Each day, about 21 million barrels of oil go to global markets — is about a 5th of planet production. Commercial ships must besides pass through the Ormuz Strait. About 20% of global LNG supplies besides go through this strategical route.
Gerrit Heinemann, prof. of Economics, Management and Trade at the Niederrhein Higher School in Monchengladbach calls the consequences of the possible blockade of the Strait of Ormuz “catastrophic”. In his opinion, the effects of the permanent crisis would be even more serious than those we saw at the beginning of the war in Ukraine and during the coronavirus pandemic. “This would be worse than coronavirus and Putin combined,” he says in an interview with the “Bild”.
Double punch
The expert notes that a crucial part of the global supply chain is going through this affected region. “This has a immense impact not only on energy supplies but besides on the flow of goods. For example, for Germany as an export country, this would be a double blow,” he explains.
— At 1 moment, all the crises we have just overcome would return.: Energy crisis, inflation, disruption in supply chains, and now the threat of mass unemployment, says Heinemann.
The national Government of Germany takes the situation seriously. abroad Minister Johann Wadeful has already contacted Iraqi abroad Minister Fuad Hussein. 1 of the topics of the conversation was the Strait of Ormuz. According to authoritative messages, Hussein threatened to increase oil prices to 200–300 dollars (736 – 1104) per barrel, a sharp increase in inflation in Europe, and even a fresh wave of refugees.
Expensive fuel and threat of gas shortage
The markets are already nervous. Following Israel's fresh attacks on Iran, the price of oil immediately increased by about 10 dollars (37 zł), to over 75 dollars (276 zł) per barrel. Experts foretell that in case of blockage the price of oil will be 120 dollars (442 zł) per barrel or more.
Gas prices in Germany have already gone up: on average up to EUR 1.75 (7.45 zł) per litre Super E10. And they could grow. — Double would mean a litre of E10 above €2.30 (9.80 zł) at gas stations,” the expert notes. That would be more than a 3rd more than the present.
— If there is no LNG in Qatar, In winter, we are threatened with gas shortages and fast increases in heating costs “Heidemann warns. This would mean cold winter, deficiency of goods and rising prices. The automotive manufacture inactive remembers well the deficiency of wiring beams during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The experts from the survey firm Lazard Geopolitical Advisory besides foresee in the utmost script the inflation rate "at crisis level" (more than 10%) and disruption of supply chains worldwide.
However, it is besides actual that Iran has already repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Ormuz in the past, but has never implemented these threats, but for sabotage operations.
The possible reason is that Mullahs would gotta face US intervention. — The consequences of the blockade would be so severe that the United States would be forced to reopen the Strait of Ormuz with armed forces to let the movement of ships, says Heinemann.
