Jerzy Moson: The unwanted Presidency of the European Union has become history

[AI] Jerzy Moson: At the end of June 2025, the half-year Polish Presidency in the European Union came to an end, which means that the Government of the Republic of Poland may feel obliged to commend its achievements in chairing the Council of the European Union. Of course, there's no glory problem, but...

Unwanted Presidency – Jerzy Moson evaluates six months of Polish Presidency in the European Union

Prime Minister Donald Tusk in his summary on Polish presidency stated that he had a feeling of relief that this was the end of the Polish Presidency. He's not surprised. There was a lot to deal with: blocking ETS II, so that – in the name of saving the climate – people would not land under a bridge in 2 or 3 years, reducing the burden from the first ETS, so that production capital would halt escaping from the Old Continent, agreeing with Donald Trump – the president of the United States of America, so that they would forget to rise duties on European products, sabotaging the Mercosur deal to save their native agriculture. What did it do?

What could not be done, despite Poland taking the presidency of the Council of the European Union?

Let us leave aside the trade agreement with the United States of America – this is what the European Commission is doing for now. The Polish government with no advanced ratings at Donald Trump would not have done much here, even if it were on its head. So this could be forgiven, so we're letting it go.

Let us besides presume that it is besides late for changes in the first ETS or that it is besides hard for global corporations to turn off the speculative emissions allowance strategy at this stage. The next challenge so falls. It's gonna be a small little fun now. But just a little.

The issue of an agreement with Mercosur grouping under an agreement with the European Union (Bolivia is inactive outside the agreement) 4 countries: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are not yet lost, although diplomats completed negotiations on 6 December 2024. The Polish Presidency so started besides late to confuse besides much here, but not adequate to halt the ratification process, and yet besides to aid block it.

How could the Tusk Government sabotage an agreement with Mercosur within the Polish Presidency of the European Union?

The European Union-Mercosur agreement can only be stuck at the national ratification stage, which should start at the earliest in early 2026, with a blocking majority of 4 countries with a full population of at least 35% or, little likely, a deficiency of ratification in the Mercosur countries.

Was there not adequate time in January 2025 to build a blocking coalition composed of countries most afraid by the European Union-Mercosur agreement: France, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Austria and Ireland? Not at all.

It was possible to start with obstruction: to call for precise translations of the final version of the agreement within the Presidency so that it does not rise any uncertainty and to push for agreed and translated arrangements in 2019 for the commercial part of the agreement and the fresh version of the agreement to be re-examined. This would give extra priceless time to both diplomats and farmers. In the next step or at the same time, environmental organisations had to be alerted to the controversial agreement of the European Commission to postpone the implementation of the instrument to combat deforestation in the Mercosur States by 1 year, at the price of agreeing an agreement. In a word, the Amazon Forest will be cut 12 months longer than the Greens think. Are they aware of this? I uncertainty it.

Ecologists could be motivated by part of the full 420.000.000 PLN, which Poland spent on its presidency, i.e. on delegations of officials. And how much can it cost to stick to the asphalt in Brussels on Rue for la Loi 200, where the European Commission's office are located? A million, two? I'm certain it's not much, but it's a good target. But no of this happened. Well, then, we are waiting for Brazilian chickens cheaper for a buck of gold and a wonderful Argentine beef. Goodbye, Polish stew.

What should be the most crucial challenge facing the Polish Presidency in the EU in 2025?

However, the most crucial challenge to focus on during the six-month Polish Presidency in 2025 was completely different. It should have been convinced by respective wealthy states that the ETS II system, which will start draining pockets in 2 years' time, primarily of the people of Central and east Europe, is simply a bad thought if the Union is to last at all within the current borders. Building a barricade on this issue is of course a political hazard for the initiator, but Slovakia has already paved the way. The confederate neighbours of Poland in September 2024 were the first in the Union to reject ETS II, thus counting even with economical alienation. Brave? Not necessarily. It's about surviving a fewer million Slovaks. Unfortunately, a breakthrough in ETS II in favour of Poles and Slovaks as it was not, so it is not, and it will not appear during the next Danish Presidency – Scandinavians who do large business in the fight against climate change should not be interested.

What does the Government of the Republic communicate as a success of the Polish Presidency in the Union, and what does it not boast about?

Among the successes of the half-year Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union, the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk lists the exclusion of defence spending from debt, which means that it will be possible to owe the state more in the name of a prominent nonsubjective of external security, without exposing itself to the beginning of an excessive deficit procedure. For now, however, fewer people wonder that this means strong inflationary pressure. So it can get more expensive.

Another communicative success is the push of SAFE, the fresh EU debt mechanics for defence. It's expected to reach. EUR 1.5 billion and callback the Instrument for Reconstruction and Immunity Enhancement on the basis of which the National Reconstruction Plan (NRP) was established. Thanks to SAFE loans with 3.5% interest on military orders, European armed companies will be able to count. How many of this money will go to Polish companies? It's besides early to answer that question.

It is besides unclear what will be the next success, the European Defence manufacture Programme (EDIP), which aims to strengthen the competitiveness and responsiveness of the European defence sector. According to its assumptions, the European Union is expected to guarantee the full of the EU from 2025 to 2027 1.5 billion euro for joint procurement. The initiative is good, but the scale of the project, given the defence needs of the countries of the European Union, is alternatively poor. But that is not all.

At the European Union summit in June 2025, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen praised the Polish Presidency for 16 and 17 packages of sanctions and fresh tariffs for Russian and Belarusian goods. She noted that Donald Tusk had completed his work on 37 crucial legal acts and achieved negotiating mandates for the next 18. That's the kind of authoritative success others are talking about alternatively of Donald Tusk.

Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council, together with von der Leyen, besides praised Ukraine for carrying out reforms at an awesome pace, indicating that it was time to intensify their own (EU) efforts. Did the Polish Presidency not show akin strength of action in this case towards the request to welcome an east neighbour to the European Union? If so, the Polish farmers will surely not resent it. What about the others? Following the reasoning of the Polish Prime Minister: it is good that the Polish Presidency is behind us.

Jerzy Moson, Head of Economy and the planet Information Agency, Analyst, Business Advisor

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AI Opinions ♪ Oh, yeah ♪ European Union / photograph of press releases EU 30.06.2025