The defeat of Ukrainian troops on all fronts

On 1 January 2025, erstwhile examining objectively the situation on the fronts of the war on Ukraine, i.e. a way free from prejudice, propaganda and disinformation, we see the uncontested defeat of the Ukrainian army and its retreat. The Russian troops are everywhere in charge of the initiative and successfully carry out offensive actions. The Ukrainian Army, not only is in deep defense, is suffering dense losses in people and equipment all day, retreating by giving up the area.

Ukrainian losses in equipment, shortages of ammunition, and above all dense losses in humans, combined with an irrational persistent defence brought a full effect, in the form of a failure of ability to defy the Russian army effectively.
Long-awaited, obtained with a large blood donation, the effect of the Russian creeping offensive of General Gierasimov, allows to accomplish Stawka goals set by the Russian leadership as part of the alleged peculiar Military Operation in Ukraine.
The open question remains whether the United States, and specifically the recently elected president Donald Trump, will lead in January 2025 to a truce/room and "clean up" the triumph in the war of the Russian army before its nose.

However, this is simply a future, a future event and not certain, let's look at the situation on the fronts present and the successes of the Russian leaders of individual groups:

1. Russian North Group. General Alexander Lapin recovered 60% of the hen and exterminated the elite Ukrainian units under Sunja.
The command of Ukrainian troops, with stubbornness worthy of a better cause, at all costs strives to keep the continuously decreasing cape in Russia's territory in the Kurdish siege. Currently, after 3 Russian controversy, there is 40% of the area originally occupied with respective twelve villages and the town of Sunja in Ukrainian hands. Under Sunj, it is theoretically important, but since 1 January 2025 due to the Ukrainian decision to refuse gas transit, it is no longer applicable to the gas pump station sending gas to Europe.

Inside this “pocket” around the city of Sunja, the battalions of elite Ukrainian brigades are fighting. It is the 47th Mechanized Mechanized Brigade "Magura" equipped with U.S. M1A1SA Abrams tanks and combat infantry wagons M2A2 Bradley ODS, 80, 82 (equipped with Challinger-2 tanks, bwp Marder-1A3 tanks and Sryker transporters) and 95 Squadrons Desantowo Szturmowe, 22, 41 and 61 sr 67 Mechanized Brigades, 17 dense Brigade Mechanized (former 17th Armored Brigade), 101 and 129 Territorial defence Brigades and a number of smaller units including elite 225 Sturm Battalion equipped with BWP M2A2 Bradley, 4 and 6 Regiments of Rengers. In the retreat there are 1st Armoured Brigade and 36th Marine Brigade.

Russian “North” group General Alexander Lapin tries to get the Ukrainians out of Russia. The main operational intention of the Russians is to strike at the base of the Ukrainian burglary along the Russian Ukrainian border. present is about 20 km. Ukrainians for their part counterattack and effort to halt Russians. There are bloody fears of local significance. Russian troops on the left flank of Ukrainian burglary captured the village of Darino, from which Ukrainians effort to discard them.
On the right flank, the Russians captured Plechowo and invaded Gujevo. Their reconnaissance groups have crossed borders and are active in Ukrainian territory. The Russian 11th defender Squadron Desertowo Stormowa liberated the village of Czerkaska Konopielka and is located 3-4 km from Sunja.

On the left wing of the Ukrainian burglary, General Lapin grouped quite a few his forces. There is simply a 106th Tulsk Guards Airborne Division, 83rd Independent Guards Armed Forces Brigade and 155th Guards Marine Brigade. Centrally fights the Russian 810 defender Marine Brigade and 5 different firearm regiments mechanized.

On the right wing the Russians are attacked by forces: the 2nd Guarded Specnaz Brigade, the 11th Guarded Armed Forces Squadron, the 177th Marine Regiment, the 78th "Achmat" Regiment and the 26th Assaulted Armoured Battalion and the 15th Volunteer Brigade "Piatnaszka". The stake was supported by 2 companies of assault drones and a battalion of unmanned “Kaskada”. It was in the "North" Group's action belt that allied units of the North Korean Army were directed, whose numbers (light infantry and specnazu) could be estimated at about 3-5 1000 soldiers. The soldiers fight with large sacrifice, but have seen shortcomings in training on the battlefield dominated by drones. Ukrainian troops are giving them severe losses with artillery fire and drone strikes.

In total, Russian forces are somewhat superior to Ukrainian forces, but have strong air and artillery support. Putting the thesis, which makes respective Polish on-call analysts, that this is the main axis of Russian offensive activities in the fall of 2024, and the operation on Donbas close Pokrowski is simply a postponement, is at least absurd.

General Lapin is besides subject to troops fighting under Kharkiv. However, actions in this direction are third-class for Ukrainians and Russians, and this section of the front is fundamentally passive. However, it is worth noting that half of the town of Volchanska, so to the river Vovcza is in Russian hands. The another half, beyond the river in Ukrainian hands. However, it is hard to talk about the construction of the city in the area of fighting, due to the fact that as a consequence of the transition of districts from hands to hands, it fundamentally ceased to be and resembles the scenery of left-hand Warsaw in January 1945.

2. West Group General Kuzowlev rejected from Kupańsk, but captured the capes on the Oskoł River, and 1st Armoured defender Army gradually reduces the Ukrainian holding area on the right bank of the river.
The commander of the Moscow Military territory and the commander of the ‘West’ Group, General Sergei Kuzowlev has units from the European part of Russia (6th National Military Army – St. Petersburg region) and the elite 1st Armoured defender Army, and well-trained and equipped 20th National Army). The problem is that his subordinate troops operate on an highly negative geographically, rather heavy fortified area. Not least, a strong group of Ukrainian Armed Forces is located here.

The main task of General Kuzowlew Staw is to expel Ukrainians from the areas on the left bank of the Oskoł River and to gain an crucial transport and logistics hub – the town of Kupańsk. If it is the first, it goes like a “blood from the nose” but it goes, the second goal seems far distant to be achieved.

As part of the autumn offensive, a superb Russian maneuver by the 25th Mechanized firearm Brigade, it penetrated the Ukrainian defensive lines and entered the Kupańska industrial territory with a narrow wedge. However, the strong Ukrainian detachments accumulated in the course of 2 weeks of bloody fighting, rejected the Russians for starting positions.

To surprise, however, many observers, units of the 6th National Army crossed the Oskoł River and formed a bridgehead under the village of Dwierzecznaja. Interestingly, 2 reserve regiments of mechanized shooters (1844 and 1855) did so. 8th Battalion of the 10th Independent Mountain Assault Brigade “Edelweiss and 40th Independent Battalion “Kodak” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are incapable to destruct the Russian base.

Below the town of Kupańsk, the Russian 1st Armoured defender Army penetrated the wedge (2nd Tamańska firearm Division, supported by 153 Tank Regiment from the 47th Armoured Division) to the Oskoł River, forming around Ukrainian units under Kupański on its left bank a circumstantial "bottle".

This Russian ‘klin’ is constantly expanding. The Russians control the area along the river from the village of Kolisnikiwka to the village of Kruglakiwka, where they captured even the foothold. Below are the 27th defender firearm Brigade of the Mechanized and 4th Cantemir armored defender Division. These units have late won the villages of Łozów and Wiszniewe and are approaching the crucial communication node of the village of Borowa. A strong group of Ukrainian troops consisting of battalions of the following brigades is defended here: 3rd Armoured Brigade, 44th Mechanized Brigade, 77th Aeromobile Brigade, 104th and 115th Territorial Defence Brigade supported by 40th Artillery Brigade.

The Russian 20th National Military Army operating 3 and 144 Divisions of Mechanized Rifles threw Ukrainians into the Zeriebiec River and has been fighting for respective months a bloody conflict for the village of Terny, any of which pass from hand to hand.
In general, the merchant's operating direction and the dwarf's operating direction, they bind many individuals on both sides, however, the Russian side has the initiative and constantly pushes the Ukrainians back.

3. Russian confederate Group – After staff changes, Russian forces have besides revived, but success at Siewierski is not visible, but under Kurachowo they push Ukrainians out of the drawing “work” here and bloodyly storm the town fortress of Jar. In the fall of 2024 in the atmosphere of scandal, there was a change of command, the confederate Group. It is commanded by General Aleksander Sanchik, transferred here with command of the “East” Group. The recalled General Genadiy Anashkin was expected to mislead the General Staff by writing false reports on the successes of Siewierski.

The confederate Group forces are fighting at a alleged Siewierski performance, where the 3rd General Army has been completely stuck, effectively detained for a year by an highly effective defence of the Ukrainian group under the town of Siewiersk. Despite dozens of attempts to attack, Ukrainian soldiers effectively defend themselves by inflicting tremendous losses on people and equipment on the Russians, which is widely documented in many videos of reconnaissance drones.

The second part of the troops The “South” group fights in the alleged Southdonie operational direction, which is the central part of the outline of the “cat” close Kurachowo. These are units of the 8th Guarded Military Army (150 Guarded Armed firearm Division and 20th Mechanized firearm Division). These troops are now “pulling” Ukrainians from the semicircular under Kurachowo.

A separate part of the forces of the confederate Group, supported by Stanka 98 Guards of the Air-Desant Division are troops storming 1 of the key cities-the fortress of Donbas – the city of Jar Times defended by a strong Ukrainian garrison including the 24th Mechanized Brigade. Russian troops reached the railway station, however, Ukrainian forces full recaptured large fire resistant materials facilities. The city is displaced, the ruins are made here, bunkers built shelters, hidden roads of communication and conflict is highly bloody. Ukrainians effort at all costs to halt attacking Russians, due to the strategical location of the Jaru Times.

The fighting for the Siewerna territory and the fire-resistant materials mill are fierce, the situation is dynamic and at any time, the shawl can tip over in favour of 1 or the another side. Paratroopers of the 98th Air-Dessant defender Division, the 4th Mechanized firearm Brigade and the Volunteer/rental ‘Espaniola’ Brigade, the ‘Soviet Infantry’ Battalion – BARS-13 ‘Russian Legion’ and 2 reserve regiments (1442 and 1008) .In addition to the elite, ‘old’ staff of the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Jaru Brigade, the 1st and 23rd Battalions of the Presidential defender Brigade, the 2nd Donbas National defender Battalion, 210th peculiar Regiment ‘Berlingo’, the 56th Mechanized Brigade.

4. Center Group General Mordwiczow storms Toreck, wing of Pokrowsk and takes Kurachowe and takes out the German before the Lithium deposits. The “Centre” group is commanded by 1 of the most capable Russian generals of this war Andrei Mordwiczew. It was him in charge of the Joint Military Group in Ukraine that General Walery Gierasimov entrusted the main task of the winter campaign. The strongest Russian “Centre” group leads to an attack aimed at capturing Pokrovska, capturing Kurachowo and the Ukrainian troops south of the city, and capturing the town-fortress Toreck.

On 1 January 2025 1 of the tasks was performed. The 51st Guarded Military Army forces 114 and 5 Mechanized firearm Brigades captured the town-fort Kurachowo including an industrial region with a coal power plant. These brigades constitute the utmost northern arm of the “sticks” “work” under Kurachowo formed together with the “South” and “East” grouping units. But the key task is the conflict of 60,000th city. Cover key communication and logistics hub of Ukraine Armed Forces on Donbasa.

As of 1 January 2025, the left flank of the attack covers the westward Russian 90 Guards Vitebsko-Nowgorodska Armour Division. General Adrej Mordwiczow, the commander of the “Centre” Group, formed a strong “armoured fist” 90 Guards Armoured Division approaches west with 3 regiments of tanks (6,80, 239) and a regiment of mechanized shooters (228). The office of the Center Group as part of its reinforcement assigned him 2 reserve regiments of mechanized infantry (1487, 1437) .
South of the 90th Armoured Division, they attack 3 brigades of 51 Guards of the National Military Army (114, 5 and 110) and a 60th assault battalion "Somali".

The Ukrainians are retreating to the final perimeter of the defence separating Donbas from the oblast of dnieepropetrovsk. Ukrainian forces pushed west are: 35 Marine Brigade, 55 Motorised Brigade, 5 Armoured Brigade, 151 Mechanized Brigade and a number of smaller units.

The attack on Pokrowsk General Mordwiczew runs according to the rules of the Russian school of city acquisition, i.e. bilateral winging. On the right flank under the village of Shevchenko and centrally south of Pokrowska Mordwiczow he threw his penny. These are units of the 2nd Guarded Military Army (15 and 30 Guarded Guarded Armed firearm Brigades and the 27th Guarded Armed firearm Division) and 41th Guarded Military Army including 74th Armed firearm Brigade and 55th Mountain Brigade.

The Russians captured the Kuczna village of Shevchenko close Pokrowski, and that means that they captured the large decks of lithium. president Volodymyr Zelenski late stressed the large importance of Ukrainian natural resources (including lithium) for the economical interests of the US, as an argument for extending military support for Donald Trump's presidency.

The capture of the villages of Shevchenko and Nowotroicki close Pokrowski not only crosses the communication way connecting Pokrowsk and Kurachow, but besides deprives Ukraine of access to 1 of the 3 lithium deposits located on the east outskirts of Shevchenka.
In January 2024, European Lithium purchased the Shevchenko Lithium deposits and the European Lithium Ukraine licensed lithium in Ukraine. Experts believe that if Europe wants to complete its energy transformation, it needs its own lithium deposits. His largest resources in Europe are in Ukraine in the Donetsk-Lugansk region. The Russian-captured lithium deposits in Shevchenka are second. Russian forces had already occupied the Zaporozh deposits in Kruta Balka in early 2022.
The 3rd deposits of lithium, Good game in Kirowograd is located in central Ukraine. According to the European Lithium, Ukraine can have the largest resources of this natural material throughout Europe.

However, let us return to the military situation at Pokrowski. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has directed considerable force to defend this crucial city, importantly strengthening it recently. On the eve of the storm of the city, their lineup is 31, 153 Mechanized Brigades, 68, 71 and 152 Jegrów Brigades, 25th Air-Desant Brigade, 38th Marine Brigade, 125th Territorial Defence Brigade and on the left flank, east of Pokronsk 2 National defender Brigades 14 "Red Kalina" and 15 "Kara-Dag". The first 2 days ago, the attack of the Russian 137th Assault Brigade appeared to indicate that the Russians were planning to wing from the east.

The first 4th of 2025 will clearly pass under the sign of the conflict of Pokrowsk to which both sides prepared, set up forces and started fighting.

1 January 2025 is fundamentally the end of the defence of the Ukrainian city - Toreck fortress. In December 2024, the veterans of the erstwhile self-appointed Donetsk People's Republic captured the key bastion of Ukrainian defence “Central” Mine and 80% of the city's surface.
The Russian assault of the powerful Ukrainian fortress, built since 2014, is over based on the industrial city of Toreck. Ukrainians had a large effort of engineering troops to build the Torecki territory Reinforced, a key defensive position on Donbasa.
The Ukrainian Battalions of 100, 142 and 150 Mechanized Brigades, the famed MMA Regiment “Tsunami”, “Safari”, “Dnipro”, 49th National defender Battalion “Sich Karpacka” and 4th Battalion 101st Presidential defender Brigade, after fierce fighting, were forced to retreat.

On the Russian side, Toreck has been storming veterans fighting against the Ukrainian army since 2014: legendary 1st Slavic firearm Brigade Mechanized and no little celebrated reconnaissance battalion “Sparta” and 132nd Mechanized firearm Brigade and operators from the 25th GRU Specnazu Brigade and independent regiments (101, 87 and 109) . present they are units of the 51st Guarding Military Army.

Ukrainian troops usage the "burnt ground" rule to blow up immense towers of mined shafts, and retreat to the surrounding areas of the northern districts of the city. The last bastion will be the “Torecka” mine. The Russian attack of units of the 51st Guarded Military Army continues and all day, another settlement and streets of what is left of Torecka pass into Russian hands. Although any Polish analysts announced the Russians' capture of Toreck, it is far ahead of the facts. In my assessment of the conflict of Toreck will proceed until the end of January, as its failure will be a tiny catastrophic effect on the defence lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Donbas and General Alexander Syrian, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army, will do everything possible to make this minute happen at the latest.

5. East Group General Ivanaev operationally circled the large Novosiołka and his troops form the left arm of the “paint” winging of Ukrainian troops south of Kurachowo.

Russian forces at the interface of Zaporozh and Donbas are subject to the ‘East’ group, late commanded by General Andrei Ivanaev. The conflict for a sketching “cook” under the town of Kurachowo is rather complicated in terms of the division of the competent Russian troops. There are fighting units under 3 command (South, East and Center). The confederate arm of the ticks along the Dry Jała River is the Russian “East” group of General Andrei Ivanev. It is approaching the forces of the 49th Guarded National Army despite the fierce opposition of defending Ukrainian brigades, The Russians went out into the forefield of the village Kosiantypil and skewed taking under fire control the H-15 road. The right wing forms the units of the 18th Army Corps and fill the rout along the Dry Jała River.

The impetuous Russian strike rejected the 37th Marine Brigade and 74th Reconnaissance Battalion directed here by General Alexander of Syria. The Russians have gone out on the dry river run. Their troops fill positions along its course of the road, which will make it highly hard to retreat the 79th Squadron, the Da Vinci assault battalion, the 21st OPFOR Battalion and the 3rd Battalion of the 101st Conservation Brigade.

The main task of General Ivanaev presently carried out is the central section of the front cast by units of the 5th Guarded Military Army. These troops now took an operational lap, an highly crucial communication node, a heavy fortified town of Wielika Nowosiołka. As a consequence of many weeks of dense fighting, Russian forces flanked the large Novosiolka on both sides, cut off all paved roads, connecting the defending garrison of Ukrainian troops with the outside world. Basically, retreat is only possible through fields and part of it is the river Mokre Jała.

From the south, the Russians are attacking the 127th Mechanized firearm Division and 60th Mechanized firearm Brigade. The right arm of the lap consists of battalions from the 5th Independent defender of the Armoured Brigade, 40th Guarded Marine Brigade and 37th Mechanized firearm Brigade. Ukrainians have elite units here, who resisted fiercely, but on 1 January 2025 their situation is fatal and they will gotta withdraw. The battalions of the 17th and 11th National Guards Brigades, the 3rd Presidential defender Battalion, the 48th Assault Battalion, the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, the 110th Mechanized Brigade and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade defend themselves here. Probably, after capturing the large Novosołki, General Andrei Ivanev will strike north towards the village of Bahatyr, Kostianinopil, Andrijivka.

On the Zaporosian section of the front, Russian forces conduct a reconnaissance of the fight and mostly rejected Ukrainian troops at Rabotino, from areas they gained as part of the large summertime offensive in the summertime of 2023. Russian forces are most likely preparing for an operation that is attached to the tallness of the city of Oriechowo. Dniepr Group. General Tieplinski actively destroys Ukrainian units over the Dnieprem and may be preparing to jump across the river.

The “Dniepr” Group troops commanded by Air-Desant Army commander Michał Jurewicz Tipliński mostly play a passive role. The defensive line runs along the Dniepr River and a tiny part of Zaporoże including the protection of the atomic power plant in Energiodaże (Zaporoska Power Plant Atomowa) and a front section along the villages of Kamianskoje, Piatichatki, Niestierianka. Tieplinski after the liquidation of the Ukrainian bridgehead close Krynkami fights with tiny troops over islands and islands on Dnieper. The Russians have late revived in the Antonov Bridge area and have led strong fire baths troops to the positions of Ukrainian troops in Kherson and around the city.

A tiny group of ‘Dniepr’ to prevent Ukrainian operations in Crimea. The Ukrainian side fears active action to return Tieplinski to Khersonland, from where it withdrew in November 2022. This seems unlikely, quite a few forces The Dniepr Group donated to another sections of the front including at Kursk. Currently, General Tieplinski has under his command a unit that could theoretically capture the base on the Dnieper, and these are: 80 Arctic firearm Brigade Mechanized, 61st Marine Brigade, 104th Air-Desant Division, 10th and 22nd Specnaz Brigade, 49th Launcher Brigade, 45th Guarded Specnaz Brigade WDW, and 70th Squadron of Mechanized Rifles.

For a change, the Russian side fears that the Ukrainians are planning to usage the fact that after the blast of the Kakowska Dam, the Kachowski Tank dried up on Dniepra and attacked the largest atomic power plant in Europe in Energodar. In any case, the "Dniepr" group is bound by a fewer Ukrainian forces and the tasks which the Rate has placed, 1 of the most capable generals of the Russian army, General Tieplinski, are unknown. In conclusion, the situation of the Ukrainian army is severe, the initiative is full in the hands of the Russian troops and they carry out offensive actions. The Ukrainian side faces shortages of personnel, equipment and is forced to retreat. More and more frequently we are dealing with the abandonment of defensive positions without orders and the general collapse of the fighting spirit.

Perspectives for 2025 are not beneficial to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is facing a retreat in increasingly hard conditions of the predominance of Russian troops on land and in the air. The Russian Army at the price of considerable losses in people and equipment after nearly 3 years of fighting, is in a situation that allows laborious, but nevertheless attacking and taking over further areas of Ukraine. Only diplomatic-political intervention can save the Ukrainian army from the final military defeat which is already apparent and which will be completed in 2025.

Krzysztof Podgórski