level. He destroyed military installations and weapons remaining from the government army already calculating relations with future Syrian masters. More importantly, Israel's land troops occupied another Syrian territory, a militarized region belt patrolled so far by UN-UNDOF forces. I do not regulation out that Israeli forces will occupy further fragments of Syrian territory. Eventually, Golan Hills Israelis have occupied for half a century, made them unilateral annexation and colonization.

However, all of these victories of Israel would not have been possible without the very crucial material, political, diplomatic support of the US, which had completely missed the humanitarian rhetoric of president Biden, watching unwavering action in the Gaza Strip. Bashar al-Assad is not the only 1 with blood on his cuffs.

Losers

The Russian embassy in Damascus, unlike the Iranian embassy, was not attacked by militants. According to the first information, the attacks are besides not aimed at Russian bases and stations in Syria, which means that Moscow managed to join the agreement of various actors on Syria's political transition. Its component was most likely the departure of the overthrown president with his household to Moscow, where he received authoritative asylum. The fall of al-Assad is simply a failure of Russian politics, but not essential. The sense of its mediate east forpost and naval base in Tartus has become controversial when, as part of a large-scale war in Ukraine, the Russians were incapable to establish their full control in the Black Sea.

The collapse of the Syrian arabian Republic is, on the another hand, a major disaster for Iran, which has lost what it has won with a large amount of material resources, but besides the blood of members of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps and closest allies for the past 21 years. Iran itself is now becoming a mark for US-Israeli politics, which gives emergence to serious dilemmas for the elite of the muslim Republic, which is simply a thread for a separate comment.

I don't think there's any good waiting for the Syrians either. Al-Assad fell before the HTS and his chief Abu Muhammad al-Dzulani entered Damascus, or alternatively Ah-med asz-Sha-raa, due to the fact that he had just begun to usage his real name. In fact, Damascus was occupied by dormant militants from the area, headed to the capital by rebel troops from confederate Dara, the race took even troops protected for years by Americans from distant at-TaNf, located at the Jordan border.

A larger set of cloths in the state of Aleppo and Daża az-Zaur attempted to capture the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), or the armed force of the Kurdish parastate that settled in the north-east of the country. In Aleppo SDF, they had to subject the rear to the Turkey-proteased muslim National Army (SNA) troops. On Sunday, the Manbid fight began.

Over northern Syria is already delirious by the large offensive of Turkish intermediaries, and possibly straight by the Turkish army, which will rotation the power of Kurdish structures from the Turkish border in subsequent border areas around Kobani, possibly even the Hasaki region. Unofficial information says the Americans declared their protection over the Kurdish parastate only in the south, in the Dejr az-Za-ur region, the confederate part of Cancer. On the another hand, there are no specified strong messages against the belt at the Turkish border in the north. However, northern areas are the parent of the Kurdish population, in the south Kurdish political structures keep a power which is uncertain over the ever-favoured arabian tribes.

Sultan’s Success

Turkey is the 3rd win in the current situation. In view of Russia's withdrawal, the weakening of Iran and the deficiency of internationally recognised power in Damascus, the Turks are given a much wider field of action. Recep Erdogan from the beginning, since 2011 he has bet on the overthrow of al-Assad. At the end of last decade, he became besides the main protector and sponsor of Arab-Islamist armed groups. It was he who guaranteed, in agreement with Russia and Iran, the existence of their reserve in the part of the state of Idlib, from which he came out to the gras. From 2022 the Turks signaled readiness to normalize relations with al-Assad. I don't want to say if they were sincere signals or if from the beginning it was a game to confuse the Syrian president.

I anticipate the Turks to take action to grow their protectorate in the north of the country and to destruct the military possible of the SDF. The interests of Turkey will so collide with the influences and interests of Israel and the United States, which creates hope for Moscow, for which Turkey is drawn distant from the West. He's been a political precedence for years.

I find it hard to believe that the current situation will lead to the stabilisation of Syria. The characteristic feature of the arabian planet is that the fall of hierarchical power structures, the collapse of authoritative political structures, even if sustained by force, triggers a real cascade of particularism. Very frequently the only homeland is for Arabs then his tribe or clan.

As I mentioned at the outset, the collapse of the Syrian arabian Republic is the collapse of the ideology itself of Arab-Syrian secular nationalism, which is the ideological superstructure of this state. In fact, the last state to identify it. This ideology has been eroding for decades. Under the impression of the muslim Revolution in Iran or Hamas' career among Palestinians, many commentators erstwhile claimed that Islamism could become an ideology consolidating the state and the arabian world. From the position of the Syrian War, however, it seems that it is only an ideology polarising this world.

Whoever wants to believe in the perfect transformation of Chief Tah-reer Ash-Shaam. I believe that even if Ahmed asz-Sharaa had undergone a far-reaching spiritual transformation, the centrifugal force of particularism would trigger conflicts in which extremist Islamism would be politically useful and pressured radically by Sunni groups. Therefore, I fear that there will inactive be no peace in the fresh Syria, there will proceed to be bloodshed, and the most blood will be drawn from the weakest ethno-confessive minorities. I am afraid that Syrian Christians are waiting for what happened to Iraqis. There were over a million Christians surviving in Iraq under Saddam Hussein. 2 decades after his overthrow, there was just over 100,000 left.