Is Zelensky's Chief Of Staff The Last Obstacle To Peace With Russia?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Bloomberg published article on Friday titled “Ukraine’s Allies Are Worried About the Power of Zelenskiy’s Top Aide”, Andrey Yermak, who’s become the second most powerful person in the country over the past two and a half years and perhaps even more powerful than Zelensky according to some. They cited what’s portrayed as “a common quip among Ukrainians” to claim that “He’s not number one, but he’s not number two either”, thus reinforcing perceptions of him as Ukraine’s grey cardinal.

That’s not unfounded either since the article begins by describing him as “the sole gatekeeper to the president with a direct say in everything from foreign policy to military planning.” Additionally, “Yermak’s rise has been accompanied by the fall of many others near the top — a parliamentary speaker, a central bank governor and his predecessor as chief of staff among them — often at the hands of the top aide”. He also seems to revel in being the power behind the throne and wants everyone to know it.

As Bloomberg phrased it, “His social media profile is replete with one-on-one images of Yermak with Pope Francis, French President Emmanuel Macron and others — often with his boss nowhere in sight. A June 7 post on his Telegram channel showed Yermak shaking hands with US President Joe Biden, while Zelenskiy nearby greeted Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin — a protocol reversal that triggered wry commentary in Kyiv.”

According to their sources, “The power dynamic is a serious matter for NATO allies and international donors — including the European Union and the International Monetary Fund — who have made transparency a benchmark condition for transferring funds.” They apparently worry that “any further tightening among Zelenskiy and his inner circle could sap energy for badly needed reforms — even measures to fight corruption and bolster the rule of law.”

The reality though is that there isn’t sincere concern about transparency and reforms in Ukraine, with this only being the pretext for pressuring Zelensky to not heed Yermak’s advice all that much anymore. That’ll be a challenge though since “He’s been central in every key wartime decision: replacing Zelenskiy’s top general, sourcing weapons supplies, negotiating security guarantees, overseeing prisoner swaps and — at the Swiss summit — winning over the Global South to Kyiv’s cause.”

In any case, this observation raises the question of why the West wants to drive a wedge between these two, whose relationship was compared by unnamed officials to a chief executive officer and chairman, with Yermak playing the first role and Zelensky the second. The context within which Bloomberg’s article was published, which included comments from Yermak himself per an interview that they just conducted with him, involves Ukraine’s latest signals that it might be semi-serious about resuming peace talks.

Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba visited Beijing in late July and then Kiev Mayor Vitaly Klitschko speculated that Zelensky might put the issue of territorial compromises with Russia up to a referendum, both of which were correspondingly analyzed here and here. Zelensky then tacitly confirmed Klitschko’s speculation in an interview with French media last week when he wouldn’t rule out a referendum after saying that the people’s will is required to change the constitution in order to allow such a scenario.

Yermak would be against that though since Bloomberg mentioned that “[his] more recent diplomatic foray has been as the architect of Ukraine’s peace blueprint, which aims to bring allies outside the West on board with Kyiv’s demands to end the war before a negotiation process with a more isolated Russia begins.” Holding a referendum on territorial compromises with Russia and then formally acknowledging the cession of Ukrainian land if it passes would represent the failure of everything that he worked for.

This isn’t conjecture either since Bloomberg reported that “The encounters with Kremlin officials (during his time as Ukraine’s chief negotiator in the Minsk process) earned Yermak a reputation for taking uncompromising positions in the diplomatic process, often viewing the world in black and white, according to people familiar with the discussions with Russian officials.” Simply put, he’s a radical ideologue, and such people are impossible to negotiate with since they flat-out refuse to compromise.

Given his enormous ego as proven by the photos that he shares of himself with world leaders, “often with his boss nowhere in sight” as Bloomberg reminded everyone, it’s possible that he might try to sabotage this process up to the point of potentially trying to replace Zelensky. Regardless of whether or not he tries that, it’s unlikely that he’d let his legacy be lost without going down fighting, and he could cause all sorts of trouble if he really wants to such as encouraging a Neo-Nazi revolt for example.

With this in mind, if the US is finally warming up to the scenario of Ukraine resuming peace talks with Russia as seems to be the case, then it follows that they’d want to preemptively neutralize Yermak’s meddling capability. To that end, it makes sense for unnamed official sources to contribute to a hit piece against him in collaboration with Bloomberg so as to pressure Zelensky into not heeding his advice all that much anymore, particularly regarding any second thoughts that he might have about a referendum.

As “the sole gatekeeper to the president”, who’s so close to Zelensky that he “even used to join the couple on overseas holidays before the war”, his views on the matter can make all the difference. He’s won’t agree to this though since he’s “the architect of Ukraine’s peace blueprint” so that’s why the US is gently making its move ahead of time in order to seed the information space with speculation about his true intentions. This includes implying that he wants to replace Zelensky or already believes that he has.

If Zelensky quietly stops talking about a referendum or starts aggressively pushing back against such proposals, then that would be proof of Yermak’s pernicious influence, let alone if this coincides with another purge that strengthens his position even more than it already is by removing pragmatic figures. As was hinted by Bloomberg, this could be exploited as the pretext for more openly pressuring Zelensky on the grounds that it creates an unfriendly environment for transparency and reforms.

These false bases could then justify withholding debt relief from Ukraine as it approaches bankruptcy, the state of which might be reached sooner than later after Zelensky just passed a law suspending payments to Western creditors for two months in order to avoid defaulting. Money talks, and Ukraine needs it more than ever, so that could be held above his head to get him to go through with holding a referendum in spite of Yermak’s resistance (provided that the West is truly ready for peace, that is).

It’s too early to predict exactly what might happen as regards the timing and details of the aforementioned scenario, but it’s no small matter that a Western Mainstream Media outlet as influential as Bloomberg just published a hit piece about Yermak with all the unsavory details that it included. This strongly suggests that the US at the very least wants to reduce Yermak’s influence over Zelensky, likely with a view towards facilitating the resumption of peace talks, which he fiercely opposes.