"Japan will be dragged into conflict". Expert: I would not like to live under these circumstances

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Professor, you were the first professional speedwriter employed by the nipponese government. You have worked with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for many years. Under his leadership, did Japan change its abroad policy?

Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi: Yes, primarily due to the profound changes in this region — now commonly called Indo-Pacific. The word was popularized mostly by Shinzo Abe.

Before the leadership of Abe, this region was widely known as Asia and the Pacific. The erstwhile deadline so excluded India, which are key. Abe saw the phenomenal growth of India and tried to bring Japan closer to them, supporting a natural strategical partnership on safety issues.

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin / East News

Shinzo Abe

In addition to strengthening Japan's relation with Australia and the United States, Abe's promotion of the concept of "Indo-Pacific" allowed the planet to see a wider geopolitical picture. Another key origin in changing nipponese abroad policy was China's power increase. 2 or 3 decades ago, many believed that China's integration into the global economy would encourage Beijing to adopt global standards and become like democratic countries.

But it was a mistake.

A immense mistake. Under Xi Jinping's rule, China has accepted what any call "digital laziness", utilizing advanced digital technologies to monitor and control public opinion. Japan, as China's direct neighbour, is straight affected by these changes. But Japan is not only a neighbour of China — it besides borders North Korea and Russia.

Japan is the only country in the planet to frequently send their fighters to intercept incoming aircraft from both Russia and China. This danger emphasizes how uncertain the nipponese environment is.

Japan, therefore, like Poland, is forced to base its safety on allies.

This leads me to another key origin behind the transformation of nipponese abroad policy.

Although the United States remains the world's main hegemonic power, the comparative decline of its power is undeniable. Given this change, who is better prepared to anchor the United States presence in the Indo-Pacific region than Japan?

It is simply a country in whose territory the US military is most active (outside American soil). Under Shinzo Abe, Japan took crucial steps to strengthen its network of alliances and change the global perception of Indo-Pacific.

"Beijing military advancement is at a staggering pace"

Will Japan proceed to strengthen its armed forces under fresh leadership? In 2024, Tokyo declared its defence spending at around 1.6 percent of its Gross home Product (GDP).

Whether the nipponese like it or not, Japan must increase its defence spending. However, the national budget is the main restriction. Japan's full budget is comparable to Turkey's economy or Saudi Arabia's GDP. Although large, three-quarters of it is allocated to social programmes, government bond commitments and grants to local municipalities.

This leaves only about 25% of the budget to cover all another expenditure, including defence, education and research. Given these constraints, reaching 2% of GDP in defence is an absolute necessity.

If we compare China's military capabilities with the combined power of Japan and the United States, it may seem that there is simply a balance of power.

"I would not like to live under specified circumstances"

Are China the biggest threat to Japan? Recently, Japan's abroad minister hosted China, and Chinese government media presented this visit as evidence for improving relations on the Beijing-Tokyo line. On the another hand, Japan strengthens ties with the Philippines, which frequently clash with Chinese ships in the South China Sea.

The main issue is Taiwan. This island may seem small, but its area is about equal to Ireland, including Northern Ireland. In economical terms, Taiwan is besides a crucial player, and most importantly, is the world's leading maker of advanced semiconductors.

If China had annexed Taiwan, Japan would have lost its strategical buffer. This would drastically reduce Japan's geopolitical space and place it under the overwhelming influence of China. Honestly, I wouldn't want to live under these circumstances.

To prevent specified a scenario, Japan must do everything in its power to halt Chinese aggression. However, Japan cannot act alone. It must proceed to build strong partnerships with countries specified as the Philippines, India, Australia, Canada and of course the United States.

The US is simply a key origin in this arrangement. Under Donald Trump, they are guided by the American First policy. In Europe we see this with concern. There are voices that Donald Trump can retreat his forces from the continent. Will Trump be curious in bonding with Japan? Or will it reduce US engagement in the Indo-Pacific region?

That's 1 of those hypothetical questions, "what if." All over the world, people speculate about what Trump can do. Better to ask: what should Japan do to keep the United States active in the Indo-Pacific region?

Not only Japan — South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and Australia depend on the constant presence of the United States. During the gathering with Trump, the Prime Minister of Japan must make it clear:

Japan in the Trumpa 2.0 era

Speaking of the president of the United States and the duties he imposes. Do you think there will be tensions on the Tokyo-Washington line?

Certainly, especially if the United States decides to impose duties ranging from 25% to 30% on nipponese car exports. The automotive manufacture remains a crucial employer in Japan and specified duties would inevitably have a negative impact on this sector of the economy.

Having said that, Japan has already held respective trade disputes with the United States. Bilateral relations have experienced many ups and downs. My advice to nipponese leaders would be: don't exaggerate, don't make a fuss about it.

Donald Trump appears to usage customs tariffs as a tool of force on another countries to bring their policies into line with American interests. alternatively of emotionally reacting, Japan should step back and carefully measure the situation. Tokyo must proceed to remind the United States that Japan is 1 of the largest investors in the US economy and nipponese companies are key employers in the US.

Anna Moneymaker / Staff / Getty Images

US president Donald Trump hosts nipponese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Oval Office, February 7, 2025.

Given the deep strategical ties between the 2 nations, it would be unwise for the United States to exposure this key partnership to commercial disputes.

What strikes me most in our conversation is that our region of Europe and your part of the planet are facing the same problem — that is, maintaining American commitment to security. How does Japan view Russia's invasion of Ukraine and America's position regarding the threat China poses to Taiwan and Asia?

Trump's second administration, "Trump 2.0", as any call it, has not yet taken a clear stance on the strategical confrontation between the United States and China. We gotta wait and see what approach it will make.

However, it is essential that nipponese leaders cooperate actively with the United States to guarantee Taiwan's security. Interestingly, there has been a change in the U.S. diplomatic language — the U.S. State Department now refers to China as ‘chin’ alternatively than the People's Republic of China (PRC), without mentioning the full name of that country. Furthermore, Washington clearly refrained from clearly opposing Taiwan's independence.

This suggests that the United States has a position to keep Taiwan's current status. Japan shares this approach. In a fresh joint message issued by the nipponese Prime Minister and president Trump for the first time, both leaders explicitly acknowledged that China is utilizing coercion-based diplomacy.

Moreover, they committed themselves to widening Taiwan's global space, advocating its participation in global organizations. If Trump holds this position, it will be very beneficial for Japan.

“From Xi Jinping's perspective, time is simply a critical factor”

The Chinese leader Xi Jinping repeatedly reiterated that China's strategical goal of a "national renaissance" was to unite all Chinese lands. According to Beijing, this means joining Taiwan to the People's Republic of China. Do you think it's inevitable that China will effort to take over Taiwan?

There is surely a possibility. Under Xi Jinping, China is determined to take control of Taiwan. However, Beijing may effort another strategies before taking military action.

W China has had discussions about building long bridges that would physically connect Taiwan to mainland China. 2 proposed routes were considered. Beijing may hope that in time Taiwan's public opinion will change and people will begin to believe that unification is inevitable. If this happens, China could accomplish its goal without utilizing force.

From Xi Jinping's perspective, time is simply a critical factor. He holds his 3rd word as China's leader. This is an unprecedented situation. No another Chinese Communist organization president has been in power this long. Yet Xi Jinping wants to extend his regulation and safe a 4th term.

The key minute will come in 2027 — only in 2 years — erstwhile another organization convention will take place. Xi will gotta convince his political allies that he is the best leader not only for today, but for years to come. How can he do that erstwhile China's economy slows downAnd the population is falling rapidly due to 1 child's policy?

The worst script would be if the future Trump administration abruptly stated: “Taiwan is tiny compared to China. There is no realistic way Taiwan resists Chinese pressure.” If Trump had taken that position, it would have serious consequences for Japan.

For this reason, Japan must proceed to cooperate with the US administration, making it clear that maintaining the position quo of Taiwan is in the strategical interest of America.

You have repeatedly mentioned the request to strengthen the alliances that Japan has made. Has the Quadrilateral dialog (QUAD) been successful?

QUAD was an initiative led by Shinzo Abe. His close relations with leaders — specified as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Donald Trump and successive Australian Prime Ministers — played a key function in his uprising.

Although it is inactive primarily a diplomatic forum, not a formal military alliance, QUAD plays a key role. His very existence sends a message to the Chinese: you can be powerful, but you are alone. Meanwhile, we have strong partnerships and alliances.

With India, Japan, the United States and Australia cooperating, China cannot ignore the political and economical hazard of military aggression. The message for Xi Jinping is clear: be patient, do not act recklessly. Ensuring consistent reinforcement of this message will be essential for the success of QUAD.

Do they have the chance to turn into any form of Asian NATO that would argue China's influence?

I find that unlikely. ASEAN, a block of 10 states, has a crucial impact on the strategical direction of Southeast Asia. Without the engagement of key players specified as Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, any effort to make an alliance akin to NATO would be ineffective. Meanwhile, these countries are not curious in getting active in a format where the US will have a decisive voice.

Moreover, India, despite closer ties with the United States, Japan and Australia, remains very independent in its abroad policy. Although India reduces its dependence on Russian arms imports, it is improbable that they formally ally with the US military alliance.

For these reasons I don't think that "Asian NATO" will be coming soon — and surely not in my lifetime.

"Putin lost interest in improving relations"

Whether specified an organization arises or not, Japan and the full The West must deal with “eight evil 2.0”. It consists of North Korea, Russia, China and another dictatorships specified as Iran. Anne Applebaum in her latest book “Concern Autocracy” claims that military cooperation between these countries is only part of the problem. The key is the clash between dictatorships and democracies around the world. Cooperation is about extracting natural materials, circumventing sanctions, starting fresh business contracts, etc. How does Japan, which is adjacent to the 3 regimes mentioned above, view this threat?

This is simply a large concern for us. North Korea is developing its rocket technology at an alarming rate — faster than many expected. It besides develops atomic warheads faster than previously thought.

These advances do not take place in isolation. North Korea receives technological assistance from external sources and we have reasonable suspicion that Russia is 1 of them.

Let us not forget that North Korea has besides engaged in state-sponsored abductions of nipponese citizens. 1 of the most celebrated cases is simply a girl who was kidnapped at the age of 13 in 1977. He's 61 today. Her father died and her mother, now 89, is inactive waiting for her return.

However, despite this tragic and unresolved issue, North Korea even refuses to meet nipponese officials. This is just 1 example of many complex challenges that North Korea poses to Japan's safety and stability.

What about Russia? The past of Japanese-Russian relations is long and complicated. 1 of the main issues is territorial disputes about islands. What is the diplomatic situation between Tokyo and Moscow?

In judo terminology, there is simply a word “hikiwake”, which means a match ending in a draw — neither winning nor losing. Russian president Vladimir Putin, himself a judo farmer, erstwhile utilized this word during discussions on Russian-Japanese relations.

For a time there was hope for progress. Shinzo Abe and Putin met personally and spoke on the telephone at least 28 times. frequently these were one-on-one conversations.

KIM KYUNG-HOON / Pool / Getty Images

Vladimir Putin and Shinzo Abe at the G20 summit in Osaka, 2019.

Both leaders frequently said: “If not now, then when? If not us, then who?” — signaling a common desire to resolve long-term disputes, in peculiar concerning the 4 northern islands occupied by russian forces after Japan capitulated during planet War II. However, it seems that at any point Putin lost interest in improving relations.

From a territorial point of view, these northern islands were taken by russian forces after Japan had already agreed to ceasefire with the Allies. This was a clear violation of global law. However, the anticipation that Russia will, in the past or now, abide by global standards is wishful thinking.

For Shinzo Abe, the solution to the territorial dispute was not only to regain land — it was besides about Japan’s long - word strategical position. As Arctic ice melts The Northern Maritime way is becoming increasingly profitable for commercial shipping. If Japan could establish its exclusive economical zones in the north, it would strengthen its strategical position in the emerging Arctic trade network.

“Japan faces a hard dilemma”

Shinzo Abe's lead thought was to strengthen Japan internationally. So what should Tokyo invest in to accomplish this goal? What areas should be the most focused?

The military force of the country cannot be separated from its economical strength. Japan's GDP growth remains slow — about 2 to 3 percent per year — while China, even erstwhile its economy slows down, continues to grow at about 5 percent.

The economy increasing at 5% per year will double its size in 14 years. Japan is in a worse position and in order to build a stronger army, it must first strengthen itself in this area. However, given a decreasing and ageing population of JapanHow can this be achieved? This is the key question that the government must answer.

Under the fresh leadership of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiby, the government must focus on reviving the economy. Power must instill a sense of hope among young people, encouraging them to have greater aspirations and to tolerate risks. Only with a prosperous economy can Japan afford to invest in its future military capabilities.

Japan must prioritise innovation. 1 of the most crucial lessons of the war in Ukraine is that drones and autonomous weapons systems have become factors that change the rules of the game on the battlefield.

Did Japan draw conclusions and invest adequate resources in artificial intelligence, drones and another modern technologies?

Unfortunately, no, Japan has not allocated adequate to these areas. However, it is not besides late to change course. The focus must be on economical regeneration, technological innovation in defence and expanding its diplomatic reach.

As a country on the edge of the Eurasian mainland, Japan is heavy dependent on maritime trade routes. If these maritime routes were always disrupted — most likely by China — the nipponese economy would endure enormously. To minimize this risk, we request to strengthen ties with partners with akin views.

Is nipponese society aware of the request to invest in its defence? Will it be hard for the government to force these changes?

Public awareness is growing, but it will be highly hard to make changes. If we compare the money spent by the United States on the military with what Japan spends on welfare, then nipponese welfare spending is even higher. And they will grow with the ageing generation of demographic booms.

Japan's citizens over 75 are presently receiving additional medical support funded by the government. With the expanding number of people entering this age group, Japan faces a hard dilemma of balancing the request to support the older population with the request to strengthen national defence.

This will be a delicate and politically delicate issue for all democratically elected government. However, regardless of these challenges, Japan must face real safety needs.

“Who better than Poland could do that?”

Consider the black script of rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait. say China is trying to invade or impose an economical blockade on the island, trying to cut it off from supplies. Would Japan be forced to engage in Taiwan's defense?

Under global law, the blockade is considered an act of war. If China had blocked Taiwan, the United States would almost surely have intervened militarily. According to the revised nipponese defence regulations, Tokyo could act in agreement with its military ally, the United States.

However, China besides has another means of exerting pressure. For example, they could keep a permanent presence of ships and military aircraft around Taiwan, creating an atmosphere of intimidation. This could disrupt commercial shipping and hinder the American Navy from operating in the region.

Polish abroad Minister Radosław Sikorski late visited Japan. What is the common interest of our countries? Is it seen in Japan that Poland spends about 5% of its GDP on defence?

In any Western European countries, specified as Italy, there have been voices that Ukraine should search a ceasefire. People argued that the war was unwinnable for Kiev. However, in Poland the social moods were definitely different. Poles powerfully demonstrated their unwavering commitment to Ukraine's victory.

Poland can make a crucial contribution to global discussions on global security, not only by sharing observations on the ongoing war in Ukraine, but besides by offering a valuable position on the region of Central Europe.

Diplomatic high-level meetings between nipponese and Polish leaders are important. Finally, the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will require considerable global support, and Japan has already expressed its willingness to engage in these efforts.

However, in order for Japan to play its function effectively, it needs a conscious and credible partner to aid it decision in complex realities of Central Europe. Who could do this better than Poland, i.e. supply strategical guidance for Tokyo? Polish leaders have deep cognition of the situation in Ukraine, and their observations will be invaluable in shaping Japan's approach to engagement in Europe.

How do you view the current nipponese government? Can he cope with complex global challenges?

As a individual who worked closely with the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, I sincerely hope that Japan will have a leader as strong and determined as he has. But I'm not optimistic. The current administration is 1 of the weakest in fresh history. She has already lost most in the lower chamber — more influential of the 2 nipponese legislative chambers.

In July elections to the advanced home are scheduled. fewer political analysts in Tokyo anticipate the ruling coalition to win decisively. This means that for at least the next fewer years Japan will be led by a politically unstable government. The weak administration will inevitably find it hard to make courageous decisions on abroad policy, military strategy and economical reforms.

Abe's leadership was defined by a clear strategical imagination and the ability to accomplish long-term political objectives. Unfortunately, Japan is presently lacking specified a strong leader. Given the increasing geopolitical challenges facing Japan, this is simply a serious origin for concern.

Is there a hazard that Tokyo will become more passive in global matters?

It's a very real risk. The planet is increasing rapidly, and the dynamics of global power is changing. Japan cannot afford complacency.

Under Abe, Japan actively shaped its abroad policy — strengthening alliances, redefining regional safety within the Indo-Pacific and deepening ties with countries specified as India and Australia. These were not just reactive policies but strategical initiatives to safeguard long-term national interests.

If Japan becomes passive due to weak leadership, it will harm not only itself but besides destabilise the Indo-Pacific region. Tokyo must proceed to act as a stabilising force in global matters, whether in terms of security, economical policy or diplomatic engagement.

What advice would you give to the next generation of nipponese leaders?

Above all, the future rulers must adopt a clear, long-term strategical vision. The challenges facing Japan present — China's expanding assertiveness, Taiwan's security, the changing function of the United States, economical stagnation and demographic decline — will not be resolved overnight. They require consistent and decisive leadership.

Secondly, Japan must proceed to invest in strengthening its alliances. Although the Japanese-American safety partnership remains the cornerstone of the nipponese defence policy, it itself has ceased to be sufficient. Japan must proceed to grow its strategical partnership network, not only in Asia, but besides with countries specified as Poland that have akin safety concerns.

Finally, nipponese leaders must support growth and innovation. Without Japan's strong economy, we will deficiency the essential resources to keep a credible defensive stance. Tokyo must prioritise technological progress, the improvement of defence manufacture and increased productivity to guarantee long-term economical and national security.

The planet is undergoing profound changes. If Japan is to safe its future, its leaders must face challenges.