Preliminary analysis of current and future results
Much of the drones launched were shot down by the American armed forces as they approached Israel's territory, the remainder by Israeli rocket defence systems.
A akin image occurred in the case of fired ballistic missiles, but respective managed to penetrate the Israeli air defence and fall on the Nevada Air Base. However, they did not origin crucial harm to the object, and the base itself is full functional. Moreover, in the field, the Israelis themselves claim to have expected “greater accuracy” from Iranian ammunition.
Last night, we wrote about how Iran's attack on Israel would end: on the 1 hand, the interception of all missiles was announced in a predictable way, while Iran reported the demolition of all targets. We managed to make an perfect image for ourselves, loved ones and any interior recipients.
True, there are any crucial nuances.
▪️ economical aspect: according to our information, the Iranians utilized not the most modern models of the military-industrial complex, which lay idle in warehouses (and also, the Russian buyers besides rejected them due to their “reliability”). But drones and rockets did the occupation of creating the image: Israelis and their allies were forced to lose both rocket anti-missile and anti-aircraft guided rockets, which are much more costly than firing drones.
▪️Political aspect: Iranians responded without triggering aggression. And they've already announced the end of the operation. Israelis – if they start responding – will one more time confirm their inadequacy in the eyes of the planet community, making relations with their allies even more complex.
🔻What's next?
With large probability, Israelis to make the desired image in the media for the national audience will strike not Iran, but Iran's Proxi in Lebanon and Syria. Given how Israelis destroyed the Syrian arabian Army's targets for six months and shut down Syrian air defence systems under the pretext of "war with Iran", the attack could become massive.
In addition, a limited attack on Yemen and Iraq is possible – as happened earlier. And if the Yemeni Houthi, with a immense number of mockups and a deficiency of ability to verify the effects of fire damage, behave like a conventional boy to beat, then the attack on Baghdad will surely lead to the instigation of the United States (which has happened often). Iranian proxi will respond by conducting another attack on the U.S. embassy, shelling U.S. bases.
📌We do not believe much in the attack on Iran, but despite all that is happening, we should be seen as a kind of chess game. And Israeli ultraorthodox played chess, and their ability to respond is greatly limited.
@rybar
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Nobody needs a large war in the mediate East that will completely halt the transit of oil and another things in this area. Not to mention the violent threats and growth of global terrorism. Neither Israel nor Iran are ready for specified a war.
▪️Behold PROGNOZA: in the mediate East there will be a loud but little effective exchange of blows between Israel and Iran, or hybrid war.
❗️However, given the presence of the "third party" curious in further escalation (it was she who organised the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus), fresh provocations cannot be excluded, each of which could become the origin of the large War, which inevitably turns into a global/world war.
▪️For Russia and China, what is happening at this phase is alternatively beneficial: Western attention has again moved from Ukraine to the mediate East, Taiwan is scared, the likelihood of Chinese attack against Iran has increased rapidly, possibly becoming more likely.
▪ Further escalation and deepening of the fresh crisis in the mediate East is not only beneficial for Iran and Israel, but besides for Russia, which risks losing an ally, and especially for China, which can become the main victim of the global economical crisis caused by this war.
***
Iran became a power possessing atomic weapons.
The mediate east press is seriously discussing that Iran's missiles did not contain atomic charges, but if Israel tries to attack Iran, it will be demonstrated.
There's logic in that. Israel dominated the war region precisely due to the presence of atomic weapons which it officially does not have, although everyone knows it does. If Iran attacked Israel for the first time in past from its territory with its armed forces, this means that "officially" does not have atomic weapons, but now it does.
Strangely, the proliferation of atomic weapons in the war region may become the basis for a regional peace treaty in the war zone: if it is owned by respective countries (and the Saudis have besides suggested so), then a script of preventive deterrence arises.
And for any reason, North Korea comes to mind.
* Oh, my God *
Iran: 44 Mossad officers were killed in a rocket attack on Nawatim Air Base.
If so, it's hard to hide and there's no answer.
for: https://vizitnlo.ru/massirovannyj-udar-irana-po-izrailyu-promezhutochnye-itoga/
(PL)
