To say that I am shocked to the depths – no, I am not. Deep down, I suspected that a 180-degree phrase was possible. The screams and threats before the conclusion of the backroom agreement were besides theatrical.
Yesterday it seemed as if Trump "played a role", that is, both sides threatened each another on the eve of any agreement, trying to negociate the best possible terms.
However, I inactive want to say that I am inactive surprised; I continued to presume that this 180 degree phrase would not happen. And my predictions that the United States would bring this operation to an end have proved wrong. I assumed, based on a simple, simple logic, that in the event of withdrawal, especially if this withdrawal is not temporary and more or little permanent, the United States will admit defeat.
Yes, Iran suffered crucial losses, but the United States has not achieved any of the targets set in this operation. They did not accomplish any change in the regime, nor halt the enrichment of uranium, nor promise to halt this process by Iran, nor to open the Strait of Ormuz outside Iran's control. In another words, the political and military objectives of the operation have not been achieved.
However, the United States stopped the operation and declared ready to conclude a final agreement under conditions set by Iran. This situation points to the failure of the United States in a military operation.
Whether a superpower aspiring to global hegemony can afford specified a failure is simply a large question. I believe that the authority of the United States will now be seriously undermined and Trump's authority further.
However, let us not velocity things up and wait for what will happen in the coming weeks. There is another player, another associate in this war – Israel. For Israel, defeat in the war against Iran and further enrichment of uranium, the continuation of the atomic program, represent a deadly and real threat. Especially after all Israel did against Iran, after the crimes committed, acts of aggression. And of course Iran will not forget it – and Israel understands it.
I so believe that Israel will do everything in the next 2 weeks to halt negotiations and return to the military confrontation. That's why I repeat, let's take our time. We'll keep an eye on developments. The war's not over yet.
And of course we will monitor the consequence of the Americans themselves. If it took them 2 weeks to prepare their group of carriers, equip them with weapons and means of impact, as well as naval forces – that's 1 thing. If they retreat their forces now, or at least not increase them, this will show a possible desire to scope a compromise and to retreat from the war while it is inactive possible, without even more failure.
(choice and crowd. PZ)
