The Americans are now besides weak to impose specified rules on the full world. They are no longer a major maker of goods, and their expected consequence from another countries will not come. The Chinese-Indian-Russian rapprochement is simply a manifestation of this, even if their economical possible and markets are yet not closely combined.
Jacek Bartosiak, founder and owner of Strategy&Future
After president Donald Trump began imposing sanctions on another countries, India was besides targeted – a country with the largest population in the world, located in Eurasia. It is the largest democracy, a country frequently identified as having tremendous improvement potential. It is simply a substance of course for discussion, but there is no uncertainty that India is highly crucial in the American strategy to halt China and in the general redefining and modeling of global economical links.
President Trump tried to force submission by threatening sanctions unless India stopped certain actions. The key issue was the acquisition of natural materials, especially oil from Russia, its refining and resale to Western markets. India, like China, did not comply with these demands. As a result, Trump imposed advanced duties, primarily on the textile industry, affecting millions of Indian producers, intermediaries and traders.
The Americans acted in my mistaken opinion that global trade functions according to principles in which they are the consumer centre and decide rules. Meanwhile, the United States is no longer the main maker of goods and services in the world, including capital goods, on which the improvement of another countries depends. They are besides not the largest consumer marketplace – China plays this function – or the largest economical area. Nevertheless, the Americans, along with any experts in the world, stay in the illusion that they are inactive in the central position.
How did Prime Minister Modi react? There was an economical convergence between Indian and Chinese. Vladimir Putin was besides present during the meetings. This aspect is frequently overlooked in Poland, and it is worth noting that countries of the global South – especially India, Russia and China – have immense economical synergies.
Russia is the largest food maker in the planet and a key supplier of natural materials. China is the largest maker of material goods, including machinery and precise capital goods, essential for further production. India, on the another hand, has the largest population and consequently a huge, inexpensive workforce. In another words, there is simply a powerful asymmetry between the 3 countries, which in practice creates gigantic synergies. They complement each another and they request each other. If the Americans neglect to break this emerging block, it will prove to be a failure of their strategies on a global scale.
It is worth looking at from a broader perspective. The sea hegemon – first Britain and then the United States – had to supply freedom of strategical flows to keep its hegemony. This approach was defined in Crowe's memorandum from the early 20th century, which became the foundation of British politics and later American politics throughout the 20th century and part of the 21st century. Crowe wrote to the King and Prime Minister of large Britain that the sea hegemon could not block the free movement of strategical goods, as states would thus be restricted to form an anti-hegemon coalition. Blocking is nothing but “suffocation by the neck”.
In the meantime, Donald Trump's policy since April of this year has been like this – contrary to the logic of Crowe's memorandum. In my opinion, the Americans are now besides weak to impose specified rules on the full world. They are no longer a major maker of goods, and their expected consequence from another countries will not come. The Chinese-Indian-Russian rapprochement is simply a manifestation of this, even if their economical possible and markets are yet not closely combined.
In practice, Americans request the planet – global markets, so that their capital and services can function. Although verbally they say otherwise, reality denies it. That's why we have a immense game ahead of us. Let's see how it goes. Our leaders in Poland should stay vigilant due to the fact that it is inactive unclear who will yet win this confrontation.
In practice, Americans request the planet – global markets, so that their capital and services can function. Although verbally they say otherwise, reality denies it. That's why we have a immense game ahead of us. Let's see how it goes. Our leaders in Poland should stay vigilant due to the fact that it is inactive unclear who will yet win this confrontation.
