If Trump wants peace at all costs, it is not good news for Poland

A day after talking to Putin Trump, he met with the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenski in the White House. Both Americans and Ukrainians are very restrained about the result of this event. I'm certain we know that The U.S. will not hand over the Tomahawk missiles to UkraineWhich is not a large surprise. There will be no return to politics from Joe Biden's time – generous military support, financed from the American budget. There are besides no additional sanctions and retaliatory duties on Russia.

You can't see the pressure.

In another words, after a fewer weeks of hope – erstwhile it seemed that Trump yet understood that Putin on Ukraine is beating him – again we are faced with a situation where the focus of US policy moves towards peace at all costs. And this price is to be paid primarily by Ukraine, due to the fact that Trump for any reason is incapable to press Russia.

In this context, it is worth recalling that Trump's erstwhile gathering with Putin – in August of that year in Alaska – ended in failure. There was no breakthrough, there was no common message, there were no appearances of convergence. This time it is to be different – Trump is counting on the "diplomatic momentum" which is due to the success of the ceasefire in Gaza. As if he didn't see that Ukraine wasn't the mediate East...

Zelenski, though not disillusioned, tries not to antagonize Washington. In his speech to the Ukrainian media, he stressed that "Putin does not perceive to the world, so the only language that can scope him is the language of pressure". But the large force from the strongest player – the United States – is inactive not visible. There is, however, a desire to get along – even if this would mean designation of Russian territorial conquests.

Ready to rehearse

What does this mean for Poland? First, it is time to abandon the belief that the alliance with the US is an axiom. It is simply a dynamic strategy – depending on politics, moods, calculations. Poland, as a front state, must admit that American abroad policy is susceptible not only to changes in administration, but besides to any degree depends on the whims of the head of state. That aid may be dependent on geopolitical calculations, not Treaty obligations. And that even the most spectacular declarations – "unwavering support" or "strategic partnership" – can be relativised erstwhile a fast deal is involved.

Secondly, the example of Ukraine shows that even a close partner can be called upon to "derogations for peace". That safety guarantees can be reinterpreted and the rules on which global order was built – negotiated. And that in a crisis situation it is not a directory of commitments, but a current political interest determines who will receive assistance and who will be called upon to "realism".

Thirdly, we must have our own strategy – not only towards Russia, but besides towards the changing function of America. We request to invest in our own defence capabilities, build regional coalitions, make independent technology systems. Be ready for the minute erstwhile the U.S. alliance credibility will be tested. The endurance of our country cannot depend on the result of this test...