Game pass

The conversation took place in late March, during inspections of Belarusian troops on the border with Lithuania, and the recording itself was made public in the Telegram communicator. It appeared on the "Pul Pierwogo" channel, akin to the Lukashenko press services. The subject is not new. The slide for at least 2 years has been 1 of the favourite motifs of prokremlian propaganda. On the 1 hand, it is regarded as a symbol of NATO's aggressive attitude, on the other, as its soft underbelly – territory which the troops of Russia and Belarus can occupy practically from the march. Of course, if they get provoked earlier. inexpensive catch? Or should the Alliance be on guard?

The slide is simply a narrow belt of territory on the border between Poland and Lithuania. It separates Belarus and Russia's princely region. “In the narrowest place, the borders of these countries divide in a consecutive line only 65 km,” emphasises prof. Krzysztof Fedorowicz, a political scientist from Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, and at the same time a elder analyst at the Lublin Institute of Central Europe. In 2015, Gen. Benjamin Hodges, the then commander of the U.S. land troops in Europe, called the pass 1 of the most inflamed points on the planet map, indicating that an open conflict between Russia and NATO could erupt there. – Through the corridor leads the only land connection from central Europe to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. If Russia masters it, it will cut off the supply and military assistance of 3 members of the Alliance – reminds Prof. Fedorowicz. Although the adoption of Sweden and Finland to NATO has improved the geostrategic situation of the Baltic States, the problem has not completely solved. "The Alliance has more opportunities to transfer supplies by sea if necessary, but I would be far from saying that the Baltic has become an interior NATO basin. Russia inactive has its bases there, has retained operational capabilities and, in the event of war, may effort to block shipping routes," the analyst believes. “In my opinion, the extension of NATO to the north has not in any way lowered the importance of the Suwałki gulf,” he adds.

Military exercises “Brave Griffin” at a training ground in the Olympic area of Lithuania, April 2024.

The members of the Alliance seem to realize this perfectly. In 2017, under the provisions of the Warsaw Summit, 4 multinational conflict groups (eFP) were deployed in north-eastern Poland and the Baltic States. 5 years later, at the Madrid summit, a decision was made to enlarge it to the size of the brigades. The Polish Army besides strengthens its possible in the area of the Suwałki Pass. The command of the 16th Pomeranian Mechanized Division was transferred to Olsztyn from Białobrzegów. Tactical unions and subdivisions that form part of it are located in different parts of Mazury and Suwałszczyzna. fresh equipment, specified as K2 tanks and K9. The 18th Mechanized Division is besides stationed close the borders with Belarus and Russia, and shortly it should be joined by the 1st Legion Infantry Division formed in Mazowsze. To this should be added respective 1000 soldiers from the Military Task Force “Podlas” who are stationed in this delicate area on a rotation basis.

A peculiar Polish-Lithuanian plan “Orsza” was created with a view to defending the Suwałki pass any time ago. It was his assumptions that were utilized in the script of the "Brave Griffin 24/II" exercise. In April, 1.5 1000 soldiers and 200 pieces of equipment from 4 NATO states went to the ground camp close Druskinnik.

The "Grifin Shock" exercise at the camp in Bemów Piski was a confirmation of the North Atlantic Alliance's readiness to defend NATO's east flank.

What can argue the Alliance's possible opponent? Not much. “Belarusian army has about 40–50,000 soldiers, but 1 3rd of them are ready to participate in any military activity,” says Kamil Kłysiński, analyst of the Center for east Studies. The Belarusians deficiency modern equipment. The weaponry, which represented more value, had long gone to Russia. The army has a low morale, and most troops are alternatively inactive under-trained," he says. A lone attack on NATO territory for the Lukashenko troops would mean suicide. Belarusian subdivisions can at most supply any support for Russia, but Putin is stuck in Ukraine. Not only did the Kremlin not increase the number of troops close the Suwałki gulf, it was besides forced to shift a large condition of them to the front.

Plus for defense

But that is not the end. – The sliding pass due to terrain conditions is much more conducive to possible defence than to attack. This applies especially to the Polish part of it – emphasizes prof. Fedorowicz. – It is simply a hilly area, mostly covered with forests, rich in lakes. Main roads lead from the south to the north, i.e. from Poland to Lithuania. The routes that military columns could pass from Belarus to the royal circuit are much less," he adds.

A somewhat different situation exists in the northern part of the corridor. – Lithuania and Belarus were erstwhile part of 1 state organism – ZSRS. The road network between these countries is so comparatively coherent. Lithuanian and Belarusian railways inactive usage rails that are wider than the 1 in central and western Europe," explains Prof. Fedorowicz. This theoretically speaks in favour of a possible aggressor. However, as the experts point out, the hazard of attacking the slide is low at the moment. And now the visions that NATO will bring the first blow out of there, should be inserted among fairy tales. Why, then, are Belarusian and Russian propaganda besides eager to play this card? – It is about heating up tension, trying to sow chaos, but besides consolidating our own societies in the face of alleged threat. The fresh efforts of Lukashenko are an excellent example. The more tacky and inconsistent its message, the more likely it was prepared for interior use, says Kłysiński. – Belarus remains entirely dependent on Russia. After the fraudulent 2020 presidential election, however, Lukashenko tries in all way to legitimize her power in the eyes of citizens. He seeks to strengthen the image of a strong leader, a leader who depends on the safety and stableness of Belarus," he adds.

International exercises "Brave Griffin '24".

In the meantime, prof. Fedorowicz draws attention to another aspect. – The rhetoric of Lukashenka can be calculated to convince Putin that Belarusian troops are needed on the border with Poland. Just to follow NATO's movements. This is how he tries to dismiss the imagination of sending his troops to the front. Putin could usage it, but for Lukashenko herself it could mean a disaster. Belarusian society does not want war. The weak army would most likely be broken up quickly, and thus 1 of the pillars on which the full Lukashenko strategy was based would collapse,” says Prof. Fedorowicz. This does not mean that erstwhile you think of the Suwałki pass, the native losses may feel calm.

You want peace...

– The Polish-Lithuanian borderlands may not be conducive to offensives of dense brigades, but, unfortunately, are comparatively convenient for diversion and hybrid activities – says Prof. Dariusz Kozerawski, safety expert at the Jagiellonian University, the colonel of the reserve. – Lesisto-lake terrain possibly creates good conditions for the operation of peculiar troops, reconnaissance, light infantry, peculiar services. In theory, specified groups could operate in an area that reaches up to tens of kilometres deep into the Polish territory, and their detection and neutralisation would require the engagement of large, professionally prepared forces – he adds. Of course, the effectiveness of specified infiltration is less, the more crucial it is to defender the Suwałki gulf both Poland and NATO. And it's not just about military numbers. Infrastructure is besides important. In mid-May 2024 Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the launch of a multi-annual programme to build fortifications, ground obstacles and bunker lines at borders with Belarus and Russia. To make the alleged Shield East, the state plans to allocate PLN 10 billion.

Meanwhile, as prof. Kozerawski emphasizes, we inactive have quite a few work to do. It's a good move, but we request more. We must, for example, train reserves or make capacity to rapidly receive and deploy on the east flank much more NATO troops than now. In order to do so, at least the right backdrop needs to be taken care of by the alleged host nation, the host state. The next challenge already concerns the Alliance as a full and involves a fast strengthening of the capabilities of the arms industry. Especially erstwhile it comes to the production of ammunition, says the expert. This is crucial in the context of events in Russia. Putin switched the economy to war mode. fresh changes in the defence department there may mean that in the long word it takes seriously the investigating of NATO's readiness, and peculiarly the ability of the east flank states to respond to various forms of aggression. In this context, it would be the task of the fresh minister to decently balance arms spending, which absorb as much as 40% of the budget. Finally, Andrei Bielousov is an economist – reminds Prof. Kozerawski.

For the time being, the conflict for a sliding pass, which could be an introduction to an open NATO-Russia confrontation, remains only a propaganda construct. A bigger and more real problem is the next installments of the migration crisis, which Lukashenko, most likely in agreement with Putin, caused on the Polish-Belarusian border. However, the Alliance must be prepared for any eventuality. – Russia can concentrate crucial forces on Belarus, even under the appearance of exercises, and then deploy them, for example, in the vicinity of Grodna. The camp ends virtually a fewer kilometres from the borders of Poland – explains Prof. Kozerawski.

Such a script seems improbable at the moment. At least until Putin settles the war on Ukraine. However, NATO decision-makers must not for a minute forget the old maxim: “Si vis pacem, para bellum” – “You want peace, prepare for war...”. present it inactive stands.