In the mediate East, a breakthrough took place: the United States and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire to open the way for a wider agreement and unlock the Ormuz Strait. Both parties declared that the offensive would be stopped. "This is an chance for everyone to do something very good," Donald Trump announced.
By Tuesday afternoon Washington's rhetoric was highly confrontational. Donald Trump, publishing further entries on fact Social, built the atmosphere of the final clash. "All civilization will die that night," he wrote in 1 of them, suggesting that the deficiency of a breakthrough in talks with Tehran could lead to escalation of hard to foretell consequences. In another post he emphasized: “If the Strait of Ormuz is not opened, the answer will be fast and decisive.”
According to U.S. media coverage, the US administration prepared attacks not only for military purposes, but besides for Iran's critical infrastructure. Trump wasn't hiding the scale of the possible operation. “We will destruct what needs to be destroyed”, he declared and assured that the United States “has full control over the situation”.
In this atmosphere the ultimatum was determined very precisely. Iran had until Wednesday morning (local time) to agree to reconstruct shipping in the Ormuz Strait. Otherwise, as Trump said, “you will see something the planet has not yet seen”.
Key function of Pakistan
Less than 2 hours before the deadline – at night of Polish time – the president of the United States announced a change of course. "We agree to a bilateral, full ceasefire for 2 weeks," he said. A minute later, he added: “This is an chance for everyone to do something very good.”
Pakistan's mediation was to play a key function in this return. According to reports from the U.S. media, it was the diplomatic channel from Islamabad that allowed the presentation of a proposal that Trump considered to be “the feasible basis of the agreement”. The president himself admitted that "Pakistan has done a very good job", and the plan presented "makes sense".
However, the function of China, which has remained a key partner for Tehran and 1 of the main recipients of Iran's oil, was besides important. According to any U.S. commentators, Beijing was to press for the fast unlocking of the Ormuz Strait, fearing destabilizing the energy markets that would hit its economy.
"Total Victory" according to Trump
At the heart of the agreement was the Strait of Ormuz – a strategic, narrow gulf that transports a crucial part of planet oil. Iran agreed to open it temporarily and the United States declared support in restoring the liquidity of shipping. Donald Trump spoke about it in a characteristic way, combining safety issues with the economy: “We will aid unload this immense tanker traffic. It will be large money, large things for all.” He added: “This is simply a very affirmative development. Very positive’.
The scale of the problem is indeed huge, with over 200 tankers waiting in the Gulf region, which cannot leave the region after Iran has closed the trail.
The president of the United States had no uncertainty about how to interpret the agreement. "This is simply a full and full victory," he stated, summarizing the effects of the force on Tehran. “We have achieved our goals. In fact, we have exceeded our goals," he added.
At the same time, he left a door open in case the conversation was broken. "If individual breaks this agreement, you will see the answer," he said. He did not specify details, but clearly suggested returning to the military option.
Two weeks test
On the Iranian side, he is much more restrained. Tehran treats the ceasefire as a temporary solution – a break that is intended to let further negotiations to be concluded, alternatively than an end to them. Among the conditions there are demands for the abolition of sanctions and safety guarantees.
At the same time, the Iranian authorities stress that the restoration of shipping does not mean losing control of the strategical route. The Ormuz Strait is to stay under the supervision of the Iranian armed forces, which in practice gives Tehran the chance to influence ship movement and keep force on opponents.
This shows that both sides are entering the next phase with completely different expectations. In this context, Israel's attitude is significant, which, while accepting the ceasefire over Iran, at the same time maintains military activity in Lebanon. The Israeli authorities emphasise that these actions are aimed at Hezbollah structures and are of a preventive nature and therefore, in their view, do not conflict with the Iran agreement.
In the United States, Trump's decision sparked mixed reactions. any Republicans talk about effective demonstration of force and evidence that force works. Democrats accuse the president that he first led to a dangerous escalation of the conflict and then declared success by withdrawing at the last minute.
On the another hand, the financial markets are dominated by relief. The possible of unlocking the Ormuz Strait means a fall in tension at 1 of the key points of the global economy – and a simplification in the hazard of further increases in natural material prices.
