For 3 years after the Saudi-Hutia truce, the situation in Yemen, regardless of its drama, seemed comparatively stable. Especially after a decade of devastating civilian war. The individual actors have dug into position. Huti in the most populous northwestern part of the country. Internationally recognized government a small further east. Pushed out of Aden and serving mostly in Riyadh. Under the patronage of the anti-Hutia coalition dominated by Saudis. And besides the United arabian Emirates, although in fact more patronizing the increasing separatist Provisional Council of the South, seeking to formalise the division of the country. Obtaining financial support and weapons from Abu Dhabi. The scenery was complemented by nationalists from the National opposition who advocated the restoration of the integrity of the state, the Elite Hadrami Forces in Hadramaut seeking greater autonomy for this rich province, and a full mosaic of local militias and Islamist survivors groups.
But nothing lasts in a vacuum. In December, the Provisional Council troops immediately occupied most of the provinces in central and east Yemen, reaching the border with Oman. By violating the balance of power. And threatening the safety interests (and prestige) of the Saudi Kingdom. It is not only about future solutions in Yemen and the Saudi position in the region, but besides about the strategical importance of Hadramaut and Mahra provinces for Arabia. This is the way of future transport corridors to the Yemeni coast of the Indian Ocean. The force demonstration was a parallel business by separatists of the presidential palace in Adena.
Riyadh reacted. The Emirat military base and 2 ships with arms and military vehicles for separatists unloaded in the port of Mukalla were attacked from the air, as were the troops of the South Council in the Haddramaut oil area. The Yemeni government has signed a safety agreement with the UAE. The Emirates decided to end the anti-terrorism mission in the provinces and the Saudi military were withdrawn from Aden. However, both sides are talking towards deescalation. The game is far from over, especially since the conflict is not limited to Yemen.
Recently writing about Somaliland, I predicted an acceleration of near-eastern dynamics. You shouldn't have waited long. The mediate East enters fresh Year with a large package of unknowns, to which Saudi-Emiracy relations are coming. It is crucial to want for a more effective solution than before. I attach these hopes to the individual package of best fresh Year's wishes for you. The mediate East is besides our case.
Ambassador Krzysztof Płomiński heads the mediate East Observatory at CSM, is simply a polytologist and diplomat, erstwhile Ambassador of the Republic of Poland to Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
