W Iran's been boiling for 2 months. Is the Ayatollah government about to fall?

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Several 100 deaths, thousands injured, respective 1000 arrested. This is simply a tragic balance of repression against participants of 2 months of protests in Iran. “Woman, life, freedom” is their theme. The planet revolves around pictures of burning hijabs, women cutting their hair in a motion of solidarity, yet examples of the brutality of the Iranian regime. The spark that started the speeches was the execution of a young girl.

September 13, 2021. The 22-year-old Mahs (or, in principle, Zina) Amini, from the western Iranian town of Saghghez, is visiting his brother, in the country's capital, multimillion-dollar Tehran. The car-traveling siblings are detained by the moral police, which arrests Amini on charges of besides loose attachment of a mandatory scarf for women. The girl dies of arrest, officially from a heart attack. No 1 believes in the authoritative version. Mahsa Amini was brutally tortured during the interrogation. Her death after 3 days of detention or, in principle, capture, causes an detonation of tremendous layers of social anger.

Forced hijab is the everyday life of Iran

Protesters argue the conservative law that obliges Iran women to block their hair. In practice, for respective years, especially young women from large cities have left their scarves increasingly, revealing their hairstyles. It's the most common customized police have turned a blind eye. Unfortunately, there has been an increase in enforcement of this provision for about a year. The protests met with a violent consequence from the Iranian authority apparatus, for which all forms of civilian disobedience constitute an existential threat. Many Iranians have had enough. No more violence, no more absurd rules to prevent the enjoyment of life, the hypocrisy of the all-powerful Shiite clergy. Under the cloak of authoritative anti-Americanism and pseudostatistician speaking of over 99% of muslim society, there are conscious, ambitious and modern people, suppressed by censorship and net blockades. People in Iran are in contact with the interior world, but many are afraid of the consequences they might have had for just expressing their opinion: "A fewer days ago (services) they took my ID, if they found out that I was talking to journalists, I would go to jail" – so we were told by an anti-government resident of 1 of the Iranian cities. It is much easier to talk to representatives of the many and politically active diaspora of Iran.

"You'll go to hell and hang on this strand"

Yasmin, was born and raised in Tehran, where she lived until she was 14. He's been surviving in Toronto, Canada always since. “I am devastated by what is happening in my country. In Iran we frequently lead 2 lives – at home we hatred regimes and most frequently we do not follow the principles of religion, outside, we hide ourselves as women, we cannot walk with an unconnected man, due to the fact that for all these things the police can arrest us. This is not just a question of hijab, it affects all area of life" says Yasmin's ongoing protests. erstwhile asked about the utmost enragement of ongoing protests, she replies: “I am glad that people are protesting and do not give in to violent repression of the regime. all day the government pushes us more and more – late they arrested a well-known rapper-oppositionist, threatens to execute him, a fewer weeks ago they set fire to the prison for intelligence, where they repress educated opponents of power.” Yasmin convinces that people are angry and mostly want the government to leave, “in 43 years they took us 1,400 years into the past”, he adds with a snack. It besides recalls that the Ajatollah government has a long tradition of violent dealing with opponents – "their governments began with the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people following the revolution and subsequent war with Iraq". I asked Yasmin to describe her childhood in Iran, she admitted that it was frequently associated with fear: "You are accustomed to strict rules. There are secret parties at home, but if the police hear music, they can raid and treat anyone like a criminal. In the course of Ramadan, you must not smoke or chew gum, there are penalties specified as whips. I couldn't have a boyfriend. We do not believe and hatred these principles.” The education strategy is besides problematic. Schools in Iran are not co-educational – “Learning there, you learn to whisper and hide well. If you want to talk about boys or sex – you gotta do it secretly, the same erstwhile you want to organization or drink alcohol. At school, we were told to sing anti-American slogans, we knew it was bullshit, but we had to comply. From the beginning of education we had to cover our hair, even if according to the principles of religion it is advisable for girls over 9 years of age," Yasmin describes. Paranoia of sex segregation is strong adequate in Iran that erstwhile Yasmin's father 1 day walked her to school, his teachers accused him of coming just to watch them. “I have 1 peculiar memory from school days: My spiritual teacher told me that “if you show your hair to a stranger, you will go to hell and hang forever on this strand of hair”. For my seven-year-old head it was very absurd, due to the fact that this hair would not hold me,” my interviewor recalls. In school, many subjects are dedicated to religion, and they are forced to teach Arabic (from the point of view of the Indo-European Farsi Persian language not very useful). Real Iranian past and culture are censored and rewritten. Yasmin has lived in Canada for years, where the Iranian diaspora actively protests, organizes happenings and operates in social media. Unfortunately, in her homeland, net exclusion and censorship are on the agenda, over 90% of the pages are under government control. People frequently usage VPNs: “We are conscious and not like North Korea. We know the truth. Most families besides have members surviving abroad," Yasmin notes.

83-year-old top leader, no successor

Iran was not always a land of theocratic power. The current situation is simply a legacy of the 1979 muslim Revolution, which overturned the autocratic chess monarchy of Mohammad Reza Pahlawa and launched a 5th decade of socio-political experiment, which is the "Islamic republic". What is the nature of this system? This combination of the presidential strategy (the president elects citizens) with the theocratic form of government, headed by the ultimate leader, colloquially called "ajatollah" (ajatollah is simply a prestigious technological title in Shiite Islam, awarded to scholars). The ultimate Leader is elected for life by the “College of Experts”, a collegiate body composed of 88 clergy. So far, post-Strevolution Iran was ruled by 2 "ajatollahs": between 1979 and 1989, the celebrated Ruhollah Chomejni, while for 33 years the country has been headed by its successor, the age-old Ali Chamenei (now 83 years old and severely ill). Interestingly, we inactive don't know who could win him. Strong candidates are missing. The political strategy of the erstwhile Persia, however, is not invariable: "The muslim Republic of Iran in 1979 or even in 1999, compared with 2022 are 2 different countries," noted Prof. UAM's specialist in the mediate East, Dr. Przemysław Osiewicz. It points to existing periods of liberalisation (although the presidency of Mohammad Chatami), alternately with the tightening of the discourse and the "renaissance" of revolutionary ideas (rules of Chatami's successor – Ahmadinejad). The erstwhile president, Hassan Rouhani, was besides considered a Liberal, removed from politics in 2021. erstwhile asked about the credibility of the regime's propaganda in society, Prof. Osiewicz has no doubt: “The political elite of Iran are disconnected from reality. Young people who do not remember chess times, live stories of their grandparents and parents, besides have access to social media or Iranian tv channels broadcast from California, for example. The planet they see there is colorful, sunny, free, completely different from what they know from their homeland. Young Iranians want to live usually due to the fact that they see how their peers live in another countries." The ongoing protests are not simply caused by the social discord imposed by power, the orthodox model of social life: “I note a certain resemblance of the current protests to the beginnings of the 1978-79 revolution. No 1 expected that anger over the release of an article insulting Khomeini, exacerbated by the deaths of protests would lead to the overthrow of chess. It can be akin now, especially as the socio-economic situation of Iran is very difficult," adds Prof. Osiewicz. Indeed, a multi-percent unemployment rate, close to 60% inflation (which is already eligible under the category of hyperinflation) or western sanctions that hinder economical improvement – the situation of Iran is unenviable. Desperate and "earthed" power will cling to its positions, resorting to increasingly violent methods. "The guards of the revolution are the best armed armed armed formation in Iran, they are the people who will defend the strategy to the end, due to the fact that at the time of its possible collapse they will lose everything," the prof. confirms.

It's a circle. At first glance, inconspicuous events decision masses, overthrow regimes, change boundaries. Mahsa Amini became a symbol of the conflict for women's freedom and rights. Even if the protests stop, the Iranians won't forget her. The gin has already left the bottle and has no intention of returning to it. He's gonna break her.

Green Casper

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