Written by Tyler Durden
The fresh Israeli rocket fire from Iran showed a safety reality that amazed many people in the West – the Israeli defence strategy "The Iron Dome" is not as effective as it was thought. Evidence suggests that it was clearly overwhelmed, either by the number of missiles themselves (estimations vary, but at least 200 were fired), or by fresh Iranian hypersonic technology. Anyway, this 1 attack has changed the prevailing position of Israeli air defense.
Media and government officials claim that the Iranian salva was "ineffective" and have not yet been informed of any casualties, but from many films circulating on social media it is clear that dozens of strokes caused extended damage. Israel is improbable to admit to any successful attacks as it would only supply Iran with valuable intelligence information, but utilizing geolocation and existing online recordings, this will not take long for Iran's military leaders to find out what worked and what did not.
The escalation from Iran was a consequence to a carefully planned run of Israeli assassinations against military leaders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, including Hassan Nasrallah. The attack, which utilized pagers sabotaged by secretly planted explosives, then ended with targeted rocket attacks. This event took place only 2 months after Israel murdered Hamas' leader, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was on Iranian soil.
There are 2 ways to look at Israel's strategy: it was an effort to overthrow enemy leadership and bring its forces into chaos to avoid greater war. Or it was to infuriate Iran and bring him into a greater war.
If the second option were true, Israel would gotta act on the presumption that the US would supply military forces for the fight, as Israel would not be able to last war on many fronts on its own.
In the past Israel relied on its advantage in arms to deter possible attacks from its neighbours, but this difference is of course decreasing, as we have seen in the case of Iranian rocket attacks this week. Lessons from Ukraine should besides be taken into account here – Israeli tanks may no longer be as present on the battlefield as they erstwhile were, if inexpensive drones are as effective in destroying much more costly tanks.
In 2006, Israel attempted a land invasion of Lebanon with disastrous consequences, most likely why it struck Hezbollah leaders first. However, Israel seems determined to fight the full mediate East at once, which dramatically changes the situation.
The ground game, as we have seen in Ukraine, is not conducive to maneuver warfare due to drones and another modern intelligence gathering technologies. The nations with the top workforce have a considerable advantage in terms of the war to exhaustion, and it is likely that this war will be waged. Iran itself has considerable numbers over Israel.
If we look at the basic population, Iran has a immense advantage with over 88 million people compared to 9.5 million Israel, but Lebanon, Syria, the Hutichs in Yemen, etc. Iran's ability to replenish its forces with fresh recruits through military conscription will surely outweigh Israel's conscription. We saw it again in the case of Russian troops in Ukraine.
No technology (except possibly atomic weapons) would equal the odds and would not give Israel the chance to win the land war on many fronts. That means the Israelis will request an allied effort and guess which country is the only candidate for this task?
Joe Biden stated After the Iranian attacks:
"Do not be misled, the United States is fully, fully, full supportive of Israel..."
When asked how he would like Israel to react, Biden said that it was a substance of "active discussion" and that the consequences for Tehran "will only turn out". Kamala Harris released her own message in which she supported Biden's position:
"Iran is not only a threat to Israel, Iran is besides a threat to American personnel in the region, American interests and innocent civilians throughout the region who are suffering at the hands of Iran-based and supported terrorists. We will never hesitate to take all essential measures to defend US forces and interests against Iran and terrorists supported by Iran, and we will proceed to work with our allies and partners to disrupt Iran's aggressive behaviour and hold him accountable.
These statements are part of a joint military exercise and war game in fresh months under the name "Juniper Oak". The program was designed to prepare for the inevitable war between Israel and the wider mediate East and requires American forces to participate in the air, sea and land.
For those millions of Americans who want to stay distant from abroad wars and entanglements, the situation does not look good. For those who wonder what October's surprise will be, the war against Iran and most of the mediate East can be the blow everyone has been waiting for.
This may as well turn the November presidential elections upside down and change the election scenery again. Even with Trump Biden's win, he has plenty of time to engage the US in the war with Iran before leaving office in 2025. Harris' camp argues that changing leadership and politics in the fog of the geopolitical crisis would be detrimental to US security. In another words, they drag America into a swamp in the mediate East and then claim that this swamp requires them to stay in office.
Translated by Google Translator
Source:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolistic/
