Last week, he brought information about an agreement on the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Information about its fundamentally ready-made form has been repeated for weeks, but only on January 15 did the media supply information about Hamas' consent to a truce negotiated with the aid of American, Qatari, Emirati and Egyptian diplomacy. On that day, the fact of the agreement was confirmed by U.S. legislature abroad Affairs Committee president Jim Risch. It was not initially confirmed by any of Israel’s representatives.
In the “first phase” of Hamas' ceasefire, 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza have been released since 7 October 2023, which is not on the list of dead. Then, in the first, temporary stage, 2,000 Palestinian prisoners will be released, including about 250 sentenced to life imprisonment, but those belonging to the “Sil Nuchba” – the erstwhile Hamas peculiar Branch, which was on the tip of the attack of October 7, 2023. Among those released there will be 1,000 detainees in Gaza after the war. Among the exempt Israelis are not only those captured on 7 October 2023, but besides Awer Mengist, captured by Hamas inactive in 2014 and Hashim as-Sajid, held since 2015.
In the first phase to take 42 days, the Israeli troops would begin to retreat from the Gaza Strip, but stay in it “at the safety gauge”. This means leaving “the Necarim Corridor”, inhabited areas, to areas with a scope of 400 meters from the border. Israeli troops will stay in “the Philadelphia Corridor”.
Israel will open the Gaza border crossing with Egypt in Rafah. First for humanitarian aid, and after the release of all female hostages, besides for the free movement of civilians.
On the 16th day of the entry into force of the ceasefire, concrete talks are to begin about the release of further hostages in the second stage. As part of this phase, “protocols” are to be signed to guarantee that all Palestinian refugees return to their first residence in the Gaza Strip, including the northern part, without being searched by Israeli soldiers or officers. It can be presumed, although the media did not explicitly state that at this phase the Palestinians would search the indefinite nature of the ceasefire.
In the 3rd phase Hamas is to release all remaining hostages in his hands, after which Israel's armed forces are to complete their withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Sunday morning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be no deal due to the fact that Hamas did not supply a name list of hostages to be released first. The Palestinian organization rapidly replied that the hold in submitting the list was due to “technical issues” (communication is via Qatar). As a result, the truce entered into force at 10:15 alternatively of 7:30 Warsaw time. During these little than 3 hours, 19 residents of the Gaza Strip were killed, and 36 were injured, showing the fragility of the agreement.
The attack of the Israeli drone on Monday, in the European infirmary area in the confederate part of the Zone, resulting in 3 Palestinians, is even more striking. On Saturday Netanjahu announced that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump had guaranteed him "the right to resume the war" if he felt Hamas did not comply with the terms of the ceasefire.
On Sunday afternoon Hamas released 3 Israelis captured during the rally on October 7, 2023. This is Romi Gonen, Emily Damari (also holds British citizenship) and Doron Steinbrecher. The transfer took place through the global Red Cross.
On Monday morning, 90 Palestinians were released from Israeli prisons and detention. 78 of them are people not from the exclave, but from the main Palestinian territory – the West Bank of Jordan. Among them are militants and politicians. On Sunday, more than 600 trucks entered the Gaza Strip with humanitarian aid to the starving population. In the Palestinian exclave, the mass of refugees have already begun to return to their homes. The word home has a contractual meaning. Recordings coming from the Zone, especially from the northern part of the Zone, show a full patch of rubble, resembling Warsaw in late 1944 and 1945. erstwhile I wrote this on Monday the terms of the truce were mostly implemented.
The conditions mostly correspond to what we have heard about negotiations for years. Based on the reactions to his announcement, it can be assumed that Israel was more likely to block his conclusion, and it was only in fresh weeks that something had happened that changed Benjamin Netanyahu's attitude, despite the direct political costs he suffered with the entry into force of the ceasefire. On Monday the resignation was given by the safety minister Itamar Ben Gewir, representing the most extremist judaic nationalists (the organization “Jewish Power). Thus, he was threatened by a akin finance minister Becall Smotricz representing spiritual Zionists. The Netanyaj government will keep the majority in Kneset, but the minimum, with 2 tickets.
Despite this, the Israeli Prime Minister entered a truce, which may propose that the main importance was external force and that these pressures could be presumed to have come from Donald Trump. Netanjahu ignored the recommendations of the Biden administration for months, though let us stress that these were not recommendations supported by serious conditions. Biden's administration only held off last spring's transportation of the heaviest bombs to Israel, after shooting up the convoy of the American humanitarian organization planet Central Kitchen, in which our countryman Damian Soból died. In general, the U.S. gave Israel everything he wanted – material, intelligence and military support, taking into account his engagement in the repelling of Iran's missile-dron attacks or the bombing of Yemen's Ansarullah.
I consider the current ceasefire to be very fragile due to the fact that it does not contain any premises for a political solution or a component of the former, a socio-economic solution. Gaza has previously been a spauperized megagett remaining in the Israeli blockade since 2007. Now he's a sea of ruins. An effort to stabilise the region cannot be done without the billions invested in rebuilding the infrastructure. This will not be without the active function of the Petromonarchy of the Arabian Peninsula. Qatar has been reasoning about having a close relation with Hamas for years. The truce can verify the Buncho rhetoric of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan presenting himself for over a year as a champion of the Palestinian case. But no 1 will put any major money where at any time their fruit can be turned into persina by Israeli fire. Therefore, there will be no reconstruction without stabilisation, and in the long word there will be no stabilisation without bearable surviving conditions for 2 million Gazans.
Fragility of the truce besides determines the form of Donald Trump's administration, filled with highly pro-Israeli policies. During his first term, his son-in-law Jared Kushner proposed a "peace plan" which was a de facto plan to destruct any possible of a Palestinian state. Perhaps, however, more hard than 4 years ago, the geopolitical situation of the United States will bring force in Washington to reduce resources active in the mediate East.
Now the formulas of the political solution are missing. From the circles of Biden's administration came ideas of embracing the Gaza Strip mixed civilian administration involving the United Nations, the US and 1 of the petrochemicals and Israeli safety forces at the borders. On the first day of the truce, however, Hamas’ uniformed fighters came out. respective 1000 police officers posted by the Hamas have just taken their posts.
If, despite the failure of so many militants, if despite the failure of their political leaders, like Ismail Hanija and the military, as Mohammed al-Masri, Hamas inactive remains an organization large and integral adequate to enforce power over the Gaza Strip and defy Israel by engaging in his forces and giving him any loss, that means Israel will lose out of the exclave war. With the evaluation we gotta hold off, following military, or only political developments, the first images from the region suggest, however, that Hamas is, Hamas operates and maintains the support of a noticeable condition of the local population. As far as I read the accounts, Palestinian politicians and publicists consider specified a frost of conflict a victory. For this reason, too, I consider this truce weak. Israel lost over 900 soldiers and officers in this war. This is almost a 3rd of the losses suffered during the mass war of Yom Kippur with 2 strong arabian states. This is simply a major failure to Israelis in the fight against non-state organization encroached in a microregion for years locked in a blockade.
Paradoxically in the war that began and the most intense form took place in the Gaza Strip, Israel could lose in terms of its position and win at regional level. The Israelis managed to exterminate Hezbollah's staff and arsenals and, given the function of the US and France in Lebanon's truce agreement, the fresh election of the president and Prime Minister of that country, will accomplish a political dynamic which will weaken the capacity of Lebanese Shiite organisations. The war in the Gaza Strip and, above all, the next dominatrix war in Lebanon created conditions for the collapse of the Syrian arabian Republic. Regional, Iranian "resistance axis" broke. Hajat Tahrir asz-Sham, trying to accomplish dominance in Syria without the formal legitimacy that al-Assad had, even with Turkey behind his back supporting him, is simply a better situation for Israel than the protectorate of Russia and Iran. Immediately after the fall of al-Assad, Israelis destroyed the dense equipment of the erstwhile Syrian army with respective 100 raids and occupied another part of Syria approaching 25 km from its formal capital.
All of this means a strategical defeat of Iran, which has lost many influences and mechanisms of force projection in the region. Only Yemeni Huti remained unwavering, who showed everyone the large chance with the serious consequences of asymmetric military action at strategical points of the globe, at the time of the spread of drone and rocket technology.
The balance of over 15 months of war is overwhelming. 46,913 Palestinians were estimated dead. 110,750 were injured. 11,000 are believed to be missing. Most of their bodies most likely rot not yet discovered in the ruins. Excise data shows who was primarily the victim of the Israeli armed forces. The United Nations Human Rights Office reported in November that it verified data on 8119 people killed in the Gaza Strip from November 2023 to April 2024. Her analysis showed that around 44 percent of verified victims were children and 26 percent were women. Among those killed were the most people aged 5 to nine. About 80% of victims died in residential buildings or akin buildings. During the Hamas attack on October 7, 11,139 people died, in the vast majority of civilians, although respective may be victims of Israeli chopper missiles. any of the hostages died or died. How large – I will most likely find out during the truce.
Given the proportion of civilian casualties to combatants and the scale of the demolition of civilian infrastructure, the 15-month war in Gaza has become possibly the cruelest of the current armed conflicts. His burden is not only on Israel, but besides on the US, whose image has been damaged and in Europe and even more on the Global South. In the planet there are even little believers in any moral superiority of America and Poland is 1 of the last, isolated in this respect, social aquariums in which 1 can skimp in specified a belief. Another thing that Donald Trump does not care much about soft power anymore is that he understands that the fresh era of the performance of powers matters much less.
Krystian Kamiński
The author is simply a associate of the Main Board of the Confederation, was a associate of the Sejm of the Republic of Poland of the 9th term, text for fb
