It is fall 2025 and Putin's war was in a dead end, as was his relation with the American administration. The Russian economy is worse than in the last 3 years. Does that change Putin's logic and hence Putin's decisions?
In fresh weeks he has most likely been forced to answer questions about his troubled environment, whether he intends to end the war, and if so, how. It must besides explain the situation to the Russians, given that 250,000 of them have already fallen. He must besides bear in head that the hope of rapprochement with the US has yet failed. Finally, he must be painfully wondering how to make ends meet.
Indeed, all of these concerns would concern Putin if he were a typical leader, even an autocratic one. He doesn't mean anything like that. This is evident in all his statements in fresh days and weeks.
Among them were 2 long programme speeches at the 10th east economical Forum and the 21st gathering of the discussion club "Wałdaj" in Sochi, as well as all kinds of congratulations to the military, speeches before "pedagogues and mentors of participants of a peculiar military operation" and public talks with high-ranking sons of friends. All these statements combine into a single stream of Putin's consciousness. By delving into it, 1 can realize the logic behind its key decisions. Let's cut to the chase.
No compassion
Let's start with the nation. To what degree does Putin explain his victims to him? Of course not. In his many “military” considerations of fresh days there is no mention of Russian losses. They are only maliciously mentioning Ukrainian losses.
— Our boys come by themselves, join the army, they're fundamentally volunteers. We are not carrying out any mass mobilization, and much more forced, as the government in Kiev does. I didn't come up with that, believe me, these are nonsubjective numbers, and Western experts confirm them: 150 1000 deserters from January to August. And why? People were caught off the streets, so they run distant — and rightly so. I call them to flee, too. And the army is actually an army of workers and peasants. The elite does not fight; they simply send their citizens to slaughter, and that is it," he said recently.
Putin is convinced that Russian society will not ask him whether the Russian “elita” is fighting and how long he will “send to death” his Russian “workers and peasants”. If not, he would simply not pay attention to these delicate subjects.
Even if people die in Putin's world, he doesn't regret them. After all, as he said, “they show themselves to be unwaveringly faithful to their oath and to their duty, to their advanced training and endurance, besides during a peculiar military operation. Staff with dedication to national interests, independency of their homeland, in the year 80th anniversary of the large Victory".
No responsibility
However, it cannot be said that Putin does not love the Russian people. In his own way, he treats him well and tries to improve his existence. He invented, for example, how to combine his multiethnicity with Russian imperial nationalism.
— In the identity paper of a citizen of the Russian Empire there was no "nationality" section. What was that? "Religion". There was common value, spiritual value, belonging to east Christianity — Orthodoxy. So present it doesn't substance to us whether individual comes from the east, west, south or north. If he shares our values, he is 1 of us! erstwhile I say “Russians”, I do not mean those who are purely ethnically Russian in passports — and our boys have picked it up, as did people of different religions and different nationalities. Everyone proudly says, “I am a Russian soldier,” Putin said.
Being an obedient “Russian soldier”, if not on the front, then in thought, is according to Putin the main “traditional value” which makes man his subject.
Further string of article under video material
“ Russia’s strength lies in its first sovereign education system. Even during the large Patriotic War, our enemies lamented that our teachers had won, but it could be said that our spiritual education, our spiritual mentors, too. But the triumph was forged at school. This is the peculiar intent of the school: it transforms individuals into a nation, a community of people united by common spiritual values, traditions, culture, language and history, inseparably connected by common interests and a common future—a united Russian nation," he added.
In his speech Putin does not mention in a word that he is simply a servant of Russia and her people and is accountable to her. He sees Russia as his pet. And she treats her well: feeds, trains, and enjoys the tricks she's learned. The distance between Putin and his people is so large that he can't even imagine that he would argue him in anything.
No pressure
Nor does he anticipate any objection from his ‘elite’. Therefore, he does not even mention her in his deliberations. This supposedly highest class of society is not an entity to him — he does not have his own goals, his own will, or his own preferences.
A crowd of technocrats and billionaires, gathered around Putin and demanding the end of the war, exists only in the imagination of an increasingly smaller group of commentators. If Putin truly had to perceive to specified insistences or at least requests, it would surely be reflected in his public rhetoricEven if not directly, it's indirectly. He would invent fresh circumstances that prevent peace or, on the contrary, would convince him of the closeness of victory. But there's not 1 or the another in his speeches.
Vladimir Putin gives his hand to high-ranking officers while celebrating Homeland Defender Day, Moscow, 23 February 2024.Contributor / Contributor / Getty Images
As for the causes of the war, he repeats the same tales as in the last 4 years. He does not say anything about the prospects of peace, and he speaks of bloody and ineffective fighting on the front in cold blood — he scrupulously mentions Ukrainian towns where Russian troops “enter” into which “war action continues” or in which “groups of troops occupy 2 thirds of cities” etc.
Putin feels no force from his surroundings. This besides applies to economical policy, even though right now there is simply a request for major changes. Whether or not that happens is clearly his exclusive decision. Otherwise, he would shift work to subordinates and not talk as patronizingly as he does today.
— We must further strengthen macroeconomic stableness and reduce inflation. Over the last 2 years, we have had growth rates far higher than the planet average. But at the end of last year, we said to ourselves: to fight inflation, we must sacrifice it. And the central bank raised our main interest rate... I hope it doesn't frost the economy again. But we will devote these growth rates to restoring macroeconomic indicators," he said.
Unlike the people Putin sees the Russian economy not as a dog, but as a car. To drive it in the best possible way, you gotta repair it from time to time and even change its mode of operation. Putin has no uncertainty that it will proceed to service him.
This is guaranteed by fresh personnel — although biologically derived from old ones. During his gathering with Deputy Prime Minister for Agriculture and Industry, Patrushev Junior Putin even limited his distinctive speech and plunged into listening to the talker's bravados, interrupting him only occasionally with wise remarks and receiving automatic answers.
Sentiment to Trump
Finally, abroad affairs. In addition to Putin's typical 19th-century "concert" rhetoric of imperial powers as the perfect order of the planet and forced bows before the rulers of China and India, 2 more recurring themes have emerged in fresh weeks.
The first — a joked hostility to European leaders due to their promises to arm their armies. The second is simply a stream of individual affection for Trump.
The persistence and abundance of these compliments seem illogical, given Russia's clearly deteriorating relations with the United States. possibly this is any kind of subtle game. However, I do not regulation out that the substance is simpler. Trump can be so endearing to Putin that he can't stand disagreements between 2 countries. In a planet where the absolute ruler of the Russian Federation lives, he can full indulge in and practice purely individual feelings independently of interstate disputes.
And in this world, Putin makes key decisions.. He feels comfortable in it. He feels he is among those who form the destiny of the world. And there is nothing to prevent him from believing that in his own country everything is under control, that the Russian lower and higher spheres will carry out his all command and that he bears no work to them.
Therefore, in the coming months, the decision to end the war can only be made by Putin of his own free will. There is presently no 1 or anything to put force on him from outside. Military and economical difficulties are obvious, but they have no influence on it and can ignore it for a long time.
This means that hope for the end of the war should be put off, at least until next year.
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