Government coalition in Latvia in decay: dispute over Istanbul Convention

5 November Latvian Parliament (Saeima) under the force of the public and the president decided to suspend further action of the Act on the withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention (on preventing and combating force against women and home violence; Latvia ratified it in 2023). The substance was postponed for another parliamentary word – the elections are scheduled to take place in the autumn of 2026.

The most outrageous political debate in Latvia in fresh years began at the end of October with the adoption, after many hours of deliberations, of the Convention's withdrawal bill, for which 56 (in 100) MPs from both the opposition and the government coalition advocated. In consequence to the vote in the center of Riga, there was a demonstration attended by about 5,000 supporters of this regulation. In the following days, Latvian citizens have collected over 60,000 signatures under the request of president Edgars Rinkēvičs to suspend the promotion of the bill.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the mobilisation of Latvian society and its accompanying strong polarisation of public opinion will be exploited by politicians. The ideological dispute around the Istanbul Convention will mostly specify next year's electoral campaign.

Comment

• The debate around the Act on the exit from the Istanbul Convention showed that the government coalition is dysfunctional, and Latvian national policy next year awaits paralysis, caused by the likely sabotage of works by the conservative wing of the cabinet. The Act was filed by the opposition group Latvia at the First Place (LPV) and supported by the National Unity (NA), the United List (AS), For stableness (S!) and the Government Coalition Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS). another parties forming the cabinet – fresh Unity (JV) and advancement (P) expressed their opposition. The attitude of the ZZS sparked the discontent of Prime Minister Evika Siliņi (New Unity), who announced the political consequences of the coalition. On the another hand, politicians from the left-wing P group suggested the creation of a number government. Further functioning of the coalition in its current form will mean difficulties in proceeding with key laws and will lead to political inertia until next year's parliamentary elections. The current coalition is only an ad hoc alliance of parties differing ideologically, and the dispute over the Istanbul Convention only reinforced the existing misunderstandings. It is expected that the ZZS will sabotage attempts to implement reforms proposed by the JV or P. It besides seems unrealistic to build an alternate majority by grouping the Prime Minister with the current arrangement of forces in parliament.
• A joint vote by nationalists, populists and Russian parties to retreat from the Istanbul Convention indicates that despite major disputes, conservative groups can act together. To any extent, this can be seen as a change in the conventional model of divisions on the Latvian political scene. The so-far polarisation strategy was characterised by the fact that the alleged Latvian parties – from nationalists to liberals – co-operating despite ideological differences against the groups of Latvian Russians. The ideological conflict on moral and moral issues is not strong adequate to unite pro-Western nationalists, populists and the organization of Latvian Russians in the close future. However, it should be pointed out that ideological divisions will play an increasingly crucial function in social issues alternatively than a fundamental dispute along cultural lines.
• The election run in 2026 will focus on ideological issues despite the urgent request to address economical and social problems. Conservative groups – belonging to the mainstream (such as NA, AS or ZZS), parties positioning themselves as anti-establishment (LPV) and formations representing the Russian number – will appeal to narratives about "fighting against sex ideology" and defending conventional values. In turn, these progressive – JV, P and smaller liberal parties – will accentuate attachment to European values, membership of the West and respect for human rights. Key themes specified as overcoming economical stagnation, migration policy and demographic problems will go further.