Written by Tomasz Pawłuszko, Jędrzej Błaszczak, Jan Starosta
The subject of the improvement of the Tri-Sea Initiative has returned to the political, expert and public agenda. The 3SI subject can be found in programmes of economical congresses in Karpacz, Krynica and Warsaw. In the fall of 2025, the Parliamentary Tri-Morning Team, made up of parliamentarians, convened respective times in the Sejm to measure the possible for future improvement of the Initiative. ECI experts attended these meetings. In this text we make respective proposals for the improvement of the 3SI project.
Geopolitical background
The aggressive policy of the Russian Federation in Central Europe has led to a revival of many formats of cooperation in our region. Russia's aggression against Ukraine has brought the fundamental interests of NATO's east flank closer together in the field of defence and economical cooperation. The war and the resulting socio-economic crisis in the erstwhile russian States will lead to a multi-annual deepening of the gap between east EU/NATO countries and Russia and Belarus.
This situation can be compared to iron curtain 2.0. While Russia has lost most of its political, economical and energy ties with Europe, the deepened European cooperation of the erstwhile east Bloc states is gaining fresh perspectives. The fresh Iron Curtain covers not only ideological and military differences, but besides energy, industrial and technological issues.
3SI countries build resilience by creating fresh transport, energy and defence corridors. The aim of these projects is to increase the resilience of the region's societies to the impact of Russia and Belarus. LNG terminals in Poland and Croatia, the BRUA pipeline and the integration of energy networks have broken the dependence of most countries on energy resources from Russia. In the future, this infrastructure network will be an crucial component of technological sovereignty, including digital cooperation, common data centres, fibre networks and safety systems supported by artificial intelligence.
The cooperation of respective countries creates better negotiating conditions for cooperation between the region and the US and Asian Democratic countries on fresh technologies, 5G networks and digital resilience. The accession of Ukraine to this task adds the possible of utilizing additional defence, industrial and natural material possible of Ukraine for the full region and will accelerate Ukraine's integration into the European Union.
It follows from the above that the Trimorese Initiative should gain in Polish abroad policy the rank of at least equal to the Weimar Triangle. Thus 3SI should be an crucial vector of the Polish global strategy.
The request for consolidation. 10 steps.
In this section, we point to the 10 political and analytical actions that are feasible to strengthen the Tri-Sea Initiative.
In 2026 there will be a 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Tri-Sea Initiative and the anticipation of "new opening" of this task in connection with the presidency of Dr. Karol Nawrocki. It is so possible to intensify the dialog of the presidential/parliamentary and government centres of the region with the aim of (1) developing summaries and (2) identifying the priorities (or even strategies) of the region of the Trimorese for the next 10 years.
A second impulse is needed, akin to the 3SI Atlantic Council study "Completing Europe" in 2014.
Strategic reasoning always includes a longer time perspective. It besides requires evaluation of past actions. What did you do? How was this communicated? How does Poland see the region in 10 years erstwhile it wants to be its leader?
Today, the format of the 3 Seas needs to be drawn up (3) a political road map whose priorities and objectives will be adhered to by decision-makers regardless of political views. The Tri-Sea Decade will be a good chance for summarising the past decade (political acquis, investment, infrastructure), (4) foresight, (5) evaluation of economical improvement prospects, (6) assessment of regional advancement in different areas/branches, or (7) mapping of challenges (e.g. military threats, depopulation, labour markets, fresh technologies, position in the EU, integration of Ukraine).
In carrying out the call for "dideologies", the next 10 years (Step 2) of active public and technological diplomacy should be included in the strategy, aimed at partners in the EU, in peculiar Germany and France. There have been many myths and irregularities around the Tri-Sea. any believe that this is simply a format designed to weaken or even break the functioning of the European Union, which is not covered by facts. The overarching nonsubjective of these activities is to pragmatically present 3SI as a pillar of EU-wide safety and cohesion, liable for the infrastructure integration of Ukraine and strengthening the Single Market. This action is crucial to align 3SI with the Weimar Triangle.
In consequence to the expanding "military threats" (7) and the request to integrate the "defensive possible of Ukraine", the "new opening" in 2026 should formally establish the pillar of the "Double Application Infrastructure". precedence transport, energy and digital projects should be mandatoryly consulted with NATO and EU structures on military mobility (PESCO). This will guarantee their full defence compatibility and will effectively transform civilian 3SI investments into a "defensive corridor" strengthening the east flank.
Is that all politicians gotta do? Not necessarily. You can besides (8) usage the expert sector through expertise, scholarships or competitions for think tanks, universities and consulting companies to compose forecasts / strategies / threat maps for the Trimorian region for the next decade. A substantive political-expert debate on the condition of the region will surely interest another countries and organisations to participate reasonably in the format.
(9) It is essential to reconstruct the position of Tri-Morning Agent at the government centre in order to guarantee continuous interministerial coordination and to strengthen the intergovernmental dialog of the participants of the Initiative. It is besides worth considering (10) the establishment of a permanent Business Forum of the Trimorz, which would integrate key businesses and chambers of economy from the region, creating a platform for real cooperation and recognition of joint investment projects that go beyond the authoritative government framework.
Summary
Despite many crises, fresh years have been rather a good time for the economies of Central Europe. External threats (pandemics, migrations, war) reinforced local elite situation awareness, leading to the creation of fresh geopolitical projects aimed at expanding modern infrastructure, creating energy, transport, military and technological links.
The process of deepening cooperation is worth continuing because, first, it has brought many benefits and secondly, the threats to the region have not passed away. It is besides worth to identify 3SI issues in specified a way that they are treated pragmatically – as a average direction of abroad policy of the Polish Republic. Over the last years, the Trimorz Initiative has besides led to the creation of many tools for Poland's impact on the region.
It is worth taking advantage of the opportunities offered by Poland by the position of the largest state in the region, especially since all decision of Warsaw for the region is kindly accepted in another capitals of Central Europe. It should besides be mentioned that the support of the 3SI region would be an crucial voice of support for Poland's efforts to join the G20. This would be a clear signal that Poland's position is built not only on the basis of relations with powers, but besides through real regional leadership.
Photo by KPRP
