DELHI- According to projections from the Airports Council International (ACI), India will surpass China in air passenger traffic growth rate by 2026.
India currently operates 159 airports and plans to develop 50 more airport projects within the next five years. Domestic airlines have placed orders for over 1,700 planes, demonstrating confidence in the market’s future growth.
Photo- Wikipedia; Compiled by Aviation A2ZIndia to Beat China in Air Travel Rate
In 2025, China leads with a 12% growth rate in air passenger traffic, while India follows at 10.1%. However, this dynamic will reverse in 2026 when India’s growth rate is expected to reach 10.5% compared to China’s 8.9%. The trend continues in 2027, with India maintaining 10.3% growth against China’s 7.2%.
For the five years from 2023-2027, India’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for air passenger traffic is estimated at 9.5%, outpacing China’s 8.8%. Even more impressive, India is projected to be the fastest-growing aviation market globally for the 2023-2053 period with a CAGR of 5.5%, substantially higher than China’s 3.8%.
Stefano Baronci, Director General of ACI Asia Pacific & Middle East, described India as “a market that is developing and in the process of enhancing its infrastructure.” The organisation represents over 600 airports across the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions.
Photo: Harsh Tekriwal | AvgeekwithLensKey Driving Factors
A key factor driving this growth is India’s low baseline of air travel penetration. In 2023, India recorded just 0.1 yearly trips per capita, compared to China’s 0.5 and the United States’ 2.1.
By 2043, India’s yearly trips per capita are projected to increase to 0.4, still leaving substantial room for growth.
ACI Asia Pacific & Middle East President SGK Kishore predicts that major aviation hubs will develop in India within the next 5-10 years. He highlighted that India also enjoys strong domestic travel opportunities that will further boost growth.
Aviation sector stocks responded positively to these projections, with companies like Interglobe Aviation (6E), GMR Airports, and SpiceJet (SG) seeing gains of up to 5% in trading following the announcement.
Photo: By Alan Wilson, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=80385907Other Fast-Growing Markets
While India leads the growth projections, other rapidly expanding aviation markets include Indonesia (5.5% CAGR), Vietnam (4.6%), the Philippines (4.5%), Saudi Arabia (4.5%), Thailand (4.3%), Qatar (4.2%), Egypt (4%), and the UAE (3.8%).
Industry analysts view India’s aviation market as having exceptionally bright prospects as a long-term growth engine for global aviation, particularly due to the significant upside potential for greater penetration of civil aviation services among India’s large population.
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Top Indian Airports Witnessed Tremendous Growth in 2024
The post India to Beat China in Air Passenger Traffic Growth by 2026 appeared first on Aviation A2Z.
