Trump's Oil Confabulations

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Trump's Oil Confabulations

May 29, 2026 by Larry C. Johnson 130 comments

(The erstwhile image was made available by my friend “Cardiff”).

Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that the United States produces more oil than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined. He repeated this message repeatedly in 2026, frequently stressing that this was the consequence of his policy " Drill, baby, drill". There's just 1 small problem... That's not precisely true.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), oil production in the USA increased by 3%, or by 350,000 barrels a day, in 2025, setting a fresh yearly production evidence at the level of 13.6 million barrels a day .

The production of crude oil in Saudi Arabia, before the closure of the Strait of Ormuz on 28 February, was around 10,086 million barrels a day , somewhat expanding compared to 10,073 million barrels a day in December 2025.

And Russia? In 2025, Russia produced 9,1–9,3 million barrels a day.

Trump's claim is technically correct only if we consider total amount of petroleum fluids – i.e. oil + natural gas fluids specified as ethane, propane, butane, plus the profit from refining and another fluids. utilizing this broad definition, it can be concluded that the United States produces a full of 23–24 million barrels a day, while Russia and Saudi Arabia together produce 21–22 million barrels a day.

But here's the problem... The United States is NOT energy independent. I encourage you to watch Danny Davis' conversation with Art Berman (click here ). erstwhile Trump boasts that the United States is the largest oil maker in the world, he tells a confusing story. It is actual that the United States produces immense amounts of oil, but a kind produced oil does not full match the real needs of their refinery infrastructure and the economy, which makes Further imports are not only economically viable but even essential for structural reasons.

Art Berman, an oil geologist and energy consultant, argues convincingly that the current global oil supply crisis – mainly due to the disturbances in the Ormuz Strait as a consequence of the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran – will not resolve quickly. It presents a realistic, data-based view that contrasts sharply with Trump administration's optimistic statements on oil production and prices in the US.

I was delighted to hear Berman present the same argument that I have presented since the closing of the Strait of Ormuz: i.e. that closure/blockage (through mines, attacks and U.S. actions) caused the removal of a immense amount of oil from planet markets (about 20% of maritime trade). It is simply a shock without precedent in past and there is no easy or fast solution. Stocks are rapidly reduced and the effects of delays will be powerfully felt in the coming months.

The most fascinating part of Berman's analysis was his claim that the United States, contrary to Trump's claims, are not energy independent in the field of oil. US shale production is mostly light, sweet oil (Low density and low sulphur content).

However, the U.S. refinery infrastructure – and in peculiar the immense refinery complex on the Gulf of Mexico – was built and optimized decades ago to process heavy acid oil . For this reason, the United States must import dense oil from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and another countries to power existing refineries while exporting light shale oil to Asia and Europe.

The United States is dependent on dense acid oil due to the key function of diesel in the American economy. The US economy is mostly based on diesel, which is best produced from dense oil... Trucks, trains, agricultural equipment, construction machinery and fuel oil in the north-east of the country – all of these distilled fuels are produced from dense oil. Since American shale does not supply adequate dense fractions to meet national diesel demand, our economy is structurally susceptible to disruption and imports stay structurally necessary, regardless of the amount of light oil produced.

This fact sheds fresh light on Trump's January invasion of Venezuela. In March 2025 Saudi Arabia occupied only 4th place among oil suppliers to the US with supply of 196,000 barrels a day, behind Canada (3.8 million barrels a day), Mexico (397,000 barrels a day) and Venezuela (253,000 barrels a day). However, since Maduro's capture, imports of Venezuelan dense oil to the US have increased more or little three times – from about 99,000 barrels a day in December 2025 to over 500,000 barrels a day in early 2026 – which is 1 of the most drastic changes in the structure of oil imports to the US in years and is straight addressing the oil supply gap that I have previously identified.

In the light of that, it seems a legitimate question... Did the Trump administration foresee the closure of the Ormuz Strait and usage Maduro's capture as an excuse to increase imports of large quantities of oil from Venezuela? And the question is: hmmmm.

Crazy, busy podcast day. I started with Nima and Colonel Wilkerson:

I first spoke to Miroslav from the Czech Republic... A sweet kid:

Sabby Sabs caught me talking about a drone attack in Romania... Despite first attempts to blame Russia, the Romanian president later admitted that it was a stray drone shot down by an electronic war: